Calvert-Lewin has been brilliant for Leeds in the Premier League this season, netting 12 goals across his 27 starts in the division - making him Leeds’ top scorer, four goals ahead of Noah Okafor with eight goals to his name.

Calvert-Lewin found the target from two shots when the sides met earlier in the season, and has taken 69 shots overall in the top-flight (2.51 per 90). He’s seen 31 of those efforts find the target (1.13 per 90), and should be able to pose a threat to Tottenham here, having just netted in Leeds’ 3-1 win over Burnley last time out.

Only seven players have scored more goals in the Premier League this season than Calvert-Lewin, showing his overall level but also how crucial he is to this Leeds side.

Richarlison committed two fouls in Tottenham’s crucial 2-1 win over Aston Villa last time out, taking his total count for the season to 21 fouls across his 17 starts in the Premier League (1.11 per 90).

I think Richarlison is the perfect striker to lead the line for Tottenham at the moment, not solely due to his ability, but also because he’s been in this exact situation before - guiding Everton to safety when they were in trouble a few seasons ago. This experience is crucial when you’re battling at the bottom of the league, and also is an experience that not many other Tottenham players have been through before.

It’s likely that Richarlison faces up against a back three here, so he will be outnumbered when contesting challenges. He gets through quite a lot of work off the ball too, so this busy nature can contribute to Richarlison committing at least one foul in what is a crucial game for both of these sides.

No side has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League than Tottenham (90 - 2.57 per game). It’s clear that the North London side have struggled with handling the emotions of being in a relegation battle, and that should be particularly relevant here as they face off against one of their direct rivals in the battle to survive in the Premier League.

Tottenham committed 12 fouls and picked up three yellow cards on their trip to Elland Road earlier in the season, showing how Leeds can bring out the aggression we’re looking for from Tottenham. 

Roberto De Zerbi’s presence on the touchline should only fuel the fire more, with his erratic and passionate approach starting to have an effect on the Tottenham players - who played with more fight and grit against Aston Villa last time out than I’ve seen from them all season.

The initial league meeting between these sides saw BTTS as Tottenham came away 2-1 winners over Leeds at Elland Road. That victory feels like an age ago now, when Tottenham were still under the tutelage of Thomas Frank and the Lilywhites now find themselves on the edge of the drop zone - realistically needing all three points here to take the fight to the final few weeks of the campaign with Forest and West Ham also still in the mix.

Tottenham’s home form is one of the main reasons why they find themselves in the lower reaches of the table, they’ve only managed to win two of their 17 home matches in the Premier League this season (v Brentford and Burnley) and have picked up the joint fewest points at home of any Premier League side (11), level with Burnley. Tottenham have notably conceded 30 goals across these games, which should give the appropriate encouragement to Leeds.

Both sides saw BTTS in their most recent assignments, both winning games against Aston Villa and Burnley. I can see chances for both sides here given the context, neither side has a real advantage over the other so i’m happy to take BTTS at this price as the relegation battle in the Premier League inches closer towards a conclusion.

Conor Gallagher has been repeatedly misprofiled by managers during stints at Chelsea and Atletico Madrid, but I think Roberto De Zerbi is platforming him in the correct way. If you think back to when Gallagher was at his best, for both Chelsea and Crystal Palace in the Premier League, it was when he was playing higher up the pitch and being encouraged to get in the box.

Gallagher is not a pretty player to watch, but he’s so effective in this area of the pitch. There has been a tendency from managers to play him in a deeper role, but his skillset isn’t suited to that - he’s not that technically gifted, and his main strengths lie in his energy and perseverance, traits that make him an excellent second striker.

Gallagher scored a brilliant goal for Tottenham against Aston Villa last time out, and was one of the better players on the pitch - constantly looking to get in the box and playing ahead of a midfield pivot of Joao Palhinha and Rodrigo Bentancur. Tottenham looked a lot more settled with this structure, and we should see Gallagher continue in this more advanced role, which gives him a decent chance of registering another goal contribution for Tottenham, adding to the two he’s managed since arriving at the club.

No Leeds player has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League this season than Ethan Ampadu (nine). Leeds actually have quite a modest card count overall for a side battling towards the bottom of the table, but the context surrounding this fixture would suggest that we see an increase in their card numbers here, with this being a six-pointer in the relegation battle.

Leeds are priced at 1.44 to pick up 2+ cards here, a line that is usually around 1.7-1.8 for their card record. Ampadu has picked up four cautions across his last 10 domestic appearances for Leeds, including each of his last two matches for Daniel Farke’s side against Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final, and in Leeds’ 3-1 win over Burnley last time out.

Joao Palhinha hasn’t featured as much as I thought he would for Tottenham this season, but he has retained his tag of being reckless and a bit careless with his challenges. I think De Zerbi likes him because of his passion. We saw this when he would made challenges against Villa and then celebrated as if he had just scored a last-minute winner.

Palhinha has picked up six yellow cards across his 20 starts in the Premier League this season, while maintaining a foul average of just 1.06 fouls committed per 90. This surprised me when I saw it, given how often I see Palhinha charge into challenges, but it does show that the fouls that Palhinha is committing are likely to end up with a caution, or at least a note in the referee’s mind for his next challenge.

Palhinha committed two fouls and was shown a yellow card when the sides met earlier in the season, with Tottenham coming away 2-1 winners on that occasion. Tottenham have picked up more cards than any other side in the Premier League this season (90).