💎 Gem Bet: Jakub Kaminski 1+ Fouls Committed v Netherlands @ 1.72 (bet365)

✅ bet365 - 1.72
SkyBet - 1.25
Paddy Power - 1.25

There is real value with this selection when backing with bet365, the exact same market is priced at 1.25 with SkyBet and Paddy Power.

Backing this with bet365 gives you the added insurance of the bet being void if the player doesn't start too.

While the international break can often feel like a barren landscape for punters and football fans, there’s still value to be found,  particularly in Thursday night’s World Cup qualifier between the Netherlands and Poland in Group G.

Jakub Kamiński, Poland’s young left winger, is priced at 1.73 with bet365 to commit a foul, far longer than SkyBet’s 1.25. That disparity alone suggests a market miscalculation, but once you layer in his discipline record and the opponents he’s set to face, the value becomes clear.

Since making his debut at 19, Kamiński has averaged 1.2 fouls per 90 across 22 international appearances. He’s an eager, combative presence who often rides the line of caution, and his direct battles on Thursday will almost certainly test that further.

Lining up against him will likely be a right-hand side brimming with pace and trickery. 

Xavi Simons (RAM/ RW): 

• Averages 1.84 fouls won per 90 across his last eight internationals

• Has drawn 5 fouls in his first 2 Leipzig games this season

• Averaged 2.29 per 90 in all competitions for Leipzig last year

Behind him, Ryan Gravenberch adds another layer of threat:

• Averaging 1.54 fouls drawn across his last 8 internationals

• Has drawn a foul in each of the Premier League games this season.

• Regularly won free-kicks for Liverpool last season (1.26 per 90 across all competitions). 

Even Denzel Dumfries, less prolific in this metric, still uses his pace and elusive overlapping runs to draw contact, averaging 0.97 fouls won per 90 for Inter last season.

Put simply, the combination of opponent profile and Kamiński’s own tendencies make this selection stand out. The odds disparity is far too large given the stats, and in a high-stakes qualifier such as this, physical duels will be constant. Backing the Polish winger to commit at least one foul feels like a very smart play.