Despite Man City’s evident capacity to score lots of goals, their matches have only exceeded the three mark twice this season and Inter’s defence should offer a much sterner test.

In their last Serie A campaign, Inter conceded more than one goal on just five occasions, conceding no more than 22 overall, making them the best defence in Europe. This season, they’ve picked up exactly where they left off, conceding just three goals in their opening four games. Their only high scoring affairs tend to be thrashings of significantly weaker teams, of which Man City obviously are not.

Only four of Inter’s last 17 matches in the Champions League have produced over 3.5 goals, with Inter taking points from all of them. One of these was of course the 22/23 UCL Final which finished 1-0 to Man City even with the English side creating less than one expected goal.

Thuram has gotten off to a very fast start this season, scoring four goals and notably drawing five fouls, contributing to a 1.41 per 90 average.

This is pretty consistent with what we might expect from the French forward who averaged 1.5 fouls drawn per game last season including at least one in 80% of his games (60+ mins).

Although Man City are generally not a particularly high-fouling team, it’s noticeable that Brentford’s two centre-forwards, Wissa and Mbeumo were both brought down twice in City’s last game as was West Ham’s striker Antonio, once, the week before. Two of the three average significantly fewer fouls drawn per 90 than Thuram implying there’s definitely an angle to be had here.

Darmian’s reputation in Italy as a solid defender is well-merited with the Italian known to excel at reading the game, but that can lead to frequent tactical fouls designed to thwart the opposition.

He’s going to have a lot of defending to do on Wednesday, particularly given he’ll likely come up against Jack Grealish who’s an absolute nightmare for opposition defenders, having averaged 3.68 fouls drawn per 90 last season.

Darmian himself has sinned seven times this season, averaging a foul every 40 minutes. They’ve been evenly split, committing two fouls on three occasions and one in the remainder.

It’s a surprise De Bruyne has been priced this generously given his longevity and form in the market over the last few seasons. So far this year he’s averaging 3.53 shots per 90, firing off at least two in each of his four games.

Over the international break he started both matches for Belgium, taking five shots against Israel and four against France.

Perhaps even more significantly for the Belgian, he’s played almost every minute of the season for Man City and looks as fit as ever.

Barella has fired off at least one shot in each of his three games so far, averaging 1.49 per 90 over the period, up from the 1.26 he recorded last season.. He’s looked lively to say the least and it looks like Simone Inzaghi has worked out how to get the best out of him after arguably failing to do so last season.

It’s become evident that in order to make the most out of the extraordinary talent that is Barella, Dumfries simply can’t play behind him as the Dutchman doesn’t offer the same defensive solidity that Darmian does. In the past, when the two have played together Barella has been burdened with too much defensive responsibility rendering him unable to have the same creative effect he otherwise does. Inzaghi seems to have given in to this reality which will hugely benefit Barella and the probability of him taking a shot or two.

Barella was rested against AC Monza last time out so should be fresh and ready to make an impact on Wednesday.

In a predictably strong start to the season for Haaland, the Norwegian has already racked up nine goals from fourteen shots on target, an average of over 3.5 per game. Although it’s a relatively small sample size, we can also look back to last season where he averaged 2.08 or the season before, 1.95.

In the 778 minutes of Champions League football Haaland played last season, he averaged 2.54 shots on target per 90, reaching the two benchmark in all five of his group stage matches.

In spite of Inter’s typically tight defence, they’ve still allowed the opposition an average of 4.25 shots on target in Serie A this season. That’s not to say they haven’t been good defensively because they have; the average xG of each shot on goal conceded has been very low, hence the decision to back Haaland for two shots on target rather than one goal.

Perhaps Inter Milan’s surprise package this year, Marcus Thuram has been on fire for the Nerazzurri, bagging four goals and seven shots on target, the second most in Serie A. His season average of 1.97 per 90 makes him fantastic value here despite the tougher opposition.

Previous to joining Inter, Thuram averaged 1.57 shots on target per game in his last season for Borussia Monchengladbach. That figure then took an initial dive as he had to play second fiddle to Lautaro Martinez but he’s now a well-respected equal with the Argentine, arguably holding up the play for him more often than the other way round.

City conceded five shots on goal last time out to Brentford with Chelsea and West Ham managing two a piece a bit further back. The chances may not come thick and fast for the Frenchman but he should get one or two and if his form this season is anything to off, we can expect him to take them without hesitation.

Although it’s been a slower start in front of goal compared to what many expected of Martinez ahead of this season, he’s still been a thorn in the side of opposition defenders. This season he’s particularly excelled in the fouls drawn department, averaging 3.2 per 90 and winning at least two free-kicks in all four of his matches.

As mentioned this partly comes as a consequence of Martinez playing a more important role in the buildup, operating with his back to the goal rather than playing as a poacher or something similar. Nonetheless he still averaged 1.99 fouls won in his last Serie A campaign and 2.20 the season before that.