Tottenham v Brighton

Antonio Conte’s Spurs side are flying with 6 wins from 7, having netted at least two goals in all of these games. In the early kick off on Saturday, they welcome a Brighton side who won in North London just last week.

Hired in November, Conte struggled to get his Spurs side firing but after a transfer window to bring in Kulusevski and Bentancur, he has a side of real quality who are extremely entertaining to watch. In 2022, Spurs have picked up the second most points in the league, including being the league’s top scorers this year, in no small part to the form of Kane and Son. The latter’s hat trick last week at Aston Villa took his total to 17 in the league while the England skipper himself has 12. That combined total of 29 leads three PL sides as a whole including their opponents today.

An out of form Brighton side picked up 3 points at the Emirates against all odds, recording a 2-1 win with a delightful pair of goals. Despite the result, Brighton struggled at the Emirates again conceding an xG of 2.5 compared to their 0.53, showing this result to be more of a smash and grab victory against a good Arsenal side. They also conceded 18 shots with a high percentage of these shots coming from Saka and then Pepe off the right, showing how Brighton’s 3-5-2 system affords the wingers space which I have no doubt Son and Kulusevski should capitalise on.

Spurs have the momentum going into this game and I can’t bet against them to record their 3^rd win of the season against Brighton. Averaging over 2 points a game across the whole season, I expect them to add to their tally at Brighton’s expense, burying at least 2 in the process.

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Man United v Norwich

With Erik ten Hag’s appointment as the new permanent manager just around the corner, the fading hopes for Champions League football at Old Trafford next season lay with Ralf Rangnick. The disappointing loss (0 – 1) at Goodison Park fueled the debate about whether the experienced German tactician has lost the dressing room given the underperforming squad is looking coachless on the pitch. The return to Manchester may provide a lift for the Red Devils, but the relegation-threatened Norwich are coming to the theater with a dream of moving closer to safety with another positive result. The Canaries secured a very important win (2 – 0) at Carrow Road last week defeating Burnley, but they are still seven points adrift from the places which lead to safety and remain rock-bottom.

The home side are going to be without Varane, Shaw and Cavani, while the energetic midfield duo of McTominay and Fred remains doubtful. Dean Smith can’t pick the young full-back Williams who is ineligible to play against his parent club but Gilmour, Placheta and Sargent may provide a huge boost for the Canaries.

David De Gea’s heroics this season aren’t enough alone to stop the opponents from scoring goals if the defence ahead of him is leakier than ever. The under pressure captain Maguire contributed to yet another conceded goal through deflection against Everton and with Varane plus Shaw nowhere near return, I can’t see the defence improving. The Spanish goalkeeper last noted a clean sheet in February, while Norwich are gaining confidence and the in-form Rashica is going to be a problem for the United’s full-backs who aren’t great. Ronaldo & co. may not want to play under Rangnick anymore, but their successor will be closely watching and if they want to stay at the club and play in Europe next season, they must improve. The Canaries scored a goal at Anfield last month and I can see them doing the same this time against a much weaker defence even if that means United get back on the winning track.

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Southampton v Arsenal

The Saints are becoming no strangers to losing matches with a big-goal deficit as the European champions visited St. Mary’s and provided another damning result in Hasenhüttl’s coaching resume. But, as it has been the case up until now, it is all about quick response and Southampton is going to be eager to make it up to the home fans with another London-based club coming for a visit. The Gunners are on the edge of slipping out of the favourites role for making the top 4 with back-to-back defeats and a congested fixture list to come. Arteta’s young guns are lacking experience to thrive under pressure and if they are to secure a much-needed return in the Champions League then they can’t prolong the losing streak further.

The home side won’t be able to count on McCarthy and Lyanco who are still not ready for a return, but they will welcome back Broja in the squad to provide a boost in attack, while Long remains doubtful. No changes for Arteta on the injury front from last week as Tomiyasu, Tierney and Partey are ruled out and his options remain thin for any rotation he might have on his mind. 

Southampton are a bit far from the relegation scrap, but their poor form (winless in the past five league matches) is threatening them to fall down the table rather than climb up and the squad’s focus will definitely be to avoid another defeat and help Forster keep Arsenal at bay. Arsenal are enduring a dip in form and their attack is lacking composure and creativity even though they remain comfortable in possession against their opponents. The Saints nor their fans won’t be satisfied with another defeat, while Arteta’s mission is to get back to winning ways and I don’t expect a goal fest as both sides haven’t been prolific as of late and I will be surprised if we see more than two goals in the game.

