Bodø/Glimt v Sarpsborg

Bodø/Glimt suffered a shock Eliteserien defeat away to Odd last week 2-3. They were unlucky to concede a late soft penalty but will be disappointed with how they defended overall. Goalkeeper Nikita Haikin has been better recently but was definitely at fault for the first Odd goal and maybe even has to take some blame for the second. He simply hasn’t been as sharp this season and there are question marks surrounding him. Glimt have the second-lowest average xGA per 90 mins in the league (1.04) which equates to an overall xGA of 12.48. They have vastly underachieved compared to those metrics though and conceded 17 times. In midweek, Kjetil Knutsen’s men beat Faroese champions KI Klaksvik 3-0 in the first leg and their place in the next round looks fairly assured. Striker Victor Boniface scored a hat-trick in that match, and it will be interesting to see whether he or Runar Espejord starts upfront for this game. Glimt are unbeaten at home and have the 4th best overall xG per match (1.79). With the likes of Pellegrino, Solbakken and Hugo Vetlesen the team from the Arctic Circle have plenty of attacking firepower.

Sarpsborg under the management of Stefan Billborn have been a great watch this season. He has transformed the club from a 3-4-3 formation to an attacking 4-2-3-1 system which is highly entertaining. Billborn loves to attack, and he will often do so at the cost of conceding a lot of goals. Their win last week 4-3 vs Sandefjord epitomised the sort of side Sarpsborg are now. The visitors have a big goalkeeper problem heading into this game. First choice Anders Kristiansen is ruled out until August with a broken thumb whilst backup Simen Nilsen is suspended after being sent off last week. That means that third choice Leander Oy will be taking the gloves here and he looked inexperienced and shaky last weekend after coming off the bench. Center-back Bjorn Inge Utvik is doubtful with injury as well, although Sarpsborg will be at full strength in attack. The visitors have the third worst xGA average in the league (1.78 per 90 mins) and it is obvious the main achilles heel of this team is defensively.

It is hard to see how this match is not high scoring. Sarpsborg only know one way under Billborn and he will target Glimt with a high press system and try to fight fire with fire. Sarpsborg are the highest scoring team in the Eliteserien with 28 goals and that is backed up by them having the 2nd best xG in the division. Glimt are deserving favourites and should be able to fill their boots facing a poor defence and a third choice keeper. The best bet is over 2.5. The price might be short, but this looks like as close to a banker as you can get on an over bet. For those after more value, then over 3.5 or even over 4.5 could also be considered. This is set to be a wild end to end type encounter.

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Strømsgodset v Odd

Strømsgodset have now lost 2 of their last 3 matches after suffering a 0-1 loss at Aalesund last week. It was a close and even game of football which they probably should have drawn. A controversially disallowed equaliser infuriated the coaching staff. Godset are nevertheless still in a strong position on 20 points in 4th place, doing a lot better than most people expected. It is no surprise that central to their success has been a strong home record which has seen them win four consecutive games at Marienlyst Stadion. Incredibly, they lost 0-5 vs Sandefjord here earlier in the campaign but that is now a long-forgotten memory. Strømsgodset have claimed home scalps vs Viking, Lillestrøm and Rosenborg. This can be a difficult place for any team to visit. All six Godset home matches have finished with over 2.5 goals. Their xG per match at home is 1.73 and their xGA is 1.82, the worst of any team in the league.

Odd continue their strange season of being an ‘all or nothing’ team with 6 wins, 7 defeats and no draws. They are the only team in the Eliteserien yet to draw a single match this season. They were close to getting one last week against Bodø/Glimt but were given a generous late penalty to defeat to defending champions 3-2. It was a surprise victory and Odd just took their chances well. Paco Johansen’s men have the 6th best overall xG out of any side per 90 mins (1.63) but haven’t always converted their chances this season. Their 14 goals scored in 13 games has been a bit disappointing. At the other end of the field their xGA of 1.74 per match ranks as the 4th worst. The good news for the visitors is that they have won their last three consecutive away games and have found some form on the road. Their counter-attacking style can be quite effective in away fixtures.

Odd will be without defender Odin Bjortuft who got sent off last week and is suspended here. Striker Tobias Lauritsen is doubtful with a head injury but is likely to be available. Strømsgodset have a squad in healthy condition, minus the long-term injury to midfielder Kreshnik Krasniqi. Everything is pointing towards goals here, and plenty of them. As aforementioned, every Godset home match has ended with over 2.5 goals this season and statistically the xG metrics at both ends of the field also point towards this being a high-scoring contest. Both teams should fancy the victory leading to quite an open game of football. A simple and straight over 2.5 goals at 1.53 looks like the best bet.

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Lillestrøm vs Viking

It has been a good week for Lillestrøm. They came from behind to beat Kristiansund 3-1 last Sunday and then saw their nearest rivals Molde draw twice against promoted teams. Lillestrøm are top of the Eliteserien table on 30 points and have a three-point cushion. With the season close to the halfway stage I think we have to treat LSK as a genuine title contender. They could win the gold medal this year if they keep up this sort of form. Geir Bakke’s men have won 9 out of 13 league matches and have a 100% home record winning 6 out of 6 games at Årasen Stadion. They have a 13:1 goal differential in front of their own fans and their defensive display has been mostly impressive. Lillestrøm have the 4th best xGA per 90 mins out of any team in the league (1.30) but only conceded 12 goals in 13 matches. Goalkeeper Mads Christiansen has been the standout custodian in the Eliteserien and is one of the main reasons why they have slightly overachieved their xGA metrics. Playmaker Gjermund Åsen is suspended for this match but the rest of the squad should be available.

Travelling here are a Viking side who are bang out of form and winless in six consecutive league games. They are still in 3rd place, partially because they have played at least one game more than every other side, but it is worrying how their form has dipped so badly. Their plight can be put down to a couple of main things, missing chances, and key absences to attackers Veton Berisha and Zlatko Tripic. The loss of talisman and playmaker Tripic has especially been felt. He returned last week off the bench against Rosenborg but was sent off for a horrible challenge and is now suspended for three consecutive matches as a result. Berisha has been dealing with a lingering thigh injury and is expected to miss at least the next 2-3 weeks. Without that duo Viking offer nowhere near as much of a threat. Statistically, they rank as having the best xG of any side per 90 mins (2.05) but when you are missing your two best attackers then those metrics have to be calculated appropriately.

Lillestrøm look a really big price to win this match at 2.10. If Viking were at full strength, then this would be a harder match, but this is a great time to be facing out of form visitors. Lillestrøm have been great at home this season with a 100% record and conceding just one goal. They are finding ways to win matches, even if they aren’t always at their best. In Akor Adams they have an X-factor weapon upfront who can conjure a goal out of nowhere. The crowd is also really behind Lillestrøm at the moment and could make a big difference. It is difficult to see Viking getting anything here, so the value is certainly with the home team.

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