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Liverpool v Man United Bet Builder Tips, 16/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Liverpool v Man United Bet Builder Tips, 16/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 17 October, 20256 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

In this article...

Manchester United travel to Anfield with Ruben Amorim looking for his first away win of the season, and United searching for their first victory at Anfield in the Premier League since 2016.

The meeting between the sides at Anfield ended in a 2-2 draw last season in one of Amorim’s early games in charge of the Red Devils. Liverpool did run out 3-0 winners when the sides clashed at Old Trafford. 

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Liverpool v Man United Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Liverpool v Man United
  • Premier League
  • 16:30
4 Selections @ 3.46

Matheus Cunha to have 1+ Shots on Target

Cunha is a player that I think perfectly suits Manchester United. To be a United player, you need more than just talent. A bit of arrogance and resilience is necessary to deal with the baggage that the size of the club brings, and Cunha has that confidence in abundance.

His drive is reflected in his shot numbers so far this season. He’s had 15 shots across his four starts in the Premier League (3.84 per 90) with seven of those efforts finding the target (1.79 per 90). 

His shot numbers stay pretty consistent when looking at his metrics for Wolves last season, where he averaged 3.81 shots per 90 and 1.52 shots on target per 90 across his 33 appearances.

Cunha had six shots when Wolves visited Anfield last season and scored from his only shot on target. He could be really valuable to United’s chances of getting a first win in the Premier League at Anfield since 2016. 

Liverpool are far from secure at the back at the moment, and United will feel as though they can exploit a backline which isn’t quite gelling right now with Cunha as a main contributor.

Mohamed Salah to have 1+ Shots on Target

Salah hasn’t quite yet hit the heights of last season, which was one of his best ever campaigns in the Premier League, but he’s always worth backing when Liverpool face Manchester United.

Salah has recorded six goals and six assists across his 17 appearances against Manchester United for Liverpool, so he’s been a consistent thorn in their side since he arrived for a second spell in the Premier League. 

Salah has registered four goal contributions this season, despite his drop-off in performances. This shows that Salah doesn’t need to be at his best to be effective - one of his key traits which has kept his numbers so consistent across his time in the English top-flight. He’s also on penalties for Liverpool, which can offer the Egyptian another route to the target here. 

Salah has had 12 shots so far in the Premier League this season (1.72 per 90) with five of those attempts finding the target (0.72 per 90).

Over 2.5 Goals

Liverpool really needed the international break with Arne Slot’s side losing their last three matches against Crystal Palace, Galatasaray and Chelsea. All three of those games were away from home, so they’ll welcome the return to Anfield here, but those recent defeats were always coming when looking over Liverpool’s poor defensive record, which informs our selection here.

Liverpool have only kept two clean sheets across their 10 matches in all competitions this season. These shutouts came in games against Burnley and Arsenal, with seven of those games seeing over 2.5 goals. Liverpool are capable of scoring at least two goals in every game they play with the attacking quality they possess, and Arne Slot may have to turn to a very forward-thinking approach to counteract the issues that Liverpool face at the back.

Manchester United’s seven Premier League matches so far this season have produced 20 goals (2.85 per game). Ruben Amorim’s side sit top of the xG table with 14.1 expected goals generated across those matches, but only nine have ended up in the back of the net. This is as good a chance as United have had in recent seasons to win at Anfield with Liverpool’s defensive issues, so I’d expect them to try and be expansive and take the game to Liverpool.

Man United Goalkeeper to Make 3+ Saves

Senne Lammens finally made his debut for Manchester United against Sunderland before the international break and really impressed, making three saves in the game, keeping a clean sheet having faced 0.94 xGOT (expected goals on target).

I didn’t quite understand why Amorim was keeping him out of the side with it being clear that he’s more commanding than both Andre Onana and Altay Bayindir. It also appears as though he has the trust of the United backline, which cannot be said for the other keepers, if you go back and watch the reaction of United’s defenders after Lammens’ key actions against Sunderland, it’s clear to see that he instils more confidence in them.

Lammens was forced into making 174 saves in the Belgian Pro League last season (4.24 per 90) with a save percentage of 77%. Liverpool will be eager to test Lammens with their wealth of attacking talent, and I can see the young keeper being an important part of any success that United have here. Onana was forced into making four saves in this fixture last season.

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Liverpool v Man United Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Liverpool v Man United
  • Premier League
  • 16:30
3 Selections @ 17.37

Bruno Fernandes to be Shown a Card

Bruno Fernandes was booked in both of Portugal’s qualifying matches over the international break to add to the two yellow cards he’s received in the Premier League this term, those cautions came against Burnley and Brentford.

Fernandes regularly wears his heart on his sleeve and is often very passionate in big games. This passion does often spill over into recklessness, but that didn’t actually result in Fernandes getting many yellow cards last season, with just three for the Portugal international, as well as two red cards.

Fernandes is pretty much guaranteed to eclipse his yellow card tally from last season, having already collected two cautions this term. He’s averaging 0.86 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season, which is another metric that could rise here with Fernandes playing in a deeper role for Ruben Amorim to account for the additions of Bryan Mbeumo and Cunha in forward areas.

