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PSG v Lille
PSG v Lille is the game of the weekend in Ligue 1, and we’ve carefully combed through all the stats to offer you some heavily researched bet builder tips. We’re still all over the rest of the football on the continent too, however, with our usual European football acca tips this weekend, alongside our European football betting tips and the expert football tips & predictions that you’ve come to expect every weekend.
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Eight points clear at the top of Ligue 1, PSG appear destined for another French title, yet if they are to slip up in the final 14 matches of the season, Lille are one of the sides who could potentially upset them.
Luis Enrique’s side are in the midst of an undefeated run dating back to their Champions League loss against AC Milan on November 7, but while they have amassed a strong run of results, doubts have been expressed over some performances.
PSG’s last home league outing against Brest ended up 2-2 after they threw away a two-goal advantage, while they threatened to be similarly profligate against Strasbourg last weekend.
Lille, meanwhile, have been a steady force. Before losing to Lyon in the Coupe de France in midweek, Paulo Fonseca’s side had lost only one game across all competitions in four months. Included in that sequence was a 1-1 home draw against PSG, when Jonathan David stole a late equaliser.
The guests will look to take advantage of the media storm surrounding Kylian Mbappe, with the striker’s form under scrutiny amid rumours that he is set to leave Parc des Princes at the end of the season.
PSG v Lille Cheat Sheet
There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets, and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.
You can find PSG v Lille match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off. If you’re looking for a new bookmaker check out the best bet builder bookmakers.
🏆 Match stats: PSG heavily favoured
For a PSG bet builder, backing a home win is a smart move, despite Lille being a difficult nut to crack this season. The odds of 1.57 are enticing given that PSG have won seven of their 10 home matches in Ligue 1 this term.
Meanwhile, backing Les Parisiens with a -1 handicap at 2.60 is an intriguing bet given that across all competitions they have won 10 matches at home this season, nine of which have been won by at least two goals.
Lille are not a side that travel particularly well. LOSC have won only two of 10 away matches in Ligue 1, and though they have drawn six times on their travels, they have lost four of their last five matches against the capital giants.
Backing goals also looks promising in this encounter, despite Lille’s away games averaging only 2 goals per match. Both teams have scored in each of the last five encounters between these clubs, while PSG have scored 19 times in those clashes.
⚽ PSG to win @ 1.57
⚽ PSG (-1 handicap) @ 2.60
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.60
🎯 Shooting stats: Mbappe the obvious choice here
Kylian Mbappe is, inevitably, the man who all eyes will be on. Not only does the forward have twice as many Ligue 1 goals as anyone else in the league, he plays virtually every minute of every game for PSG. There was something of a scare when he picked up a knock late against Brest in midweek, but Luis Enrique has assured it is a minor problem.
The PSG v Lille Cheat Sheet shows that he posts 2.13 shots on target per 90 minutes. While he does not have a team-mate who is averaging more than one shot per game. Mbappe to have more than 2 shots on target at 1.44, therefore, looks the best value on the home side.
Kang-In Lee is a player whose price could be worth monitoring, with the exciting South Korean back from international duty and potentially going straight into the squad for this encounter. Similarly, with Achraf Hakimi back from international duty, there is limited chance of Warren Zaire-Emery being asked to play right back, so the midfielder may have a greater offensive say than his price of 3.60 to get one shot on target or more suggests.
One area where the home side are perhaps not worth backing, though, is in shots on target. The PSG stats show that they are averaging little over 5 shots on target in Ligue 1 this season, with that price available at just 1.25. PSG score goals because they are highly effective with the chances they create.
With the home side giving up 4 shots on target per match, Lille at 2.20 to have 5 efforts on [target or more is a risk that may be worth taking, especially with the hosts perhaps having one eye on the Champions League.
There are a greater spread of visiting players who offer value, with the Lille stats showing that three players muster more than 1 shot on target per 90 on average. The best value among those is tricky winger Edon Zhegrova, who has the type of buccaneering spirit that could see him chance his luck from range.
Jonathan David’s price of 1.30 to get a shot on target looks a little slim but he did manage 2 efforts on target off the bench against PSG when the sides last met and is 2.30 to repeat that.
⚽ Kylian Mbappe to have 2+ shots on target @ 1.44
⚽ Warren Zaire-Emery to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.53
⚽ Lille to have 4+ shots on target @ 2.20
⚽ Edon Zhegrova to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.0
🛑 Fouls stats: Surprising options for both sides
For a PSG bet builder, Randal Kolo Muani is a surprising player to feature high on the foul count. The summer signing is averaging more than 3 fouls per game and will be up against Tiago Santos, the full-back who draws more free kicks than anyone else for Lille. Odds of 1.57 on ‘RKM’ to commit at least two fouls, therefore, look attractive.
In more of an outside bet, Lucas Hernandez is interesting in the foul count. He is likely to find himself in direct competition with Edon Zhegrova, who is a player who loves to be direct with the ball at his feet. He only averages 1.22 fouls per game but committed 3 up against Zhegrova in December. He has picked up four yellow cards, and there could be value in backing him to see a card at 3.30.
From a Lille perspective, look to the central midfielders to commit fouls. They will be forced to press a technical PSG central unit, and with both Benjamin Andre and Nabil Bentaleb featuring among their leading foulers, there is scope for both to rack up a significant count in this game. Andre made three fouls when these sides last met.
⚽ Randal Kolo Muani to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.57
⚽ Lucas Hernandez to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.88
⚽ Benjamin Andre to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.57
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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