Nottingham Forest v Chelsea

The standout fixture on the final day of the season sees Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea side travel to the City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest in a straight shootout for a place in the Champions League next season. Anything other than three points for either side is unlikely to be enough to secure Champions League qualification.

The initial meeting between these sides ended in a 1-1 draw and both will feel their campaigns warrant a spot at Europe’s top table next campaign, especially Nottingham Forest who have been in and around the top five all season, only recently running into some trouble which has left them in this situation on the final day of the season.

Matz Sels has been one of Nottingham Forest’s standout players this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising if we saw the keeper bail out his side yet again this campaign on the final day of the Premier League season. Sels has kept 13 clean sheets in the Premier League this term which is the joint-most in the division so he will have an extra personal record to protect against Chelsea which aids this selection. 

Sels was forced into making seven saves in the 1-1 draw between the sides at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea having 22 shots overall. This has been a common pattern for Nottingham Forest this season, they’re only averaging 40.5% possession per game in the Premier League this campaign as well as 265.9 passes per game - Forest rank in the bottom three in the Premier League for these two metrics which gives us a pretty clear picture of how they’ll approach this game. 

Chelsea have posted some really positive attacking numbers this season, most notably when it comes to shots on target. Only Liverpool (6.2) are having more shots on target per game in the Premier League season than Chelsea (5.8), they also rank 2nd for expected goals (68.1) which indicates that they’ve been a pretty consistent attacking force this season. 

Sels is having to make 3.22 saves per game in the Premier League this campaign. We should see a slight rise in this metric when considering Chelsea’s impressive underlying attacking numbers this season as well as Forest’s tendency to soak up pressure.

👕 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Predicted XI

🔍 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Players to Watch

🔵 Cole Palmer

Chelsea need a big performance to secure a spot in the Champions League next season and there aren’t many players in the Premier League better suited to stepping up on these occasions than Cole Palmer.

He’s registered 23 goal contributions across his 36 Premier League appearances this season, and provided the assist for Noni Madueke’s goal in the 1-1 draw between these sides at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season. Palmer is on penalties for Chelsea and has found some form in recent weeks with his recent performance against Liverpool, in particular, a standout.

🔴 Morgan Gibbs-White

Morgan Gibbs-White has arguably been Nottingham Forest’s most important player this season. The headlines have rightly gone to Chris Wood for his impressive goal tally but Gibbs-White has pitched in with 15 goal contributions himself, while averaging 2.01 shots per 90 across his 33 appearances in the Premier League this campaign. He comes into this game with momentum having scored in each of his last two games against Leicester and West Ham, also providing an assist in these recent matches. Gibbs-White has had 2+ shots in each of these recent games and should be watched from efforts outside of the box in particular, 27 of his 61 shots in the top-flight this season have come from outside the area (44%).

📂 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Cheat Sheet

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🔥 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Streaks

Nottingham Forest 3+ shots on target 

Nottingham Forest opponents 1+ goals scored

Nottingham Forest opponents 10+ shots (11+ in ⅘)

Nottingham Forest opponents 4+ corners (5+ in ⅘)

Nottingham Forest 3+ cards 

Nottingham Forest 9+ fouls won (11+ in ⅘)

Nottingham Forest opponents 1+ cards (3+ in ⅘)

Chelsea 10+ shots

Chelsea 3+ shots on target 

Chelsea 3+ corners (4+ in ⅘)

Chelsea 9+ fouls won (10+ in ⅘)

Chelsea 9+ fouls committed (11+ in ⅘)

🏟️ Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Hit Rates

Gibbs-White 1+ fouls committed

Wood 1+ shots (2+ in ⅘)

Caicedo 1+ fouls committed 

Fernandez 1+ fouls won

Caicedo 1+ tackles (2+ in ⅘)

Colwill 1+ tackles (2+ in ⅘)

🏁 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Ref Watch

• Referee: Anthony Taylor

• Stats are on a per game basis and are taken from 2024/25 Premier League games (41 total)

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