Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
There is no bigger game in League One this weekend, as second hosts first at Hillsborough. High-flying Sheffield Wednesday sit three points behind Plymouth Argyle ahead of kick-off and will still have a game in hand on them no matter Saturday’s result.
The Owls have become formidable both home and away, currently on a run of 21 matches in all competitions without a defeat inside 90 minutes. Darren Moore has had to cope with a couple of setbacks, notably a period without star midfielder Barry Bannan, as well as the departure of loan centre-back Mark McGuinness who has returned to Cardiff City. Such is the strength of Wednesday’s squad however that these absences haven’t dented their momentum.
Josh Windass has become a man possessed in the attacking midfield role of a 3-4-1-2. Giant defender Aden Flint has returned to Hillsborough on loan, this time from Stoke City, as an alternative at the back to the likes of Liam Palmer, Dominic Iorfa and Akin Famewo. The front two is often rotated between the quartet of Mallik Wilks, Lee Gregory, Callum Paterson, and Michael Smith. Left-wing-back Marvin Johnson is an underrated part of the team with his attacking influence.
League leaders Plymouth Argyle are themselves on a 10-game unbeaten run in all competitions, and last lost a league match away from home on the 16th August. A near-perfect home record, coupled with consistently strong performances away from home, leaves Steven Schumacher’s side top of the pile with 18 games left to play.
Early January business has further strengthened the Pilgrims, with a particular standout being midfielder Jay Matete. The Sunderland loanee has already demonstrated his ability as an exceptional ball carrier and adds to a central unit that has the more disciplined Jordan Houghton, as well as the attacking midfield pair of Callum Wright and Aston Villa loanee Finn Azaz.
Tyreik Wright and Bali Mumba offer a great turn of pace in wing-back roles, with all the strikers contributing across the season. Ryan Hardie is the likely starter, with all of Niall Ennis, Sam Cosgrove, and Ben Waine in contention to feature at Hillsborough.
The game of the day in the third tier is a fascinating one, as two sides on long unbeaten runs lock horns in South Yorkshire. Both Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth Argyle have climbed their way to the top by being among the division’s top scorers. No one has scored more goals in home matches than the Owls, only Ipswich Town have scored more goals on the road than Argyle. The outcome of this match will be up for debate, but there will undoubtedly be disappointment if it ends without any goals.
Bolton Wanderers v Cheltenham Town
Bolton Wanderers were outstanding in their 2-1 win at Charlton Athletic last time out in League One, creating shooting opportunities equating to 3.35 expected goals (xG) for.
A James Trafford error produced the Addicks’ equaliser in a match that the Trotters should have run away with.
Shola Shoretire was electric and is fully fit to take on Cheltenham Town, while Victor Adeboyejo also impressed on his debut from the bench.
Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, Dan N’Lundulu, Jack Iredale, MJ Williams, Randell Williams, and George Johnston are unavailable, but the Trotters’ depth will still allow them to name an intimidating side compared to that of the visitors.
The Robins kept themselves ticking over with a goalless draw at home to Port Vale last weekend, getting an unders bet up for us, but they will have their work cut out against one of the best attacking sides in the division.
Glen Rea has arrived on loan from Luton Town late on in the transfer window, and he offers a versatile defence or midfield option to Wade Elliott, but on the whole January was a month that increased the difference between these two teams.
I would not persuade anyone away from taking the Trotters (-1) on the Asian Handicap in this one.
Exeter City v Charlton Athletic
Charlton Athletic won the reverse fixture 4-2, and Exeter City are the type of side that the Addicks typically thrive against, a team that will take the game to them and leave spaces to exploit in transition.
The Addicks’ strengths lie in wide areas, with Jesurun Rak-Sakyi and Corey Blackett-Taylor a handful at all times in the third tier.
Gavin Kilkenny and Michael Hector arrived at The Valley on deadline day, while Eoghan O’Connell, Diallang Jaiyesimi, Charlie Kirk and Sam Lavelle left, the latter three on loan deals.
