Sunderland’s major problem at the moment is the lack of a true centre forward. In reality, this has been a problem for over half a season, so the Black Cats have actually done remarkably well to be involved in the play-off race to this point. If Ross Stewart, in particular, had been available all year we could be talking about a side that is firmly in those top six positions.

Amad Diallo, Joe Gelhardt, Jack Clarke, Patrick Roberts, and others do still provide a threat though. The type of football that Sunderland can produce can open up defences that are more solid than Norwich’s, but if it doesn’t click for them or an opposition lines up effectively against them, then it can be tough for them to change their tactical approach.

Wagner’s home record at Norwich has recovered from a shaky start against Blackburn and Burnley to produce three consecutive solid performances and wins. They have comfortably won the xG battle in all three, winning by two goals on each occasion.

Given Sunderland’s lack of form, they have lost three in a row, including away matches at Coventry and Rotherham, the price is attractive for a Norwich win.

Over 2.5 goals has copped in four out of Sunderland’s last five matches and three from five for Norwich. With the threats from both sides on the pitch and the way that I expect Norwich to set up, a slight change from their last match with two genuine 8s in the midfield, rather than two hybrid 6s, there should be some good attacking intent from both sides and the requisite space in which to play. Therefore I like the price for over 2.5 goals here as well as a Norwich win.

Given what I believe the match will set up like, and the form that Gabriel Sara is currently showing, the price on the Brazilian to have some shots here is a very attractive one. The last two matches have seen Sara fire off three shots in each one. He also took three shots against Bristol City and five against Coventry.

More good news comes in the fact that Sara is completely trusted by Wagner. The summer signing has played 90 minutes in the last 8 matches (take away 3 minutes last time out). Sara is a backable price here for two shots. Given that he is a threat from all over the field and isn’t afraid to shoot from distance I think there could be multiple opportunities for Sara to have a go here.

Almost directly up against Sara will be the young Sunderland midfielder Dan Neil.

Neil has played a huge number of minutes for an U21 player in a very important position for any team, but even more so in the blood and thunder of the Championship. In his 2600 minutes on the pitch Neil has earned himself a reputation as a composed presence but also a frequent tackler.

He is ranked in the top 20% of central midfielders for the number of tackles that he makes per 90 minutes, so it is definitely a reliable sample. He also tops the list of the Sunderland player with the most fouls in the last 10 matches.

Given all of these facts it is a surprise that Neil is a backable price for only one foul here. I find it difficult to think that he will get through 90 minutes against technical midfielders like the aforementioned Gabriel Sara, Marcelino Nunez, and Kenny McLean, without committing a foul.