With 32 goals to their name after just 14 Premier League matches this campaign, no side has been as efficient as Man City in the final third, and they are well on track to better their tally of 78 goals scored last season. We’re not even at Christmas yet, but Erling Haaland already has 15 league goals under his belt, so has been central to City’s success going forward. After getting on the scoresheet against Fulham midweek while also providing two assists, the Norwegian will hope to extend his excellent form against Sunderland.

But the Citizens haven’t been particularly convincing at the back, and have shipped ten goals in their last four games alone. Sunderland have been competitive against the big sides this season - they scored against Liverpool at Anfield midweek, while also putting two past Arsenal who boast the best defensive record in the division this term.

Following their promotion from the Championship last season, Sunderland have been more than competitive in the top flight this term, and deserve immense credit. They put up a real fight against Liverpool last time out, and could’ve taken more than just a point from Anfield. Wilson Isidor had a fantastic chance late on, only to be denied by a clearance off the line by Federico Chiesa.

If Isidor had converted, the assist would have gone to goalkeeper Robin Roefs - the Dutchman was a standout performer and contributed heavily in that match. He racked up four saves at Anfield, meaning this selection has landed in each of the last six away days for Sunderland.

Roefs ranks second out of all Premier League goalkeepers for total saves this season - his save percentage of 78% is a league-high, and he can once again expect plenty of work to get through at the Etihad on Saturday afternoon.

City have not quite been at their best this season, and have failed to exert the same control on matches as they previously did - the absence of Rodri has been a key reason for that. As a result, City have seen an uptick in fouls this campaign, averaging 9.64 fouls per game in the Premier League.

They have racked up some notable fouls counts this season already, including 16 infringements against Aston Villa, 14 against Liverpool, and 17 fouls against Leeds last weekend. While City only managed seven fouls against Fulham midweek, Sasa Lukic was fouled twice in midfield before being replaced at half-time, while Sander Berge was also fouled once.

Granit Xhaka has been a key figure for Regis Le Bris in the middle of the park this season, and has landed this selection in 10 of his 14 starts this term, including against both Liverpool and Arsenal.

The bookmakers price Man City at 1.05 to score in this game, which translates to a 95% chance of the Citizens finding the net. Initially this seems a bit harsh on a Sunderland side who have conceded the third fewest goals in the Premier League this season, but it is easier to understand when you realise Pep Guardiola’s side have scored 15 goals in their last five games.

Phil Foden is the man in form, staking his claim for a key role in Thomas Tuchel’s England squad, having scored a brace in his last two outings. He looks back to somewhere near his best levels, hit during the 2023/24 season. His tally of six league goal contributions is only three shy of the total he managed in a poor season last term. He has landed this bet in five of his eight starts at home this term.