This Europa League clash between Lyon and Manchester United has all the ingredients for a fiery, card-filled contest. Lyon’s matches have been consistently heated, averaging 3.95 cards per game this season. They've received multiple bookings in each of their last five matches, with their aggressive and passionate style often putting them on the wrong side of the referee. United aren’t far behind either — their last four games have seen an eye-watering 20 cards shown, with each of those matches producing at least three bookings.

Both teams are known for intensity and fast-paced play, and given the stakes involved at this point in the competition, tensions are expected to run high. Considering the stats — Lyon’s five straight matches with 3+ cards, United’s 20 cards in four games, and the overall trends from both sides — this bet looks like a banker.

A selection that is relevant given recent press conference quotes, United shot-stopper Onana looks a decent price to make at least three saves at the Groupama Stadium on Thursday night.

The Cameroonian was quoted as saying United were 'way better' than their French counterparts. It took two days for Lyon midfielder and former United anchor Nemanja Matic to label Onana the 'worst keeper in United's history'. His form over the last season and a half would indicate the Serbian may not be far off.

Lyon's shooting statistics lead this selection to be good value at 1.57. They rank second amongst every team to play in the Europa League this season for shots on target per 90 (6.60), only behind Galatasaray.

As for Onana's saves stats, they currently sit at 2.50 per 90, and he's faced his fair share of shots on target during this Europa League campaign. The recent shots on target United have conceded in the Europa League read 3-3-2-4-4-4-7-3. 

United have shown they wilt under the pressure in recent years, and this is their biggest game of the season. Lyon are the best team they've played this European campaign, and Onana to make three saves at 1.57 is the play.

Despite Manchester United’s rollercoaster campaign, one player who’s consistently looked to make things happen is Argentine winger Alejandro Garnacho. The 20-year-old is never shy to have a go at goal, and his stats reflect that. He averages 2.6 shots per appearance, but when adjusted to 90 minutes, that figure climbs to 3.86 in all competitions — showing his willingness to test goalkeepers whenever he's on the pitch. What’s even more convincing is Garnacho’s recent consistency.

In his last seven starts, he’s registered 25 shots, averaging over 3.5 per match and hitting the 2+ shot line in every single game. He tends to drift inside and cut in from wide positions, making him a dual threat with both feet. Against a Lyon defence that’s struggled to contain direct wide players, Garnacho should find the space and freedom to get his shots away.

Noussair Mazraoui is being slightly underpriced in the foul market for this clash considering his track record. The Moroccan right-back has shown a persistent habit of committing fouls, averaging 1.26 fouls per appearance across the season. When you break it down to per-90 stats, the number climbs to 1.41 — highlighting how regularly he gets involved in physical duels.

Even more telling is his recent form: Mazraoui has committed at least one foul in 11 of his last 12 starts, racking up 22 fouls during this spell. As a full-back who likes to push forward and defend aggressively one-on-one, especially when isolated, he’s a prime candidate to get whistled. Against a tricky Lyon side likely to feature pacy wingers and overlapping full-backs, it’s hard to see Mazraoui avoiding the referee’s book.

This Europa League tie between Lyon and Manchester United is expected to produce fireworks — and goals from both sides. Lyon have been involved in goal-filled encounters lately, with both teams scoring in seven of their last nine matches across all competitions.

Their attacking intent is undeniable, but their defensive vulnerabilities have also left them exposed, especially in European games where five of their last seven outings have ended with both sides scoring. Manchester United have had a similar profile.

They’ve seen BTTS land in six of their last nine matches overall, and in five of their last six in Europe. Their defence continues to leak chances, while their attack — led by the likes of Fernandes, Højlund, and Garnacho — remains dangerous.

It's hard to think where this Man United side would be without captain Bruno Fernandes. So timely was former United captain Roy Keane's outburst calling out the United captain several weeks ago that it was inevitable the Portuguese international would bounce back.

The price of 2.40 for Fernandes to have a goal contribution in France is attractive. His 31 goal contributions across all competitions are far ahead of anyone else in this United squad, with Alejandro Garnacho sitting second on just 17.

His attacking output also far outweighs any of his teammates. He averages 9.36 progressive passes per 90, match that up against the second-best against the second-highest amongst available United players (Casemiro 4.95 PrgP P90), and it's easy to see why he's the main focal point of attack.

There won't be any doubts about his status as a starter, and 2.40 seems a solid price for United's captain to score or assist.

Uruguayan international has made a steady albeit unspectacular start to his career at Old Trafford. The €60 million arrival from PSG was brought in to sure up the midfield, and while his limitations on the ball have been clear, his consistencies in the fouling department have followed him throughout his career.

No United player to feature in ten games or more has averaged more fouls per 90 in all competitions (2.23), and he also tops United's card charts for this season with 11 across every competition. He's likely to partner Casemiro in midfield on Thursday and given the Brazlian's legs are past their prime, it will be up to Ugarte to cover the distance and break up play in the midfield.

As for likely opponents, it will most likely be former Bayern Munich midfielder Corentin Tolisso and US international Tanner Tessmann in Ugarte's way on Thursday night. Tolisso averages 1.81 fouls drawn per 90, while Tessman averages 1.13 fouls drawn per 90.

Swedish referee Glenn Nyberg will be tasked with officiating this quarter-final first-leg, and he dished up three yellow cards in his only Europa League appearance this season.

Odds of 3.20 for Ugarte to get booked look a solid play ahead of this crucial clash for United at the Groupama Stadium. 

Patrick Dorgu, whether playing full-back or wing-back has been drawing fouls at an alarming rate. He is currently fouled on average 2.63 times per game, which rises to 3.01 per 90 minutes played. In his eight games for United, Dorgu has been fouled multiple times in six of those games, totaling 21 fouls suffered during that stretch. His dribbling ability and high involvement on the ball makes him a magnet for challenges, especially from defenders who can’t match his agility. 

Lyon average 11.87 fouls per game as a team, and with their aggressive approach and tendency to concede free-kicks in wide areas, Dorgu is likely to find himself on the receiving end again. At 1.53, this bet is well worth backing based on current trends and playing style.