Bolton Wanderers v Wimbledon

Bolton Wanderers’ wings were clipped a touch when they suffered a 3-1 defeat at Burton Albion on Tuesday evening in League One. Some lacklustre set piece defending saw the Brewers race into a three goal lead inside 18 minutes before Dion Charles came off the bench to chip in with a consolation goal in second half additional time.

AFC Wimbledon are winless in their last 13 games, sit just one point above the relegation zone and have drawn a blank in seven of their last 13. Mark Robinson’s men were the better team in a 1-1 draw with Sunderland last weekend with Luke McCormick sent off for a second bookable offence in the closing exchanges. McCormick has registered five goals and five assists in the third tier this season, being directly involved in 27% of the Dons’ league goals and so Robinson will need to replace the threat he poses.

Bolton have won the expected goals (xG) battle in all of their last 11 matches at The UniBol, and with Dapo Afolayan and Dion Charles rested in midweek, they will be raring to go to re-ignite their top six push. Livewire forward Xavier Amaechi made his return from injury at Burton and will provide another angle of attack for Ian Evatt.

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Ipswich Town v Burton Albion

Burton Albion travel to Portman Road as big outsiders on Saturday, despite sitting just five points behind Ipswich Town in the league table. The Tractor Boys have been regressing where we have seen a resurgence from the Brewers in recent weeks, producing some of their best attacking numbers since Jimmy-Floyd Hasselbaink took to the helm last season.

Ipswich have created chances equating to just 1.08 xGF per game over their last seven matches, that included games against Doncaster Rovers, Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon. Burton have averaged 1.95 xGF per game over the same period and with Gassan Ahadme, Joe Powell and Williams Kokolo hitting their straps in the attacking third, Hasselbaink’s men are well placed to provide stiff opposition for the big spending Tractor Boys.

Burton won the reverse fixture 2-1 and are unbeaten in three of four on the road, there is no reason for them not to be optimistic going into the match, all the pressure is on Ipswich to satisfy the home crowd, after a very below par run in front of goal, finding the net just twice in their last four games.

Burton have generated more xG over the course of the season than Ipswich and can build on their strong recent run on Saturday.

Sunderland v MK Dons

Alex Neil’s first home game in charge of Sunderland could be a tricky one to negotiate given the expectation on his and the squad’s shoulders. The Black Cats were outplayed at AFC Wimbledon at the weekend and would have lost if it was not for a majestic free kick from the boot of Alex Pritchard.

It is now just one win in seven for the Black Cats and defeat against Milton Keynes Dons would likely signal the end of their distant automatic promotion bid. Liam Manning’s men have lost just once in their last 11, keeping three clean sheets in their last five and will look to frustrate the home crowd with their possession based style of play.

Sunderland are really struggling to create high quality chances at the moment, amassing an average of 0.99 xGF per game over their last six encounters. MK are only allowing 1.05 xGA this season and therefore will be confident of blunting the hosts’ attacking contingent at the Stadium of Light.

The Dons have a better points record on their travels than at Stadium MK this season and will relish the challenge of hunting down the top two at Sunderland’s expense.

Shrewsbury Town v Morecambe

Continuing the theme of opposing the favourites in League One this weekend, considering their recent form, Shrewsbury Town look a little short in preparing to host Morecambe.

The Shrews’ form has slowed down in pulling away from the relegation picture and are now winless in their last eight. They have scored just three goals in that run and could have their work cut out against the spirited Shrimps. 

Morecambe are averaging 1.64 xGF per game over their last six matches and have won the xG battle in all of their last three. The results have not come alongside those strong performances, but they could finally swing in their favour at New Meadow. The Shrews are averaging 0.94 xGF per game over their last six games and therefore Stephen Robinson’s men will be confident of creating more high quality chances than the hosts.

Daniel Udoh has been directly involved in 43% of the Shrews league goals this term, stop him and you stop Shrewsbury. Morecambe have the greater attacking firepower in Cole Stockton and Jonah Ayunga and have the carrot of climbing out of the bottom four in victory.

Charlton Atheltic v Oxford United

Despite experiencing back-to-back defeats, Charlton Athletic have actually been playing quite well of late with individual errors seeing them fall on the wrong side of the fine margins in League One.

However, injury problems have certainly gone against them in recent weeks and they may well have to start without Conor Washington, Chuks Aneke and Jayden Stockley, their three most high profile striking options, against Oxford United at The Valley.

With Johnnie Jackson remaining insistent on deploying a front duo, the underwhelming pair of Mason Burstow and Jonathan Leko could stay in place for the visit of the Yellows, decreasing their attacking threat substantially.There is a lot of uncertainty at Charlton at the moment, with players approaching the end of their contracts and no clarity regarding Jackson’s future as the club’s manager. 

Oxford are the division’s joint second top scorers and could find some joy in the attacking third with the Addicks unable to cause as many problems due to a reduction in the quality of their forward line. As we approach the business end of the season, with different teams having less or more to play for, an element of unpredictability can creep in, therefore I am looking to keep two outcomes on side once again with a pro-Oxford play as Karl Robinson returns to South London.

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