💎 Gem Bet: Moises Caicedo - Over 0.5 Shots @ 1.83 (Bet365)

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We backed this selection at 1.80 over the weekend and it came in with ease as Caicedo had an attempt in the 17th minute against Crystal Palace from outside of the box. He’s even more generously priced for a shot in this must win clash for Chelsea, and his record is just as appealing in the Champions League this term.

Caicedo has pitched in with two goals across his six starts in the Champions League this season - only Estevao (3) has scored more for the Blues in the competition. He’s achieved this goal tally from eight shots in the competition, working out to an average of 1.24 shots per 90.

It’s clear that Caicedo is getting more involved in the final third for Chelsea this season, also scoring three goals in the Premier League this term taking his overall tally to five goals which is already more than he managed across the entirety of last season (2).

Caicedo had four shots and scored in Chelsea’s most recent Champions League assignment against Pafos and I think it could take some time for Chelsea to find a way past Napoli here. It says a lot about the current attacking options at Chelsea that Caicedo is their second top scorer in the Champions League, suggesting that Napoli’s defensive structure may prove problematic for the Blues to break down.

This is where Caicedo can pitch in with shots from distance, and also from set pieces - which is where his goal against Pafos last week came from. Caicedo has had a further 15 shots across his 17 appearances in the Premier League this term (0.90 per 90) - he’s already within five shots of the total shot tally he managed in the Premier League last term, further supporting the suggestion that he’s more involved in the final third for the Blues this season. 

There is decent value with this selection when backing with Bet365, the exact same angle is priced as low as 1.4 with other major bookmakers.