In this article…
Leeds v West Brom
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Competition: Championship
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Kick off: 20:00
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Watch live: Sky Sports Main Event
Two of the pre-season favourites for promotion meet at Elland Road under what is bound to be a raucous atmosphere under the lights.
Leeds United fans are getting more and more concerned about the direction that their season seems to be heading in. There have only been two league matches, but only one point earned. The real problems though have been the perception of the decisions taken behind the scenes.
Part of the problem is the chaos. The 49ers takeover has not been smooth, but also, there is a degree of transfer chaos for most relegated Premier League sides, especially if they have been in the top division for more than two years. The recent loss of Jack Harrison was probably expected at the beginning of the summer, but the manner of his departure, on loan, has left a bit of a sour taste for some Whites fans.
Not all is rosy in the West Brom garden either of course. Again, this is more of an off-pitch situation than the football itself. The squad already has a high degree of quality, so their lack of activity in the transfer market is a blow, but not necessarily a fatal one.
As always, there are some good value betting angles to take advantage of in the Leeds v West Brom Bet Builder options. This preview has an intriguing over 3/1 shot and a bigger 12/1 priced alternative, levelling up on the original angles. Here’s what we have in store ahead of the Elland Road clash:
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Farke needs time and consistency to make Leeds a success
There have certainly been signs in the opening few matches that Leeds have the talent on the pitch to be successful. The options in a fully fit Leeds squad would outstrip almost every other Championship side, the obvious issue is getting them all out on the field together.
Between genuine injuries, transfer sagas, and players training separately from the squad, there is far too much noise to be able to create a cohesive picture on the pitch. This is not necessarily a reflection on Daniel Farke and, indeed, one has a degree of sympathy for the manager in these conditions.
There is a real disparity between the Premier League and Championship finances, which is why parachute payments exist in the first place, but the gap is continuing to grow. The issue that exacerbated this for 2023 is the fact that all of the relegated teams had been in the Premier League for at least three seasons. In Leicester and Southampton’s case, they had been in the league for a long time.
In these cases there are players that are a) earning a huge amount of money for a second-tier side and b) have been established Premier League players, so there has been a lot of turnover and turmoil this summer. Leicester have weathered the storm since in their league results, though performances have been shaky, Southampton are seeing a lot of teething issues, and Leeds are encountering the same.
The question is, will Leeds’ problems be overcome quickly, and how will this affect this match and then also their overall season?
Leeds team news
As discussed, it is very tough keeping up with the ebb and flow in the Leeds squad at any one time. However, there could be a couple of changes from the Birmingham match.
Ilan Meslier is back to being a pretty definite number one in goal though. The Frenchman needs a stabilising season after a real loss of confidence in his final Premier League campaign.
In terms of outfield shape, Farke is likely to use a 4-2-3-1. Luke Ayling is likely to take up the right-back slot with Sam Byram at left-back. Joe Rodon is pressing for a start in central defence, but Charlie Cresswell and Pascal Struijk may well get to keep their places for now.
The two holding midfielders are most likely to be Ethan Ampadu, who has looked excellent so far since his move, and Archie Gray could continue alongside him.
The three attacking midfielders are where some depth issues rear their head in the current Leeds squad. Dan James will be on the right, Joe Gelhardt could play in the #10 role and Ian Poveda could start on the left. Georginio Rutter should be fit enough to take the striker’s role.
West Brom’s strikerless formation illustrates current issues for Corberan
West Brom fans are very much used to the club being big fish in the Championship pond. The Baggies haven’t finished lower than the top ten of the second tier since 2000 and have been a Premier League club for more than half of that time.
As a result of that continued success and a consistent home crowd in the mid-20,000 region, one can see why the club received interest from Chinese owner Guochuan Lai. As time has passed though, (and two consecutive mid-table Championship finishes don’t either boost the coffers or boost confidence) then more questions have come about the direction of the club.
Indeed, there have been restrictions on West Brom’s summer business as a result of the financial issues. This is having a knock-on effect on the pitch as there is a lack of refreshment in the squad. However, this is a squad that, under Corberan, hit an average points per game that was of play-off finishing standard last term.
