Joelinton is expected to drop back in to centre midfield as a result of Bruno Guimaraes’ suspension. Therefore Allan Saint-Maximin is expected to come into the team and start at left wing for Newcastle and he will cause unique issues for West Ham’s defence. Allan Saint Maximin has only played about 5.5 matches worth of minutes this season but has attempted 8.89 dribbles per 90. Saint-Maximin draws 1.67 fouls per 90 and will have lots of chances to run at a West Ham defence that will likely sit back in this match. Coufal will be tasked with stopping Saint-Maximin in this match and has averaged 1.05 fouls per 90. In his last 5 matches Coufal has committed at least 1 foul 3 times, only failing to do so against more defensive teams like Everton and Leeds. Newcastle should be on top in this match and Coufal will likely have to commit at least 1 foul to stop Allan Saint-Maximin in this match.

Newcastle win the most corners per 90 of any team in the league, on average they have 7.15 corners per match. In home league matches they nearly always hit high corner numbers and against teams in the bottom half particularly they get plenty of corners. In home matches against teams in the bottom 7 they have averaged 8.43 corners per match. West Ham concede 4.85 corners per 90 and will likely sit back in this match, inviting pressure from Newcastle that will lead to more corners. In 4 away matches against top 8 opposition this season they have conceded 32 corners, an average of 8 corners per match. With the combination of Newcastle’s high corner count and West Ham allowing plenty of corners, Newcastle are good value for over 5.5 corners in this match.

West Ham allow 571.9 passes per match, the 3rd highest in the league behind only Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest. Newcastle at home will expect to hit a higher pass count than usual and this means there is value in some of their players for pass counts. Miguel Almiron has averaged 34.0 passes per match this season for Newcastle and his numbers are higher in home matches averaging a slightly higher 35.4 passes per match. Against the only teams to allow more passes than West Ham, Almiron hit over 30 passes. Against Nottingham Forest he attempted 39 and against Bournemouth it was 51. Almiron averages 83 minutes per match but due to suspensions within Newcastle’s squad he is more likely to play the full 90 in this match. If Almiron plays the full match he has a good chance of attempting at least 30 passes.

Only 2 teams matches see less goals per game than Newcastle whose matches average 2.2 goals per match. One of the 2 teams below Newcastle is West Ham whose matches average the least goals of any team in the league at an average of 2.1 goals per game. In West Ham’s 20 matches this season, only 5 times have they seen over 2.5 goals. Despite the exciting attacking football Newcastle play, only 8 of their 12 matches have seen over 2.5 goals. This is mainly due to Newcastle’s fantastic defensive record, no team has kept more clean sheets than Newcastle this season. Both teams are very strong defensively so it seems unlikely there will be a lot of goals in this match. Therefore I am backing under 2.5 goals in this match.