💎 Gem Bet: Igor Jesus - Over 0.5 Fouls Committed @ 1.61 (Bet365)

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We took this angle earlier on in the season when Nottingham Forest welcomed Manchester United to the City Ground. It took just five minutes for Jesus to commit a foul on that occasion, and he’s generously priced to do the same at Anfield here. 

Sean Dyche stepping in as head coach has completed a strange cycle for Forest this season, beginning with the pragmatism of Nuno Espirito Santo before switching to a chaotic approach under Ange Postecoglu which was quickly cut short, paving the way for Dyche to take the side back to their conservative roots. 

This is relevant as strikers that play in a side using a low block often end up with a few foul involvements. This is due to the fact that the striker is usually quite isolated when the ball is sent up to him, resulting in the forward having to scrap for opportunities. This was particularly evident in Jesus’ cameo against Manchester United with the Brazilian contesting 22 duels on that occasion, losing more than any other player (17). 

Jesus has committed six fouls across his 328 minutes of Premier League football this season (1.65 per 90) and can extend that promising record here as Forest travel to one of the most difficult grounds in the Premier League, though it is a ground they have fond memories of having been one of the few sides to beat Liverpool at Anfield last season.

Jesus has also shown his aggressive nature in the Europa League this season with four fouls across his three appearances in the competition (1.57 per 90) and picking up three yellow cards in the process. Jesus is an eccentric striker that will look to chase down lost causes, though he is unlikely to get much joy up against the centre back partnership of Van Dijk and Konate. 

We’re getting even better value on this selection compared to when we last backed it, Jesus is priced as low as 1.13 on other comparable bookmakers to commit a foul in this encounter, making his 1.61 price here very appealing when looking over his numbers this term.