The Grecians have bolstered their ranks late on in the window with Kevin McDonald, Will Aimson, James Scott and Demetri Mitchell, but their most impressive business was keeping hold of Jevani Brown, Sam Nombe, Josh Key and Archie Collins.
Charlton have seen both teams score in six of seven, and in 18 of 27 in League One this season, 67%, so why a both teams to score bet is priced at 1.80 I have no idea.
Feels like the banker of this weekend’s third tier docket, considering the desire from both sides to take all three points.
Derby County v Morecambe
The Rams are the form team in League One, unbeaten in their 14 league outings, winning six of seven and the last five on the bounce.
Max Bird has been ruled out for a minimum of four weeks, but the club have acted quickly to bring in Harvey White on loan from Tottenham Hotspur to plug that gap.
Eiran Cashin, Louie Sibley and David McGoldrick have returned to fitness while James Chester remains sidelined.
Dan Crowley and Dynel Simeu are very exciting additions for Morecambe and should help with their survival bid, while they have kept hold of Cole Stockton until the end of the season.
The Shrimps beat Bristol Rovers 5-1 last time out, despite only posting 1.37 xGF, and they have more fitness issues than the hosts.
Michael Mellon is available, while Caleb Watts is a doubt and Courtney Duffus, Max Melbourne and Jake Taylor are out injured.
Derek Adams will set up the Shrimps to be hard to beat, but this is the kind of match-up that the Rams have made light work of at Pride Park in the last few months.
A (-1) Asian Handicap bet also appeals in this fixture, with the chasm in quality between the top and bottom sides very large in League One.
Portsmouth v Barnsley
Portsmouth are still being overrated by the market for me, John Mousinho has picked up six points from a possible nine in three third tier encounters since replacing Danny Cowley, but they were well beaten at Peterborough United last weekend.
Barnsley will be aiming to extend their five-point cushion inside the play-offs, with their 2-1 win at Oxford United on Wednesday evening having a sway in the odds due to a preparation disadvantage.
Jon Russell signing from Huddersfield Town on deadline day is a huge coup for the level, the Chelsea academy graduate played a key role as the Terriers chased down promotion to the Premier League in the second half of last season.
Matty Wolfe is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, but that only really impacts the Tykes’ second string.
Once again, I am tipping up a short price for this match using the double chance market, but the Tykes may offer some value in a draw no bet selection, with the knowledge your stake is returned if the game ends in a draw.
Even with a new manager in the dugout, the atmosphere could turn sour pretty quickly at Fratton Park if Barnsley start quickly, there is no argument that they are not the stronger side heading into this match.
Forest Green v Peterborough United
It has been all change at Forest Green Rovers. A busy January has ended with a new manager in the New Lawn dugout, and a much-changed group of players at his disposal. Duncan Ferguson’s debut ended with heartbreak as they conceded two stoppage time goals to lose 2-1 at Shrewsbury Town. The 18-man squad for that game included six players who were not at the club the previous month, and a further two who have since moved on to League Two clubs.
The churn of players and staff carries with it an air of uncertainty around the third tier’s bottom club. Certain signings feel notable, namely Swansea City loan defender Brandon Cooper, forward Jordan Garrick, and the high-calibre midfield pair of Charlie McCann and Manchester United loanee Charlie Savage.
Ferguson’s brief previous tenure as Everton caretaker however offers little insight into his strong a tactician he is, and how easily he will gel this group of players into one ready to attack the remainder of the season. FGR not only currently have a four point gap to make up to the rest of the pack, but have also played more games than everyone else above them.
The challenge for Duncan Ferguson’s home debut comes in the form of a play-off chaser with their own Ferguson. Darren’s fourth stint at Posh has begun with consecutive wins over Port Vale and Portsmouth, deploying a 4-2-3-1 that allows the front four of Ephron Mason-Clark, Kwame Poku, Joe Ward and Jonson Clarke-Harris to operate at their best.
Peterborough’s deadline day included the signing of National League goal machine Kabongo Tshimanga, initially on loan ahead of a permanent deal in the summer. The 25-year-old scored 69 goals in three and a half seasons in the fifth tier, even whilst being affected at times with injury. His loan-awaited EFL transfer adds a frightening striker alternative to a Peterborough side currently five points off Barnsley and the beginning of the play-off places.
