Manchester City are clear favourites to win this match and I expect them to go through with it here. Manchester City were dominant in the first half away at Leipzig and this level of performance at home should see them comfortably win. Manchester City are extremely good at home, they have only lost once at home in all competitions and only failed to win at home on one other occasion. Leipzig also seem to struggle away from home against the top teams, this season they have away losses to Dortmund, Monchengladbach, Real Madrid and Union Berlin. Without Nkunku in the side, Leipzig will likely be lacking the firepower to keep the game and Manchester City are playing well enough right now to win comfortably here.

Jack Grealish has become a must start in Pep’s new system which sees him get a lot more of the ball. Grealish is the 2nd most fouled player in the Premier League this season and draws 3.55 fouls per 90. Grealish is a nightmare for opposition full backs and in the new system he often gets the ball 1 on 1 with them. In his last 5 matches, the opposition right back has conceded at least 2 fouls in 3 of the matches, including in the first leg of this tie. Benjamin Henrichs was subbed on at half time in the last leg and he committed 2 fouls and got himself a booking all in one half. He should be picked to start in this match and with Leipzig having to sit back here, he should see plenty of opportunities to commit fouls.

Manchester City are one of the hardest teams in Europe to play against, especially away from home and they will dominate the ball here. Teams really struggle to win corners against Manchester City, they concede just 2.41 corners per match, the lowest in the Premier League by far. Leipzig are not big corner winners themselves, they win 4.63 corners per 90 on average, only the 8th highest in the Bundesliga.

Bayern Munich are the most comparable team to Manchester City in the Bundesliga and Leipzig won just 3 corners at home against them earlier in the season. In the first leg, Manchester City limited Leipzig to just 2 corners although they did score from one of them. As they only had 2 corners at home, away from home in this second leg, Leipzig will likely struggle to get a high corner count and I would be very surprised if they had more than 4 corners in this match.

While Phil Foden has played well recently, Riyad Mahrez could be recalled to the starting eleven for this match. The Algerian scored in the first leg and was one of Manchester City’s most dangerous players. Mahrez had 3 shots in the first leg with 1 on target, however he could have had even more on target. When Mahrez plays he is almost always influential, he has averaged 0.76 shots on target per 90 this season. Leipzig give out a lot of shots to opposition right wingers and Mahrez has the quality to get at least 1 on target in this match.