Plymouth Argyle v Shrewsbury Town

Plymouth Argyle welcome Shrewsbury Town to Home Park on Saturday in looking for a third straight win in League One. A lot was made of Ryan Lowe’s departure to Preston North End and how it would affect Argyle’s play-off push, but they are still in touching distance of the top six under Steven Schumacher and will fancy their chances against the stuttering Shrews.

The Pilgrims made five personnel changes for their midweek trip to Crewe Alexandra, and they prevailed to a 4-1 scoreline, demonstrating the depth of quality at Schumacher’s disposal.

Steve Cotterill’s Shrews have won just one away league game, are winless in seven in all competitions and will be looking to sit back and contain Argyle. A dangerous tactic against a side who have plundered ten goals in their last three league outings.

Argyle have scored in all of their last ten in the league, and given Shrewsbury’s recent form, just getting on the scoresheet could be enough to yield a positive result. Shrewsbury lost the shot count 26-2 in their midweek 0-0 draw at Wycombe Wanderers, with the Chairboys being allowed ten shots on goal accumulating a value of 2.37 expected goals (xG), as per Wyscout.

A similar display, against an Argyle side with arguably more angles of attack than Wycombe, would likely see them well beaten.

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Cheltenham Town v Fleetwood Town

Two below par defences face off at the Jonny Rocks Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Cheltenham Town with just one clean sheet in their last 12 welcome a Fleetwood Town side who are without a win in five.

The Cod Army are just four points the Robins’ inferior heading into the game, and will be desperate to build on the three point cushion they have over the bottom three as we approach the business end of the season.

Both teams have found the net in seven of Cheltenham’s last ten and in all of Fleetwood’s last four. The Cod Army play their best stuff when fighting fire with fire, Ellis Harrison has made a good impact as an attacking focal point, arriving in January, while Paddy Lane has been one of the best creators in League One with eight assists.

Michael Duff’s men have only kept five clean sheets in the league this season, but will be full of confidence after their win over Sunderland in midweek. Games tend to be more open as we enter the final third of the season, and in Cheltenham and Fleetwood there are two sides desperate to pick up points so they can focus on next season in the third tier, rather than worrying about maintaining their status within it

Oxford United v Bolton Wanderers

Our one League One loser in midweek was both teams to score not getting up in Oxford United’s trip to Accrington Stanley. The Yellows had 13 shots and accumulated 1.96 xG but drew a blank in the end despite a very impressive recent run in front of goal.

It is rinse and repeat in a sense with this selection as another free-flowing attacking side arrives at the Kassam Stadium. Bolton Wanderers have won five of their last six and may be bolstered by returns to fitness of Elias Kachunga and George Johnston this weekend.

The Trotters did not hit their straps but were still able to earn a 2-1 win over Charlton Athletic in midweek, Dion Charles and Dapo Afolayan’s pressing from the front was too much to handle as Akin Famewo was forced into an early error.

Oxford like to build from the back and could be playing into Wanderers’ hands by doing so. Despite Charlton not doing themselves justice at The UniBol, they were still able to carve out frequent opportunities and if it was not for some last ditch blocks, the Addicks could have edged their noses in front in what was a very low margin encounter.

AFC Wimbledon v Sunderland

Sunderland have lost three on the bounce and the market has reacted to have them at an odds-against price to win outright at relegation-threatened AFC Wimbledon on Saturday.

Regardless of who is in the dugout, the Black Cats have consistently been one of the best teams in League One this season, and last term for that matter. Sunderland have won the xG battle in their last two under Mike Dodds’ caretaker leadership, 2-1 defeats to Doncaster Rovers and Cheltenham Town, and they were comfortably the better side for large periods at the Jonny Rocks Stadium in midweek.

The Dons are winless in their last 12 and are only one point above the relegation zone. In the last few weeks, Sunderland have unsustainably underperformed in defence, conceding twice from 0.4 xGA v Cheltenham and six times from 2.36 xGA against Bolton Wanderers. That kind of underperformance will not continue, which bodes well for them coming up against a Wimbledon side who are far more dangerous in attack than solid in defence.

If the Black Cats can establish control in the game as they did in midweek, they should be able to take advantage with the Dons very low on confidence and sliding down the league at a rapid rate.

Wigan Athletic v Charlton Atheltic

Scott Fraser’s introduction from the bench at Bolton Wanderers on Tuesday evening almost turned the game completely on its head for Charlton Athletic. The Addicks had lacked any kind of incision and final ball and looked destined to draw a blank at The UniBol.

The Scotsman assisted Chuks Aneke’s 76th minute equaliser and the South Londoners appeared to be the team in the ascendency before conceding a sloppy free kick late on, of which led directly to Will Aimson’s winner.

Fraser and Aneke could both start after their impressive midweek cameos at the DW Stadium on Saturday against faltering Wigan Athletic. The Latics are winless in four in all competitions as their fixture pile-up seems to finally be affecting Leam Richardson’s men’s results.

The Addicks would be in and around the play-off picture if the season started when Johnnie Jackson took the reins in late October. In that case, they are a huge price to win the game outright and will be confident of matching the automatic promotion chasers.

Despite struggling for fluidity, Charlton were unfortunate not to take something off of in-form Bolton in midweek, a team playing better than Wigan in their current guise, and will enjoy the opportunity to test themselves against one of League One’s finest this season.

More of a price play for my final selection.

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