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Leeds v Southampton

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A matter of weeks ago, this contest looked as though it may be pivotal in seeing who might make it back into the Premier League. As we approach kick-off on the final day of the regular season, it is looking like simply a potential precursor to a potential play-off final.

It is still possible for Leeds to win automatic promotion, but they would have to win this match, and even then it is not in their hands. If Ipswich get a point at home to Huddersfield then the Tractor Boys will take second place and a ticket back to the top division.

Nevertheless, this should be an entertaining encounter in its own right. Leeds will have no choice but to go for the win, in the hope that Huddersfield can turn Ipswich over, and this could play into the hands of Southampton. The Saints could really use a change in momentum before heading into a play-off campaign and a handsome victory over Leeds would certainly help with that, especially with half-an-eye on a potential meeting at Wembley in a couple of weeks.

Leeds v Southampton Best Bets

➡️ Leeds to win & over 1.5 goals @ 1.73 on Betfair
➡️ Will Smallbone to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.67 on Betfair
➡️ Crysencio Summerville to have 2+ shots on target @ 2.62 on bet365

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📂 Leeds v Southampton Cheat Sheet

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets to look for player fouls won stats or any other markets, and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find Leeds v Southampton match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off. If you’re looking for a new bookmaker check out the best bet builder bookmakers.

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⚔️ Leeds v Southampton Head-to-Head

Both teams have been up in the play-off positions for the vast majority of the season, but have always been playing catch-up with the top two positions after indifferent starts.

Southampton made some in-roads after the first meeting of these two back on the 30th of September. Saints got a great start with Adam Armstrong putting them ahead after two minutes, Will Smallbone doubled the lead at a good time for Saints as Leeds looked like they were just coming back into the match. Adam Armstrong then put the game beyond Leeds before half-time, making their second-half recovery somewhat redundant.

Saints had three big chances to Leeds’ zero in the first half of the match, Russell Martin managed to get the better of Daniel Farke from a tactical perspective to set up the victory. Both managers are under pressure as they, in all likelihood, have not achieved their original season goal of automatic promotion so their performance in a potential play-off campaign could be crucial for their futures, in the immediate and long term.

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📊 Leeds Form and Stats

Leeds’ form since the return from the international break has been surprisingly poor. The Whites were looking unstoppable from the turn of the year but as the finishing line has come they have stumbled with one win in the last five matches with three defeats in those five.

This included losing their unbeaten home record with a 1-0 defeat to Blackburn Rovers. This defeat came in a similar manner to many of their other poor results, the opposition playing a low defensive line, frustrating Leeds by denying them space around the box and playing on the counter-attack.

Despite having excellent forward players, Leeds have found the task of breaking down teams effectively quite difficult throughout the season. Their recent win at Middlesbrough showed that when a team does come out against them Leeds can be too good, which, of course, is why the majority of teams will look to sit in and hit on the counter. Russell Martin’s Southampton are likely to back themselves though.

Also, despite not winning their last two home games, Leeds’ home record is outstanding. They are operating at a +1.6 xG differential over their last ten at home, a really dominant statistic.

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📊 Southampton Form and Stats

Southampton’s performance levels have really dropped off of late, mainly since their position of fourth couldn’t be changed.

Motivation levels have clearly been affected and they have lost three in a row – to Cardiff, Leicester, and Stoke.

Going back a bit further their Championship away performance level is fairly good. They have won the xG battle in seven of the last ten away matches, but have only won four of them. There is an argument to say that their style of play does lend itself to attaining positive xG differences but they haven’t actually been that effective at turning this chance differential into wins and points.

They have lost three of their last four away games, drawing the other. Six of the last ten away matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and six have seen both teams score.

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💰 Leeds v Southampton Best Bets 

Given the fact that both teams are in poor form it could be difficult to separate the two teams, but Leeds’ performance level, though down on what they have achieved for most of the season, seems to be a bit higher than Southampton’s.

Given the fact that Leeds will still surely want to go for the win, in the hope that Huddersfield can do them a favour at Portman Road, and their chance creation dominance at home, the best bet comes to support Leeds in this fixture. It should also be a good tactical set-up for Leeds, with Southampton not employing the frustration tactics that Leeds have struggled with of late.

There should also be some goals here. The stats for previous final days suggest that when either team has something to play for, the goal average is much higher than when the game is a dead rubber. Also given the fact that Southampton’s away matches have a high goal average and Leeds have created the highest xG in the league this season, the best bet is for Leeds to win and over 1.5 goals at 1.73 on Betfair.

There are another couple of recommendations here as well. Will Smallbone is likely to be the sitter in midfield, not only will he be responsible for setting the tempo, he could also be the one to have to deal with foul magnet Georginio Rutter when he drops in deep to collect the ball. Smallbone to commit 1+ fouls is at 1.67 on Betfair, something he has done in three of his last four starts.

Finally, in the promise of this being a more open match, Crysencio Summerville, the Championship Player of the Year, should be backed in the shots on target markets. Summerville is available for 2+ shots on target at 2.62 on bet365. He has been a high-shot volume man all season, and one would expect him to try and fire Leeds to a final-day win.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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