With that foundation, though missing last year’s central defensive rock Dara O’Shea, Albion are still a strong outfit. The addition of Josh Maja, when finally fully fit, should help them with their attacking output. Daryl Dike has been very unlucky with fitness since his move and Brandon Thomas-Asante was overlooked last time out, despite no other striker being named, suggesting that he doesn’t necessarily enjoy the full support of his manager.
The three goals Albion managed in that strikerless formation suggests that Corberan may well stick with it for this match, but it is unlikely to be the long-term solution for the season.
West Brom team news
The much-needed home victory last week means that Corberan could stick with the same starting XI, despite Maja being close to full fitness and Jeremy Sarmiento impressing from the bench.
Alex Palmer will be in goal, behind a three-man defence of Semi Ajayi, Cedric Kipre, and Erik Pieters. Jayson Molumby and Okay Yokuslu will hold in midfield and the width will come from wing-backs Darnell Furlong and Conor Townsend.
The strikerless front three will see Jed Wallace, Matt Phillips, and John Swift combine forces and, hopefully for the Baggies, provide the finishing touches too.
Leeds v West Brom Cheat Sheet
Here is our Cheat Sheet for this game. Both sides have started below par for pre-season expectations amongst the fanbases.
Jayson Molumby is always a standout shout for card/foul angles given his fondness for getting stuck in. The Irish international racked up a whopping 10 yellow cards last season, averaging over a foul per game in the process (1.18). Up against another powerhouse in terms of fouls, Ethan Ampadu, this midfield battle has all the signs of getting feisty, and given Molumby will be anchoring the midfield against a Leeds team looking to prove a point, backing him for cards/fouls looks to be a nice extra addition to any bet builder.
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ABC’s 3/1 Leeds v West Brom bet builder
⚽ Over 2.5 goals
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Odds: 1.85
There has been a degree of chaos in both Leeds and West Brom matches so far.
Leeds’ players seem to respond well at home, especially if going behind. While this is far from the ideal strategy, it was seen a lot in Leeds’ Premier League days and on opening day vs Cardiff.
West Brom have looked a threat from set pieces with Wallace’s delivery and their three central defenders, so there looks to be multiple avenues to goal.
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🟨 Over 4.5 cards
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Odds: 1.57
There have been cards all over West Brom matches so far this season.
On the opening day, there were 7, 4 for Blackburn and 3 for West Brom, at Ewood Park. They managed another 3 against Stoke in the League Cup with Stoke getting 3, and got another 3 at home to Swansea, with visitors getting 4. This means an average number of cards of 6.67 in their matches so far.
Leeds have also had two yellows per match in their Championship matches so are well able to contribute to this total.
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🚀 Dan James to have 2+ shots
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Odds: 1.36
The former Manchester United winger is firing off shots for fun at the beginning of this season, optimising Daniel Farke’s attacking gameplan.
James has had 12 shots in his three matches so far, though 6 came in the Carabao Cup. That still means that he is averaging three in a Championship match, which should see him fly over this target with comfort.
Ian Poveda as the other wide attacker is often more of a creator than a finisher and neither Rutter nor Gelhardt are known for their huge shot volume so it could be down to James to provide that.
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ABC’s 12/1 Leeds v West Brom bet builder
⚽ Over 3.5 goals
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Odds: 3.30
Half of the matches involving these sides have breached this line.
It is easy to see this match descending into a bit of a free-for-all at Elland Road and it is often the case that when a match goes over the 2.5 line, which can only happen with one team ahead of the other, then another goal comes along as the match opens up. This is the play here.
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🟨 Over 2.5 West Brom cards
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Odds: 1.87
The reasoning for the over 4.5 cards selection hung upon West Brom’s propensity for card receiving. They have had 3 yellows in every match so far and this seems a sound price for that trend to continue, especially in the atmosphere we will have in this match. Molumby and Ampadu should be a fierce battle in midfield. High stakes will equal high panic, and we expect West Brom to carry on their card-happy trend here.
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🚀 Dan James to have 3+ shots
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Odds: 2.25
There hasn’t yet been a match this campaign where Daniel James has failed to cover this line in terms of shots taken. Leeds will want to be on the front foot here and so getting odds against about this outcome seems like a generous shout from the bookmakers.
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