An upturn in away results is needed if Peterborough are to end the season in top six, and that assault on the top places continues away at the league’s worst defensive record. Duncan Ferguson and his new-look side need to address their average of 1.9 goals conceded a game, and an average of 1.7 goals conceded at home is the worst in the entire division.
League One’s current top scorer Clarke-Harris has some close competition in the race for the golden boot. There may not be many better opportunities than this to increase his personal and team tally.
Carlisle United v Harrogate Town
Carlisle United are in fine form at the moment as they prepare to take on an inconsistent Harrogate Town this weekend.
The Cumbrians have risen into the automatic promotion places after their impressive recent run of form and thrashed local rivals Barrow 5-1 on Tuesday evening courtesy of two goals by midfielder Jon Mellish and the others from attackers Joe Garner, Omari Patrick and Kristian Dennis. Speaking after that emphatic win, boss Paul Simpson said it was a ‘brilliant’ performance from his players and it seems like nothing will stop his team’s charge up the table at the moment.
On the injury front, they are without striker Ryan Edmondson as he remains on the sidelines but they don’t miss him at all right now with the likes of Garner, Patrick, Dennis and Crystal Palace loan man John-Kymani Gordon all scoring goals. Carlisle are on a roll and have won their last four games on the spin as Stevenage and Leyton Orient above them look down in fear.
They are proving tough to beat and have lost just twice in their last 13 matches in all competitions so will be in extremely confident mood ahead of Saturday as they look to keep their run going.
Harrogate have had a poor season and will be there for the taking for Carlisle. They are sat in 21st place and are only three points the relegation zone as they risk slipping back into the National League.
The Yorkshire club were beaten 1-0 at home by Sutton United last time out and their manager Simon Weaver said his team were ‘substandard’ and he will be worried by their recent poor form. To make matters worse, defender Kyle Ferguson remains out of action due to injury and the Sulphurites could do with him at the back with options like Joe Mattock and Anthony O’Connor proving helpless to prevent their recent dismal performances.
Harrogate are winless in their last five outings and have lost 14 of their 26 games so far this season so won’t be holding out much hope of going to Brunton Park and getting a result. To make matters worse, their away form hasn’t been great and they have won just twice in their 11 clashes on the road this term which is a worry as they take on one of the best sides up next.
Salford City v Rochdale
Salford City have a great opportunity to pick up another three points this weekend against lowly local rivals Rochdale.
The Ammies bounced back from their 3-2 loss away at Crawley Town last Saturday with an impressive 1-0 home win over Walsall on Tuesday night thanks to striker Matt Smith’s early goal. Speaking after that crucial win, boss Neil Wood said he thought his players were ‘excellent’ and will want to see them make it back-to-back wins now. He remains without midfielders Jack Jenkins, who is on loan from Leeds United, and Stevie Mallan but already has the likes of Elliot Watt, Ethan Galbraith and Ryan Watson in that department which highlights the strength in depth in the squad.
Further up the pitch, the North West club delved into the January transfer market to land attackers Louie Barry and Callum Morton from Aston Villa and Fleetwood Town to bolster their options up top. Salford are 5th in the table for a reason and should have too much quality for Rochdale on Saturday. They have only lost once in their last five league games and haven’t lost in their last four at the Peninsula Stadium, winning their last three in a row there against Northampton Town, Sutton United and Walsall.
Rochdale are bottom of the Football League and could drop into non-league this term if they can’t turn their fortunes around. They have lost 18 of their 28 outings this term and seriously lack confidence.
The Dale lost 1-0 at home to Carlisle United last time out and manager Jim Bentley said afterwards that his players ‘had a go’ but they are lacking any real quality in their ranks and are in deep trouble. To make matters worse, defender Ethan Ebanks-Landell is still suspended which is a blow as he injects useful experience into the backline and 23-year-old Max Taylor doesn’t possess that.
