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Leicester v Leeds

If any team has the stature, quality, and desire to bring Leicester back to the pack at this still-early stage of the season, it could well be Leeds United.

Daniel Farke’s side made a bit of a stuttering start to the campaign as they were continuously having to deal with rumours and upheaval around potential outgoings and incomings. However, once the squad was set, Leeds have become one of the more dominant teams in this division.

Indeed, this match may very well feature the two most complete teams in the league. Leicester have already shown that they are capable of winning football matches in a variety of ways, but they have become very solid defensively. This is mostly a result of manager Enzo Maresca nailing his strategy by means of controlling football matches.

Leeds will seek to break that control and the weapons are there for them to do that. Joel Piroe will probably start, but his goal contributions have faded somewhat in recent weeks, but, just as that is happening, Georginio Rutter, Daniel James, and Crysencio Summerville are all stepping up to provide threats from all angles.

This could very well be a great game for a bet, and in this article, we will break down the key stats to give you the best possible chance of landing a nice Friday night bet builder winner to set yourself up for the rest of the weekend.

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Leicester v Leeds Cheat Sheet

This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

You can find Leicester v Leeds on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.

Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…

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🔵 Leicester stats: High shots on target history

Leicester have the highest xG numbers in the Championship and they are able to translate that into the fourth-highest shots on target numbers and the second-highest number of goals in the league as well, just behind Ipswich.

This means that we can expect Illan Meslier to be a busy man in the Leeds United goal. Leeds have generally been good defensively this season, but the Leicester attack, at home, is something that they haven’t had to face yet. Indeed, when they have faced a decent quality attack in the recent past, away at Southampton is a good example, they were unable to keep them at bay.

Leicester’s variety of attackers, with either Jamie Vardy or Kelechi Iheanacho through the middle, Stephy Mavididi on the left, potentially Kasey McAteer on the right and two high-quality midfield 8s coming through are difficult to resist. It could be worth getting on the shots on target market for the Foxes.

Prediction: Leicester to have 5+ shots on target @ 1.53

Prediction: Leicester to have 6+ shots on target @ 2.10

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🟡 Leeds stats: Create big chances at will

Leeds are probably the closest match to Leicester to be found in the Championship stats so far in 2023/24.

If it wasn’t for their sloppy start to the season it would be easy to see them up in the automatic promotion places alongside the Foxes, and clearly, that is their aim. However, they are tending to run just a little bit behind Leicester in most of the key data points.

However, one data point in which Leeds do better Leicester is the ‘big chances created’ metric. Indeed, Leeds are joint-top of that particular metric in the entire league, which demonstrates their ability to threaten their opponents’ goal.

Therefore it is worth considering some of the goal markets in this match. With both teams owning such potent attacks, delving into the both teams to score market looks like a good move.

Prediction: Both teams to score @ 1.57

Prediction: Both teams to score 2+ goals @ 4.5

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🎯 Leicester offensive stats: Dewsbury-Hall an underrated danger from midfield

The strength in Leicester’s attack is that it comes from everywhere.

They have Premier League quality in almost every position, and that is not limited to their centre forwards, however, Kelechi Iheanacho is a good player to start with. He currently leads the Foxes in shot numbers with just over three per 90.

However, it is highly likely that the centre-forward minutes will be split between Iheanacho and Vardy, so a safer bet may be looking elsewhere for a player who is more likely to play a larger portion of the game, but still carries a big shot threat.

Stephy Mavididi is an option, he got off six shots against Southampton in a big Friday night game a few weeks ago and clearly enjoys the big occasion, but Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall could be the key man here.

The midfield schemer is not afraid of a shot or two, indeed, he has taken by far the most shots for Leicester this season and averages the second-highest in the team at 2.86 per 90. His odds are still not yet reflective of the way that he is being used by the Foxes in the Championship

Prediction: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to have 2+ shots @ 1.4

Prediction: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to have 3+ shots @ 2.38

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🎯 Leeds offensive stats: Summerville to continue shot-happy ways

Leeds are up against the meanest defences in the league by way of goals against, but we have seen in many matches, Coventry on the opening day, and even QPR last week, that teams have had some joy against Leicester, so they are not impenetrable by any means.

Similarly to Leicester, there is quality all over the Leeds front four, and from the subs bench as well. However, we should concentrate our focus on likely starters to get the best value from the odds available.

Joel Piroe will continue to be the main man for goals, despite his recent dry spell, but his prices are shorter than someone who has actually outshot all of his teammates so far this season. That man is Crysencio Summerville.

Summerville leads the Leeds data in goals, shots taken and shots on target, and yet his prices are reasonable given that information. Summerville will probably start on the left of the forward pack but can pop up all over the pitch and his dynamic running often gets him into great positions.

Prediction: Crysencio Summerville to have 1+ shot on target @ 2.0

Prediction: Crysencio Summerville to have 2+ shots on target @ 5.5

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🛑 Leicester defensive stats: Returning Pereira a foul shout

We are likely to see a return for Portuguese right back Ricardo Pereira for this match.

If that is the case then he is an excellent shout in the fouls market. He will be up against the likes of Summerville with Sam Byram offering support around the outside.

Not only this but Maresca wants his full backs to play in central midfield as well, which means that Pereira could get involved in that battle, or be caught out trying to get back into position during transition, especially against the speed of Leeds’ forward players.

He has the third-highest number of fouls of Leicester players who are likely to start in this game, but his prices are still backable. He is also a possible yellow card shout as he has only had one yellow despite his foul count, so is nowhere near a ban.

Prediction: Ricardo Pereira to commit 1+ foul @ 1.44

Prediction: Ricardo Pereirato commit 2+ fouls @ 3.1

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🛑 Leeds defensive stats: Rutter to get involved in duels

As well as being dangerous going forward, the Leeds forwards are asked to be diligent in their defensive work.

Joel Piroe is on record as not being the greatest presser in the world by Daniel Farke earlier in the season, who intimated that this was the reason why Rutter was preferred in the centre forward role.

Rutter has committed the highest number of fouls so far this season for Leeds. He has also been the most fouled Leeds player, so this indicates that he gets involved in plenty of physical confrontations with the opposition. This has the tendency to build up over the course of the game, so if Rutter gets a lot of minutes we should see multiple fouls on either side.

Prediction: Georginio Rutter to commit 1+ foul @ 1.20

Prediction: Georginio Rutter to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.0

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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