💎 Gem Bet: Ruben Neves to have 1+ Shots v Man City @ 1.53 (bet365)

Ruben Neves to register at least one shot in Tuesday morning’s Club World Cup Round of 16 match between Al Hilal and Manchester City is significantly overpriced at 1.53 with bet365, a sharp contrast to odds as low as 1.11 offered by Paddy Power.

This odds gap reflects a dramatic difference in implied probability, with Paddy Power pricing the selection at a 90% likelihood, which, when aligned with Neves’ output, makes bet365’s odds extremely generous.

Despite occupying a predominantly defensive midfield role, Neves has consistently contributed offensively, particularly in the shot department. His appetite for long-range efforts is well-established, and he’s demonstrated this throughout his career for both club and country:

• Averaged 1.04 shots per 90 minutes in the Saudi Pro League last season.

• Averaged 1.24 shots per 90 in the season prior.

• Has taken 4 shots in 3 matches in this tournament so far (1.33 shots per 90).

• ⁠Has registered at least one shot in each of his last 10 competitive appearances for club and country.

Though Manchester City’s suffocating possession-based style has limited opponents to just 7.33 shots per game in this competition, Neves’ profile makes him uniquely suited to break through that defensive wall, with the key lying on shot location. Neves doesn’t rely on creating high-percentage chances from close range, instead he thrives from distance. Of his four efforts in this tournament, three have come from outside the area (75%), while in the league, 22 of his 26 shots (84.6%) were struck from distance.

This dovetails perfectly with the way City defend. Half of the shots they’ve conceded in the tournament so far have also come from outside the box, showing how rare clear chances are against them. That dynamic sets the stage for a player like Neves, whose shooting zone overlaps exactly where City are susceptible to conceding. With Al Hilal likely to be restricted to high-quality chances, Neves’ willingness to shoot from range becomes even more valuable.

To reinforce this, Neves has accounted for 10% of Al Hilal’s total shot output across the tournament, a notable contribution for a deep-lying midfielder. Based on recent trends and positional context, a truer price for this selection would be closer to 1.36 and with bet365 offering 1.53, this presents clear value.