Fluminense v Ceara

Sixth place Fluminense take on Ceará at the world renown Maracanã stadium in Rio de Janeiro. The outcome of this game is likely to have a huge say at both ends of the table as Ceará look to pull further away from the bottom four and Fluminense seek to edge closer to league leaders Palmeiras. 

With no midweek action for Fluminense, they come into this game having had a full week to prepare. Their last outing saw them put in a terrific display, as they thrashed Corinthians 4-0. Fluminense dominated the proceedings from start to finish. They had 15 shots compared to Corinthians’ three and not just the scoreline, but the expected goal was in Flu’s favor too, with 2.37 compared to Corinthians lowly 0.27. They have outperformed their opponents on XG in their last four league matches and during this period they have won three. 

The Rio club have won their last four matches and come into this game in great form, beaming with confidence. 

Unlike Fluminense, Ceará were in action midweek, as they played host to The Strongest in the Copa Sudamericana. Goals from Richardson, Vitor Luis and Lima ensured a 3-0 win on the night and an aggregate score of 5-1 sent them into the Quarterfinals of the competition. In the Sudamericana they have won all eight of their matches, but in the league, they have become draw specialists…

Vozão have drawn eight and won two of their last ten matches. Most recently, against Internacional at home. Their XG against was at 1.11 compared to Inter’s 2.26. They will be hoping to be more of a threat in this game as they sit just a single point above the bottom four. A victory could see them move into the tenth, but a defeat may well see them in the relegation zone come the end of the match week.

Since the hiring of Fernando Diniz, Flu have played 16 games: winning ten, losing three and drawing three. In this period, they have scored 33 times and only conceded 13. With Ceará playing on Wednesday night and Flu having a week to prepare, they will be very confident about extending their winning run to five matches.

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Corinthians v Flamengo

One of Brazil’s interstate rivalries will take place this weekend, as Corinthians host Flamengo in what looks to be an interesting game. Corinthians currently sit five points ahead of Flamengo and will be eager to widen the gap with a victory here, but they know it will be far from an easy task.

Last weekend, Vitor Pereira’s Corinthians took on Fluminense away from home and with their eyes on the Copa Libertadores clash with Boca Juniors, Pereira chose to rest a few key players, which saw them suffer a 4-0 mauling. Corinthians were outfought in every department. Their XG was way below par at 0.27 compared to Fluminense 2.37, in what was a truly poor showing. Luckily for Pereira, his decision to rest his players, didn’t backfire in midweek as Timão braved the nerves in a penalty shootout triumph, to book their place in the Copa Libertadores last eight. Despite the win, Corinthians rode their luck at times and barely even threatened the Boca Juniors defence as they put out an XG of 0.03, something they will have to improve on in this game. 

After a difficult start, Flamengo have finally started to click under Dorival Junior. They have tasted victory in their last four matches and have had a perfect week. First, they enjoyed a 2-1 success over Santos away from home, thanks to a winner from Gabriel Barbosa. Then on Wednesday, they put in one of their best attacking displays since manager Jorge Jesus departed. A 7-1 demolition of Colombian outfit, Deportes Tolima. The Rubro Negro attacked with ruthlessness’ and looked like they were going to score every time they got into Tolima’s final third. Flamengo remained solid at the back, as they restricted their opponents to an XG of just 0.24. The only negative from their performance was that Goalkeeper Santos will feel he should’ve done much more to keep out Julián Quiñones’ free kick. 

With Corinthians’ chopping and changing their lineup which often leads to a dip in performance, they come into this match in the worst possible moment. Flamengo are looking frightening and with Corinthians narrowly escaping defeat in midweek, the away side will be confident of picking up three points here.

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Fortaleza v Palmeiras

After a wonderful 2021 campaign, Fortaleza are really struggling to pick up victories in 2022. After 15 matches they sit bottom of the Brasileirão on ten points, with only two league wins during this period. This week, the situation hasn’t got any better for the northeastern club. First, they travelled to Coritiba and despite having a greater XG at 1.68 compared to their opponents 1.25, they suffered a 2-1 loss, courtesy of a late winner from Hugo. This was the second time in a row that Fortaleza had endured defeat, after conceding in stoppage time. 

On Thursday evening, they took a trip to Argentina to take on Estudiantes in the Copa Libertadores. With the score at 1-1 after the first leg, Fortaleza needed to put in a monumental effort to earn a place in the quarter final. However, their tie was as good as done in the first half when the hosts took an early lead, which was followed by Yago Pikachu red card. The second half saw Estudiantes score twice more as Fortaleza’s Libertadores campaign came to an end. Manager Juan Pablo Vojvoda was pursued by Flamengo a few weeks ago and the Fortaleza board are keeping their loyalties with him, but if results don’t improve soon, that could all change. He will be desperate for his men to turn around their fortunes.

Palmeiras were looking unstoppable in the league until a shock 2-0 home loss to Athletico Paranaense, this was their first league defeat since their season opener with Ceará. The defeat was a freak result, Palmeiras racked up a whopping 4.65 expected goals compared to Athletico’s 2.38. Abel Ferreira’s men redeemed themselves in midweek however, with a wonderful 5-0 battering of Cerro Porteno in the Copa Libertadores. This featured four goals in ten minutes, including a stunning overhead kick from Rony. 

Palmeiras remain top of the Brazilian Serie A by two points and with Fortaleza struggling for form, the away side will be confident of picking up three points on the road. 

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Atletico Mineiro v São Paulo

Two giants of Brazilian football go head-to-head as Atletico Mineiro take on Sao Paulo at the Estadio Mineirão in the city of Belo Horizonte. Both sides enjoyed victories in midweek which will give the pair confidence coming into this match-up. 

The Champions, Atletico Mineiro, sit just two points behind Palmeiras, following their 2-1 over Juventude on Sunday. Although they had fewer attempts, a wonderful counter attacking display saw Galo pick up the three points. Despite having less of the possession, their XG was at 1.89 compared to Juve’s 0.98, which shows they don’t need the ball to create decent chances. This was an issue earlier in the season for Galo when they would dominate teams in possession and chances but would end up dropping points.

Then on Tuesday, Antonio Mohamed’s men completed a 1-0 victory over Emelec to send them into the Quarter finals of the Copa Libertadores. The only worry for Galo, was that they only managed one goal, despite dominating the game and should have had the contest wrapped up sooner.

São Paulo are also on a decent run of form themselves with four wins on the bounce. At the weekend, they earned a 2-1 victory over Atletico Goianiense and put in a decent display with an XG of 2.36 compared to their opponents 1.32. Then on Thursday night, Rogério Ceni’s men enjoyed a 4-1 victory over Universidad Católica in the Copa Sudamericana to send them through to the Quarter finals. 

Nevertheless, despite their current five match unbeaten run, Sao Paulo have a poor away record, with only one win in eight games. They will be without Luciano, Leo, Rodrigo Nestor, Gabriel Neves, and Diego Costa, who have bans and Ceni will likely have to change from his usual back three formation. On top of that, Gabriel Sara is edging closer to moving to English Championship club Norwich City. 

Atletico have almost a full squad available with Keno being the only missing player and with that in mind, Galo should extend their unbeaten run to eight matches. With five wins, two draws and one loss from their eight home games this season, Atletico have the best home record in the league.

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