Rochdale have the second worst defensive record in the division in this campaign behind Hartlepool United having leaked a whopping 42 goals in 28 matches. At the other end of the pitch, they have only found the net 22 times which shows they don’t have a cutting edge, with only Gillingham scoring less. Bentley’s men have also won just once in their last 11 so won’t be holding out much hope for this one as another defeat beckons.
Gillingham v Crawley Town
Gillingham will fancy their chances of beating relegation rivals Crawley Town this weekend after their impressive January transfer window.
The Gills have significantly bolstered their squad with the arrival of 11 new players, including striker Tom Nichols from Crawley, midfielder George Lapslie from Charlton Athletic and attacker Aiden O’Brien from Shrewsbury. They will be hoping their host of new recruits can help them stay up this term and they have certainly given them a boost over recent weeks.
The Gills are unbeaten in their last three league games and are just a point from safety now with two games in hand on Hartlepool United above them. They drew 3-3 away at Swindon Town last time out with midfielder Tim Dieng, defender Will Wright and new boy Nichols on the scoresheet and boss Neil Harris said he was ‘delighted’ with the result and will be pleased with the way his players are gelling together after a hectic winter.
The Kent club will be in confident mood now and prior to their draw last weekend, they won back-to-back matches 2-0 against Hartlepool at home and Colchester United away which shows they are a different team now.
Despite beating Salford City 3-2 in their last game courtesy of goals by striker Dom Telford, midfielder Teddy Jenks and defender Dion Conroy, Crawley are still conceding goals for fun and are bang in trouble near the bottom of the division. Their manager Scott Lindsay, who left Swindon Town to take over them last month, said it was ‘nervy’ before the end against the Ammies which suggests he is isn’t 100% confident in his new team’s defence at the moment.
They have let in 11 goals in their last five games which is an average of just over two per game so Gillingham’s latest attacking signings such as O’Brien and Nichols, who will want to score against his old club, will be rubbing their hands together. Crawley have no fresh injury concerns but it is worth noting that defender Joel Lynch is only one yellow card off a suspension.
Prior to their victory against Salford, they had won just once in seven and will be under no illusion how tough their trip to Priestfield will be on Saturday in what is a crucial clash in the League Two relegation battle.
Stockport County v Tranmere Rovers
Stockport County are proving to be a tough nut to crack as they take on Tranmere Rovers who are three places below them in the table.
The Hatters are three points off the play-offs and have a good chance to close that gap with a win this weekend which is a great incentive. They are a tough team to beat at Edgeley Park and will be eager to get back to winning ways after losing to AFC Wimbledon 1-0 away last Saturday before their 1-1 draw at Crewe Alexandra on Tuesday.
Striker Kyle Wootton got their goal in that one and boss Dave Challinor, who is coming up against his former club Tranmere, said afterwards that it was a ‘frustrating’ night and will want to see a reaction from his team. The North West club have right-back Macauley Southam-Hales out of action due to injury but have two great options in his position in Kyle Knoyle and Phil Bardsley which shows their strength in depth.
They delved into the transfer market on deadline day to land winger Aaron Rowe on loan from Huddersfield Town and the 22-year-old gives them competition and depth in attacking areas alongside players such as Paddy Madden and Wootton. Although their away form hasn’t been ideal recently, Stockport are strong in front of their own fans and are unbeaten in their last three on their own patch against Crewe, Northampton Town and Bradford City without even conceding a goal.
Tranmere’s away form hasn’t been the best over recent times and they are in for a tough clash. The Whites won 1-0 at home to Leyton Orient in their last game with the winner coming via an own goal by Omar Beckles late on. Despite that win, it has still been a pretty poor season by their standards and they sit 13th in the table when they were aiming for promotion.
Manager Micky Mellon said after their latest victory that his players were ‘brilliant’ but he will know that their next clash will be much harder away from Prenton Park. Tranmere have been sweating over the fitness of midfielder Brad Walker but he came off the bench against the O’s so should be fine now, with Chris Merrie and Lee O’Connor ready to step in anyway if not.
The Whites are a much better outfit on home soil and have won just once in their last seven in all competitions on their travels, so they obviously have difficulties at other grounds. That has been their downfall in this campaign, and it is showing no signs of improving.
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