With eight shots across his last seven games for his country, Mattias Kait looks to be Estonia’s most likely source of attacking output against Italy. He’s managed at least one shot in seven of those games at an average of 1.26 per 90 and having landed this bet against the Italians in Bergamo last month, he looks a nice price to do so again on home soil.

Italy have looked defensively fragile in recent matches, including conceding 18 shots at home against minnows Moldova as recently as June. They have a different manager now in Gennaro Gattuso but having conceded four goals in Israel last time out, they’re clearly still there to be attacked which Kait can take advantage of.

Ryan Manning is enjoying a shooting spree for his club side Southampton where he’s taken 1.13 shots per 90 and scored twice this season. For his nation, he’s recently been deployed in a more attacking role which has seen him fire off eight shots in his last five starts, landing this bet in four of those. He takes free kicks and likes a shot from range and therefore should get plenty of chances to pull the trigger.

Despite being heavy favourites for this tie, Portugal have proven to be less solid defensively than you’d expect in recent qualification campaigns on their own patch. Iceland and Slovakia were both afforded nine efforts at goal during Euro’s qualification and with Ireland needing three points here to stay in contention, they should be looking to attack.

Albania’s trip to Serbia looks set to be a feisty affair which hopefully will lead to an open game with plenty of shots. If so, Albanian centre back Arlind Ajeti could profit having taken shots in four of his last five starts for his country. Those shots include efforts against England, Ukraine and in the reverse fixture against Serbia and so this price certainly catches the eye.

Serbia’s 5-0 defeat to England in their last game demonstrated their struggles defending set pieces as Ezri Konsa and Marc Guehi were allowed four shots between them and both found the back of the net. With the giant Milenkovic suspended after his red card in that match, the hosts will be weakened aerially and Ajeti looks the most likely beneficiary for Albania.

Georgia face the unenviable task of a trip to Spain on Saturday but sat second in the group, they’ll be keen to make an impression. Giorgi Kochorashvili has been firing off plenty of shots in his last 10 international starts with an average of 2.28 per 90 including six in his two qualifying games so far and crucially two against Spain at Euro 2024.

The Spanish are notoriously tight defensively and will dominate the ball, limiting the chances Georgia have to shoot. This is likely to mean the visitors are restricted to efforts from outside the box and given that 62% of Kochorashvili’s shots this season for club and country have come from distance, it only enhances the likelihood of him being the one to pull the trigger.