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Portugal v Croatia
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Kick Off: Thursday 5th September at 19:45
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Competition: Nations League
Portugal faced yet another quarter-final heartbreak at Euro 2024, mirroring their early exit at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. This time, a penalty shoot-out defeat to France ended their campaign prematurely. Meanwhile, Croatia also experienced disappointment, unexpectedly bowing out in the group stage of Euro 2024. A late goal from Italy in their third match sealed their fate, leaving them winless in the tournament’s ‘Group of Death.’
With UEFA expanding the Nations League to include an additional knockout round, a top-two finish in the group will now suffice for progression. Portugal and Croatia are the frontrunners, while Poland and Scotland are considered outsiders.
Portugal v Croatia Best Bets
Portugal will be determined to reclaim the title they won in 2019, especially after missing out on the finals last time by finishing second to Spain in their group. Croatia, on the other hand, will be eager to start strong as they aim to go one step further than last year when they were runners-up to Spain.
Roberto Martinez has selected a squad brimming with attacking firepower for Portugal, featuring the likes of Joao Felix, Rafael Leao, Diogo Jota, Pedro Neto, Francisco Trincao, Pedro Goncalves, Bruno Fernandes, and the ever-present Cristiano Ronaldo.
This offensive prowess has been on full display in Portugal’s last five matches against France, Slovenia, Georgia, Turkey, and the Czech Republic, where they have racked up 87 shots, averaging 17.4 attempts per game. Portugal’s impressive shot count continues to be a trend in their recent meetings with Croatia. In June’s 2-1 loss, they managed 15 attempts, while in the 2020 UEFA Nations League matches, they recorded 17 and 27 shots, averaging 19.67 shots per game.
Meanwhile, Croatia have conceded 56 shots in their last four matches, an average of 14 shots per game. Given the number of shots Portugal take combined with Croatia’s tendency to allow plenty of attempts, there’s strong value in the ‘Team Shots’ market. Portugal are priced at 1.73 to take 15 or more shots, with even better odds of 2.50 for them to reach 17 or more attempts.
One player Croatia will need to keep a close eye on is Diogo Jota, who has started the season in sensational form for Liverpool. The former Wolves forward scored the opening goal against Ipswich Town and set up Luis Diaz for a goal against Brentford. Jota has already taken eight shots in Liverpool’s first three matches, with two of those on target. For Portugal, Jota has been equally impressive, contributing 25 goals and assists in just 2,124 minutes of play – equivalent to 23.6 full 90-minute appearances. He averages 0.59 goals and 0.47 assists per 90 minutes, making him a strong candidate to contribute to a goal here.
Portugal have also been highly effective in winning corners in recent matches. They’ve reached double digits in 80% of their last five games, averaging 9.4 corners per match. This trend extends to their encounters with Croatia, where they’ve averaged 10 corners in their last three meetings. Given these stats, it’s likely that Portugal will continue to rack up corners in this clash. The odds are set at 3.80 for Portugal to take 8 or more corners against Zlatko Dalic’s side.
📂 Portugal v Croatia Cheat Sheet
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📊 Portugal Form and Stats
Portugal started Euro 2024 on a strong note, securing victories over the Czech Republic and Turkey to comfortably advance to the next round. However, a 2-0 loss to Georgia in their final group match, due in part to wholesale changes in the lineup, slightly tarnished their early momentum. In the knockout stages, they narrowly progressed past Slovenia after a tense goalless draw, with Cristiano Ronaldo missing a penalty in extra time. The hero of the match was goalkeeper Diogo Costa, who saved penalties from Josip Iličić, Jure Balkovec, and Benjamin Verbič to secure a quarter-final clash against France. Unfortunately, Portugal’s tournament ended thereafter with another goalless draw, with Joao Felix missing the decisive penalty in the shootout against France.
As Portugal look ahead, Cristiano Ronaldo has chosen to continue his international career, while his long-time team-mate Pepe decided to retire from the sport at the age of 41.
📊 Croatia Form and Stats
Their former Real Madrid and Croatian team-mate, Luka Modric, has chosen to follow in Ronaldo’s footsteps and continue representing his national team.
Croatia faced a daunting challenge at Euro 2024, being placed in the ‘Group of Death’ alongside Spain, Italy, and Albania. Despite strong preparations, including wins over Egypt, North Macedonia, and Portugal, they faced an early exit from the tournament.
Croatia’s campaign began with a disappointing 3-0 defeat to reigning champions Spain, where Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams proved particularly troublesome. Their next match ended in heartbreak, as a 95th-minute equaliser from Klaus Gjasula saw Albania secure a 2-2 draw. Croatia’s hopes were briefly reignited when Luka Modric scored against Italy, seemingly putting them on course for the next round. However, more injury-time heartbreak followed, as Mattia Zaccagni’s 98th-minute strike sent Croatia home early.
⚔️ Portugal v Croatia Head-to-Head
Roberto Martinez’s Portugal recently faced Croatia in a friendly match last June, serving as a warm-up for both teams ahead of their Euro 2024 campaigns. Croatia took an early lead through a penalty converted by Luka Modric, but Diogo Jota of Liverpool levelled the score. However, a second-half goal from Ante Budimir secured a win for the 2022 World Cup semi-finalists.
The last competitive meeting between these teams was in the 2020 UEFA Nations League, where Portugal emerged victorious in both encounters. In the first match on home soil, Portugal dominated with a 4-1 win, courtesy of goals from Joao Cancelo, Jota, Felix, and Andre Silva, racking up over 20 shots. In the away fixture, Ruben Dias scored an injury-time winner to seal a 3-2 victory.
Portugal’s attacking talent has been on full display during these high-scoring matches, taking 59 shots across the three games, averaging 19.67 attempts per match.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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