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Real Madrid v Barcelona Bet Builder Tips, 8/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Real Madrid v Barcelona Bet Builder Tips, 8/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 9 May, 20254 min read
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Barcelona travel to the Bernabeu on Sunday afternoon to contest the first El Clásico match of the season.

It will be Xabi Alonso’s first as Real Madrid boss, and his focus will be on extending his side’s lead at the top of the table to five points if they can secure victory here - this match could have significant ramifications on the title race, and it is finely poised to be a cracker.

Meanwhile, these recommended Best Bet Builder Bookmakers highlight the value in the market.

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Real Madrid v Barcelona Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Real Madrid v Barcelona
  • La Liga
  • 15:15
4 Selections @ 3.74

Over 2.5 Goals

Barcelona had an average of 3.71 goals per game last season in the Spanish top flight, and they’ve managed to improve on that total this term. With 24 goals scored from just nine league matches, the Catalans boast the best attacking record in La Liga so far, looking sharp in the final third.

But Real Madrid aren’t too far behind, having netted 20 goals. Los Blancos have a two-point lead over their rivals coming into this clash, with eight wins from their nine games this campaign. This is a battle between first and second, not only in terms of points, but also in terms of goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in every competitive head-to-head encounter between these sides over the last two seasons - in seven straight matches in all competitions. Those games have produced an average of 4.56 goals, rising to 4.8 goals when playing at the Bernabeu.

Over 8.5 Corners

Hansi Flick had the upper hand against Real Madrid last season, as his side prevailed in all four head-to-head matchups in all competitions, but it was far from one-way traffic.

Real Madrid were able to find plenty of chances in those matches, averaging 5.5 shots on target per game, but were just less clinical than their rivals. There were a total of 52 corners across the four El Clásico matches last season, with an average of 13.0 corners per game. In fact, there were 12 corners when these sides last met, which was the lowest corner count of any of those games.

At the Bernabeu, there were 13 corners when these sides met in the league, and 14 corners in their Super Cup tussle. With both sides seeking three points from this game, there is every reason for it to be as open and expansive as it was last season, which lends itself to backing corners.

Real Madrid GK to Make 4+ Saves

Xabi Alonso has got off to an ideal start as Real Madrid manager, as his side sit top of the Spanish top flight, while also boasting a flawless record in the Champions League.

Los Blancos have been dominant under their new manager, and Thibaut Courtois is averaging just 2.17 saves per game this season. However, he has seen a notable increase in more competitive matches. In fact, this bet has landed in all three European outings this season, as the Belgian made four saves against Juventus midweek.

While Courtois made just two saves against Atletico Madrid earlier in the campaign, it is worth noting that he conceded five goals, so there were plenty of opportunities for him. It was a similar story against Barcelona last season. He landed this bet in both away matches, but made three saves in a 5-2 loss at the Bernabeu.

Marcus Rashford to have 3+ Shots

Lamine Yamal will naturally steal the headlines, but Marcus Rashford has been in exceptional form this season since arriving in Barcelona. The former Manchester United man has five goals and four assists to his name after just 12 Barcelona appearances, and is well on track to have his best season since the 2022/23 campaign, when he scored 30 goals in all competitions.

He seems to be playing with a renewed motivation and sense of confidence, which has been reflected in his shot numbers. Rashford is averaging 4.15 shots per 90 this season, and has landed this bet in five of his last six appearances, including eight in his last game against Girona.

In the absence of Ferran Torres and Robert Lewandowski, Rashford led the line midweek in the Champions League midweek - he scored a brace to help his side to a 6-1 win.

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Real Madrid v Barcelona Best Longshot Bets
  • Real Madrid v Barcelona
  • La Liga
  • 15:15
3 Selections @ 87.60

Kylian Mbappe to Score Anytime

On his first El Clásico appearance last season, Kylian Mbappe was left frustrated as Real Madrid lost 4-0 at the Bernabeu, one of their biggest losses on home turf in their history. Mbappe was caught offside eight times in that matchup, as he struggled with Barcelona’s high line.

Since then, however, the Frenchman has fared well in this matchup against the Catalans, scoring against them in both the Copa del Rey final and the Spanish Supercup. In his most recent outing against Hansi Flick’s men, Mbappe bagged a hat-trick, as his side lost 4-3 at the Olimpic Lluis Companys Stadium.