Over 2.5 Liverpool Cards

Manchester United are priced at 1.67 to pick up 3+ cards here but I actually think that Liverpool could be the ones to get frustrated with how their season has unfolded so far. Liverpool have collected 15 yellow cards across their seven Premier League matches this term (2.14 per game) which is the 7th-highest total in the top-flight.

It’s easy to see how this average increases here, with this being one of the fiercest derbies in English football. Liverpool picked up two yellow cards in this fixture last season, and Manchester United have quite a few players who can draw fouls and cards to tally up to our card total here. Cunha and Patrick Dorgu, in particular, are very strong when it comes to winning fouls and will aid United in drawing a few cards from Liverpool here.

Manchester United have drawn 4+ cards from their opponents in four of their seven Premier League matches so far this season with two of those games seeing the opposition receive five cautions.

Benjamin Sesko to Score Anytime

I was really excited to see how Benjamin Sesko adapted to the Premier League and having watched him closely across his first few appearances, I’m even more certain that he will blossom into a real success in English football.

Sesko scored in back-to-back Premier League matches before the international break against Brentford and Sunderland. The opposition isn’t as important as the fact that Sesko has some early goals under his belt, which will do wonders for his confidence - many will remember Rasmus Hojlund’s long wait for a goal in a United shirt, and he never really recovered from that period.

As well as having some confidence, Sesko also possesses the perfect physical profile for the Premier League. I don’t anticipate him being bullied by either Ibrahima Konate or Virgil van Dij,k and I think the Liverpool centre backs will be really troubled by the threat of the two number 10s, allowing Sesko space to have a few chances.

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📂 Liverpool v Man United Cheat Sheet

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📈 Liverpool v Man United & Tactics

Liverpool had a disastrous week before the international break, losing all three of their matches against Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Galatasaray. All three of those matches were away from home, so Arne Slot’s side will really welcome a return to Anfield here, where they’ve only lost once, in the Premier League, in the last calendar year. 

Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets across their 10 matches in all competitions so far this term. This lack of defensive solidity was always going to catch up to them after a series of miraculous late winners early on in the campaign, which very much covered the cracks. The worry for Slot is that this has been an issue for Liverpool all year, really, not just the last few months. The majority of Liverpool’s good performances came in the first half of last season. 

I also think people haven’t accounted for the level of change at Liverpool. Not only did they sign a few superstars that have instant pressure to deliver, they lost the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz in one window, who all pitched in to guide Liverpool to the title last season. This has also come after a summer where Liverpool signed no one, so the changes are quite drastic to expect instant success.

Manchester United have failed to win an away game so far this season, having faced Fulham, Grimsby, Manchester City and Brentford. The only one you can forgive from this run is their 3-0 defeat against their City rivals, but this is a worrying pattern developing for Ruben Amori,m which once again casts doubt over the character of this United side. They struggle in big occasions and can hide if things aren’t going their way, as their 3-1 defeat against Brentford in their most recent away match showed.

There has been a lot made of Manchester United being top of the xGF table after seven matches of the season (14.1). I wouldn’t read too much into this. United underperformed their xG anyway, to only score nine goals and have played two of the three promoted sides at home this season, which accounts for 5.47 of that figure. 


📔 Liverpool v Man United Formation & Team News

The root cause of Liverpool’s issues in my opinion is the Reds missing the effective duo of Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold. The latter's absence from the squad is more consequential, with Robertson’s level dropping slightly from his prime years. It’s not just his quality on the ball that Liverpool miss, but also his relationship with Mohamed Salah and his clever defensive positioning when he pushed high up the pitch.

Alexander-Arnold has never been an excellent 1v1 defender, but he was great at ensuring that Liverpool could hold an effective rest defence just by being in the right areas. Jeremie Frimpong/Conor Bradley are a completely different profile of full back, and this will take some time to gel, especially with Salah really missing the service of the Englishman. Milos Kerkez on the opposite side has also had some difficult moments, which have arisen due to him pushing too high up the pitch - this puts Konate and van Dijk in really difficult situations. 

Liverpool’s midfield is also missing a bit of steel. Florian Wirtz is still adapting to the intensity and physical demands of the Premier League, and that has unsettled the entire unit. Ryan Gravenberch is a doubt for this game, and that would be a key absence for Liverpool. He’s not Liverpool’s best player, but I’d argue he’s the most important. Speaking of important players, Alisson is also expected to miss out here, which is a massive blow as he’s the best keeper in the league in my view.

Manchester United line up in an identifiable 3-4-3. My main frustration with this system is that it never changes, Amorim refuses to adapt or accommodate players like Kobbie Mainoo with fixed roles for every player on the pitch. This also harms players like Fernandes in my view, who is capable of playing deep, but is much better in the final third. 

The positives from this system are minimal, but the attacking setup does look a little more dangerous than it did for United last season. Though I’d argue that this is due to the calibre of player that United brought in over the summer rather than the benefit of the tactical system that Amorim is so insistent on.


📊 Liverpool v Man United Key Stats

  • Manchester United have not won at Anfield in the Premier League since 2016.

  • Liverpool have only kept two clean sheets across their 10 matches in all competitions this term.

  • Manchester United are yet to win an away match in any competition this season.

  • Liverpool have lost their last three matches against Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Galatasaray. 


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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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