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Watford v Brentford

A battle of the promoted sides at Vicarage Road, as the Hornets welcome a Brentford side flying high in 13^th and far clear of the other two promoted teams.

A league low 2 wins in 14 this year have seen Watford slip to 19^th in the table and in serious danger of an immediate return to the Championship. Multiple managers have made it virtually impossible for the Hornets to establish a style of play with the squad failing to gel. Munoz, Ranieri and now Hodgson have all stayed faithful to the 4-3-3 system with the players at their disposal, but constant rotation has led to no player scoring double figures this term.

The Bees are flying, and 4 wins in 5 has effectively confirmed Premier League football, 14 points clear of their hosts. Wins against third place Chelsea and Europa League semi-finalists West Ham confirmed that Brentford, especially since the introduction of Christian Eriksen, are a force to be reckoned with. Thomas Frank is sticking with a 3 man midfield for creativity from Janelt and Eriksen which is a big reason for their form. With just Toney and Mbuemo providing a threat earlier in the season, Eriksen and Janelt now provide another problem for opponents to contend with, freeing up the front 2 or 3.

Brentford have been rampant recently and they will fancy their chances against a side conceding 60 premier league goals already. Cucho Hernandez’s quality will be a big miss in a must win for the home side as he picked up a hamstring injury. I like Brentford to win on Saturday, mainly due to Watford’s poor home record, winning just once since the opening day, the worst record in the league. Leeds were able to capitalise on Watford defensive fragility as they chased 3 points and I think a similar scenario is to be expected today with Brentford.

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Newcastle v Leicester

The Magpies are rubbing their hands having watched Leicester play in the Europa Conference League on Thursday while they had a week to recover and fully focus on the match on Sunday. However, Eddie Howe can be pleased with the result from last week’s win (1 – 0) against Wolves, but not with the performance as his side lacked creativity and composure in front of the goal. Newcastle are looking solid in defence, but toothless in attack as they haven’t scored a goal from open play in more than 360 minutes of league action. On the other side, the Foxes ended Crystal Palace’s unbeaten run and booked a place in the semi-final of the Europa Conference League with an impressive away win (1 – 2) at PSV Eindhoven. Leicester are on a five-match unbeaten streak in the league and Europe plus they have looked pretty dangerous over the past month collecting positive results.

The home side is still without the services of Trippier, Lewis and Wilson while Fraser has joined them on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, which is a big blow for Howe. But, Willock may have a chance to return and provide a boost in creativity behind Wood. The visitors remain without the long-term absentees Ward, Bertrand, Ndidi and Vardy, but Pérez made a winning return with an assist against PSV and could be in for a start.

With Newcastle’s reliance on Wood as the only available out-and-out striker and the lack of creativity behind him, it is difficult to see them score more than one goal and their low xG which stands at 0.98 per 90 also confirms that. Leicester is in decent form as Brendan Rodgers now has a bigger squad to choose from with Fofana, Justin, Pérez back on the pitch. Even if the Foxes decide to rotate, they still have more than enough to continue their unbeaten streak and with the confidence high after booking its first-ever European semi-final I don’t expect them to lose at St. James’ Park.

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West Ham v Burnley

Europa League semi-finalists West Ham return to the London Stadium after a successful trip to Lyon with a 3-0 victory. They face a Burnley side, in appalling form and manager less after the surprise sacking of Sean Dyche.

The Hammers fairy-tale season continues having almost been relegated two years ago. David Moyes is working wonders with a side without much investment but talent all over the pitch. Goals from £2m Dawson, homegrown Declan Rice and Jarrod Bowen saw off the French side. Operating in a 4-2-3-1, similar to Lyon, West Ham were able to pick apart the Lyon midfield with Antonio’s hold up play bullying the back line and keeping them occupied, as shown for Bowen’s goal.

This should help them in this game particularly as they should overrun this Burnley side who traditionally line-up in a 4-4-2 giving West Ham the man advantage. Dyche’s sacking could lead to a change of system depending on who they bring in, but the bizarre timing shouldn’t lead to many changes with just a handful of games left. Burnley have won 1 of 6 and scored in just 1 of 6 with a 3-2 win over Everton the outlier in a poor run of form. Failing to score against Brentford and Burnley highlights how poor Burnley are going forward.

No manager leaves an unstable Burnley side to travel to the London Stadium where West Ham have the 5^th best home record in the league. Burnley have won just once on the road all season and that shouldn’t change today with the depth in quality the Hammers have.

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