Mbappe seems to have sussed out how to get around Barcelona’s offside trap, and he comes into this clash in scintillating form. Given that Barcelona have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last six matches in all competitions, Mbappe is a player to target on Sunday afternoon.

Fermin Lopez to be Shown a Card

Fermin Lopez made his return from injury against Olympiacos midweek, making his first start since September, but he looked as sharp as ever. The 22-year-old bagged himself a hat-trick, operating in an advanced midfield position. His return has provided a massive boost for Hansi Flick, who has had to contend without the likes of Dani Olmo, Raphinha, Ferran Torres, and Lewandowski in recent weeks.

The La Masia graduate has made six appearances for Barcelona in the El Clásico, with only two of those being starts, but is averaging an eye-catching 4.86 fouls per 90 in those games. He is priced at just 2.0 to commit at least three fouls with bet365, but the value here is for him to be carded. Fermin has been booked in his last two meetings against Real Madrid, making this price of 4.0 really stand out for him to make it three games in a row.

Lamine Yamal to Score or Assist

Lamine Yamal has been battling injury this season, but was fit enough to start Barcelona’s last two games, so will be available this weekend. The 18-year-old has three goals and five assists for Barcelona this season, despite having only featured in seven matches. The winger has landed this selection in six of those fixtures, only failing in a tough matchup against the current European champions, PSG. 

Even still, Yamal accrued a total of four shots in that game, while also creating a big chance that was wasted. He was heavily involved in the final third and was unfortunate not to register a goal involvement. 

Against Real Madrid, he seems to play with an added motivation and increased vigor. Yamal was on the scoresheet in the previous El Clásico, meaning he has registered a total of three goals and two assists in his last four meetings against Los Blancos, landing this selection in all of those games. 

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📂 Real Madrid v Barcelona Cheat Sheet

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📈 Real Madrid v Barcelona Form & Tactics

Barcelona lost back-to-back games heading into the international break, but have been able to recover in recent fixtures. They beat Girona 2-1 last weekend thanks to a late goal from Ronald Araujo, before looking a lot more convincing midweek against Olympiacos.

After taking a two-goal lead in the first half courtesy of Fermin Lopez, Barcelona were pegged back from the penalty spot, before Santiago Hezze received his second yellow card and was sent off. With the man extra, Barcelona were fully able to press home their advantage, and the Catalans won that game 6-1. It was just the result Hansi Flick would have wanted coming into the El Clásico, so Barcelona should be confident.

Real Madrid also managed to secure three points in the Champions League midweek, beating Juventus 1-0 at home. The scoreline really didn’t do Los Blancos justice - they were the much better side on the night. Xabi Alonso’s men racked up 2.69 xG from 28 shots, while conceding just 0.59 xG in return. Juventus goalkeeper Michele Di Gregoria racked up a total of eight saves to prevent the scoreline getting out of hand - four of those were to deny Kylian Mbappe.

That result made it four wins on the bounce for Real Madrid, who have conceded just once in that time.


📔 Real Madrid v Barcelona Formation & Team News

Defensive issues have worsened for Xabi Alonso, as David Alaba was taken off at half-time against Getafe, before completely missing out against Juventus midweek. He joins Dean Huijsen and Antonio Rudiger in the treatment room, while Raul Asencio was also replaced midweek due to some muscular discomfort. If he is to miss this game, Aurelian Tchouameni could partner Eder Militao at the back. With Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dani Carvajal still building fitness, Fede Valverde should operate at right back again, with Alvaro Carreras on the opposite flank to deal with the tricky Lamine Yamal.

Yamal, Rashford, and Fermin Lopez are expected to start in attack for Barcelona, while Raphinha, who has been spotted in training, will hope to displace Dro Fernandez from the midweek starting eleven. Pedri and Frenkie de Jong should be ready to start in the double pivot, while an unchanged backline of Jules Kounde, Pau Cubarsi, Eric Garci,a and Alejandro Balde will have the tough task of trying to contain the Madrid attackers at the Bernabeu.


📊 Real Madrid v Barcelona Key Stats

  • Real Madrid have won 12 of their 13 matches this season in all competitions.

  • Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 11 out of 12 games for Barcelona this season in all competitions.

  • The Catalans have seen BTTS land in each of their last six.

  • Barcelona have registered 5+ Shots on Target in five of their six away matches this season.

  • They have also drawn 2+ Cards in five of their six away games.


🔮 Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, as well as European Football Predictions for this week's football, on Andy's Bet Club.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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