Charlton Athletic v Bristol Rovers
There is enormous value in Bristol Rovers at Charlton Athletic on Saturday. The Addicks are winless in their last five in League One, are enduring something of a defensive injury crisis and have a caretaker manager in the dugout, Anthony Hayes, with very limited experience in senior football.
Charlton have kept just four clean sheets in 20 League One outings this season, have only twice at home in the league, but that does include their last one, a 1-0 defeat to Cheltenham Town. The injury list is currently: Joe Wollacott, Mandela Egbo, Eoghan O’Connell, Terell Thomas, Conor McGrandles and Miles Leaburn.
Jayden Stockley returns from suspension for this one, not necessarily a boost given his goal return this season, and the Gas are capable of finding the net on multiple occasions in South London. Joey Barton will smell blood, as will Aaron Collins, Anthony Evans and Josh Coburn, in front of small attendance at The Valley due to another unpopular ownership.
Charlton are a big club in League One, but there is no way they should be so close to evens to win the game, providing value on the visitors, but I am still going to be cautious.
Cheltenham Town v Lincoln City
Cheltenham Town unders is becoming an fruitful avenue this season, and it is hard to argue against it as a sensible angle into this weekend’s encounter between the Robins and Lincoln City.
The hosts have scored just 16 goals from 20 league games this term, the joint-lowest in the division, alongside rock bottom Morecambe, and under 2.5 goals has copped in all of their last seven matches in the third tier.
The Imps have also seen under 2.5 goals in ten of their last 11 in League One, with impressive forward Ben House a doubt for the game, though Teddy Bishop is back available. The Robins are averaging 0.78 expected goals (xG) for so far this season in the league, while Lincoln are posting just 0.81 xGF per game, this may not be a great afternoon for the neutral.
Wade Elliott is aware of how reliant Cheltenham’s survival bid is on their backline, but with the squad at his disposal he does not have much choice, and is leading a dogged and organised unit that is in a good position to maintain their third tier status.
Peterborough United v Shrewsbury Town
Peterborough United have lost their last four on the bounce in League One, and that has seen their ratings with the markets drift considerably, potentially providing some value to pounce on them stopping the rot this weekend.
Shrewsbury Town are the visitors to London Road and they will be without long term absentees Julien Da Costa, Elliott Bennett, Aiden O’Brien and Daniel Udoh. Harvey Cartwright and Oliver Norburn remain sidelined for the hosts, but Grant McCann still has the much stronger hand looking at the quality of his squad.
Posh have the second best home record in the third tier, and are still just about inside the play-off places despite the recent poor run. Performances, particularly at London Road, earlier in the season would suggest that this run will not drag on, and the Shrews could be there for the taking.
Steve Cotterill’s men are having an excellent season given the circumstances and will not lay down, but they have been running hot in front of goal recently and the trip to the Posh may be a game too far.
Barnsley v Burton Albion
Michael Duff’s side are in a good place as the New Year approaches. The gap to the automatic promotion contenders may be a fairly lengthy nine points at current, but a run of four straight league wins is doing no harm in strengthening their status as a play-off side. Barnsley’s 3-5-2 formation does not have a particularly prolific frontline, striker Devante Cole being the Tykes top scorer on five.
What it does have however is an exceptional midfield. Herbie Kane typically provides solidity in the centre, Adam Phillips operates in an advanced role in possession. Both Josh Benson and Luca Connell showcase their composure and competence on the ball, with width provided by dynamic wing-backs in Jordan Williams and the exceptional Nicky Cadden, a perfect fit for this role that allows him to dominate the left flank.
A solid, consistent backline has formed in Liam Kitching, Mads Andersen and Tom Edwards, with Brad Collins in goal. Elements of the Championship play-off outfit are still in place at the Oakwell outfit, and that high quality is on show for all in League One this season.
No team has collected fewer points on the road than Burton Albion this season, amassing a total of just six points from 10 matches away from the Pirelli Stadium. Dino Maamria’s side are without a league defeat since losing to Sheffield Wednesday at the end of October, but are also in turn without a league win, having required late equalisers to take points against Plymouth Argyle and Derby County, and conceding the final goal in games against Charlton Athletic and Milton Keynes Dons.
The return of Ipswich Town loanee Corrie Ndaba has created a dilemma for Maamria. A desire to give the 22-year-old sufficient minutes in defence more often leads to Burton deploying an unsuitable 3-5-2 as opposed to the 4-3-3 that better suits the forwards at the Brewers’ disposal. All eyes will be on Burton’s top scorer Victor Adeboyejo, who spent five years at Barnsley before joining the Staffordshire outfit in the summer. His equaliser against Derby County last weekend was his 10th goal in League One this season, having scored just nine Football League goals across his entire career prior to the summer move.
Burton Albion will provide a strong set-piece test to Barnsley, looking to utilise the throw of full-back Tom Hamer and the delivery of deep-lying midfielder Terry Taylor at every opportunity. If Barnsley can withstand the barrage however, they should make comfortable work of the relegation zone side. No one has been poorer on the road than Burton in League One, and they are without a league clean sheet since the 22nd October. Ideal conditions for the Tykes to take control of on Saturday.
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