Grorud v Brann
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Monday 27th June – 5:00PM KO
Struggling Grorud welcome Brann and this match is expected to result in a comfortable away win. Grorud are the only team in the OBOS Ligaen yet to win a game this season, although they have drawn 6 out of 10 times. They are situated third bottom and blew a 2-0 lead vs Kongsvinger last week, eventually succumbing to an 86th minute equaliser. Four of their six draws have ended exactly 2-2 and their main problem is conceding goals at an average of exactly two goals per game. Grorud have the worst average xGA of any team in the league per 90 mins (1.80) and this does not bode well when facing the strength of this current Brann side. Grorud are only a semi-professional club and expectations were not high this season. They do lack overall quality and have very few recognisable players. Former IK Start youngster Sindre Osestad leads their scoring charts this year and has been one of the brighter lights in the team.
Brann have been like a machine this season and have a four-point cushion at the top of the OBOS-Ligaen, now winning 6 consecutive games. They are the only remaining unbeaten team and if they keep their focus, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if they went a whole campaign without losing an OBOS match. They have by far the biggest budget out of any club at this level and were the pre-season red hot favourites for promotion. Brann have scored a massive 32 goals in 10 league games. They have by far the best xG per 90 mins out of any team in the league (2.22) and they also have the best xGA (0.67). Stabaek have conceded fewer goals, but Brann pretty much lead every other meaningful statistic they are so strong. For regular followers, it was frustrating that Brann only beat Stjørdals-Blink 2-1 away last week and they failed to land the over 2.5 team total bet. It is not often that Brann have failed to net at least three times this season though and I am happy to go down the same avenue one again here.
This should end up as a straightforward away win, but you won’t get rich backing Brann at odds of just 1.15. The Brann -1 handicap is a better-priced 1.62 but I prefer taking the team total over 2.5 again at 1.80. The only benefit of taking the handicap selection is that it covers a 0-2 scoreline, which is possible, but Brann are more likely to run riot in my opinion. They have way too much firepower in their armoury with the likes of Brad Finne, Niklas Castro, and Mathias Rasmussen all in great form. Grorud are not a very good team and are especially poor defensively. I think this is the best value betting option on this match with Brann netting at least three times themselves.
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Prediction: Brann to Score Over 2.5 Goals, 1.80 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Åsane vs Sandnes
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Monday 27th June – 5:00PM KO
There is no doubt that in terms of raw statistical metrics Åsane are one of the worst teams in the OBOS-Ligaen. They have an overall xG per 90 mins of just 0.86 which is the lowest of any team in the division. This is especially low for such a high-scoring league and is quite worrying. Things are not much better at the other end of the field where their xGA of 1.78 per match is the 2nd worst. Åsane are in 11th place and three points clear of the drop zone and have done well to obtain 9 points considering their xG metrics, but whether they can sustain this is questionable. Last week they lost 1-2 at home to Ranheim and a similar tough test awaits them against fully professional club Sandnes. Åsane have lost 3 out of 5 home games and the only points they’ve picked up at their own stadium have been against struggling Grorud & Stjørdals-Blink. New goalkeeper for this season Idar Lysgard again struggled last week and they need more from him.
Sandnes are 5th in the table which is acceptable for their fans. Expectations this season are for a playoff finish, considering they are a fully professional club. Sandnes have a good away record, winning 4 of their 5 road fixtures with the only defeat at Brann which is totally understandable. They head into this match after coming from 0-2 down to draw 2-2 with KFUM Oslo last week. Key striker Martin Ramsland returned to form providing a goal and an assist. He leads their scoring charts with five goals in six games and it is no coincidence that their poor run this year was when he got injured. Sandnes only have average xG metrics, 1.41 per 90 mins. Their defence is better though with 1.42 xGA per game. They have also had quite a tough fixture list, facing all of the other current top seven apart from Mjøndalen.
I think Sandnes will be too strong for Åsane and it is a surprise that their odds are so high at 2.20 to win. I am a firm believer that Åsane are one of the most overrated teams in the division and they are as bad, if not worse than sides such as Grorud and Skeid. There should be too much of a gulf in class here and Sandnes have such a strong away record which gives me even more confidence on the visitors. The safest and best bet is probably on the draw no bet handicap though, just in case this fixture was to end all square. I am expecting Sandnes to win to nil and their decent defence to hold up well against a toothless Åsane attack force.
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Prediction: Sandnes Draw no Bet, 1.67 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Bryne v Stjørdals-Blink
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Monday 27th June – 5:00PM KO
Due to a quirk of the fixture schedule, Bryne have not played a league match since 29th May which was nearly a month ago. They did play a game in the Norwegian Cup midweek which they won 3-1 away to lower league side Vidar. Bryne had a shocking start to the season losing all of their first 6 league games but are now unbeaten in four straight fixtures. An impressive 0-0 draw vs Stabaek and a surprise 2-0 win vs Start moved them up to 12th place and the international break probably came at the wrong time for Kevin Knappen’s men. Bryne are ranked 9th best in the league for xG with a very respectable 1.42 per 90 mins. Their xGA of 1.49 per match is mid-range. Bryne, who are a fully professional club are perhaps best known in recent times for being the first club of world superstar Erling Braut Haaland. The team from Rogaland are known for producing or developing young talent. Attacking midfielder, 19 year old Sigurd Gronli is especially a decent prospect worth keeping an eye out for.
Struggling Stjørdals-Blink travel here on the back of a 1-2 home defeat vs Brann. They shocked everyone by taking the lead in that match and were eventually undone by a late goal. They put up a decent fight facing the league leaders and their performance should inspire some confidence, despite suffering defeat. Stjørdals-Blink have lost 7 out of 10 OBOS Ligaen matches, and their main problem has been conceding a whopping 20 goals, failing to keep any clean sheets in the process. Blinks, who are a semi pro outfit from Trondheim were expected to struggle this season and are one of the big favourites for relegation. It was a huge blow that they lost highly rated and talented young English manager Tom Dent to Ham Kam this winter. The positive for Stjørdals-Blink ahead of this match is that all of their five points have been obtained on the road this season and they seem to travel better.
This is a battle between 12th and 15th in the table so both teams should fancy their chances of winning. I always love betting on goals or both teams to score in fixtures like these, because logically it should be an end to end type game containing several chances. Bryne have kept consecutive clean sheets in the league but used a much more defensive strategy vs Stabaek and Start. I doubt they will do that facing much weaker opposition in a match they need to target victory. I think the best bet here is for both teams to score. Stjørdals-Blink have scored in all but one fixture and have kept no clean sheets. Bryne have scored at least one goal in 8 out of 10 OBOS matches, and I still don’t trust their defence. Both teams will be giving it everything to try and win. Over 2.5 goals also have a strong chance of landing but both teams to score covers the 1-1 draw, so I prefer this option.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.57 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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