Pau are mounting an unexpected promotion push in Ligue 2 and should be heavily favoured to overcome bottom side Valenciennes at home on Tuesday.

The home side are undefeated in their last six matches, winning four of these and drawing the other two. Among the fixtures they failed to win was a thrilling 4-4 draw against second-placed Angers. During this period, they have scored 13 goals, so they are not short of offensive firepower, even allowing for second-top scorer Khalil Boutaib missing this game because of suspension.

Valenciennes, meanwhile, face going into this match shorthanded. Midfielders Bruno Costa and Julien Masson are both banned, while centre-back Taylor Moore is similarly suspended. Quite how they will patch up the spine of their team is unclear, and this poses under-pressure head coach Jorge Maciel something of a headache given the lack of depth that he has to work with.

The visitors have been relying on packing numbers behind the ball to get results lately, with back-to-back scoreless draws against Quevilly and Annecy, yet these opponents are both struggling in the standings. How they fare against Pau, who are second top scorers in the league behind only Auxerre, is far more questionable, particularly given the players who will sit out.

Valenciennes, meanwhile, have little firepower of their own. They have failed to score in their last four games, and while Pau also have the worst defensive record in the league, the guests may not have the capacity to significantly hurt them.

Pau look outstanding value at 2.2 to get the win, but arguably odds of 1.6 on the hosts on a draw-no-bet basis are even better.