Newcastle United probably anticipated the 30th game of their Premier League season would be against a mid-table outfit planning ahead for next season under new management but six wins from seven have propelled Unai Emery’s Aston Villa into contention for Europe. As a result, this is a game with implications for both sides and they will want the three points however they can get them.

Joelinton is the man I’m backing to get on the wrong side of John Brooks here. The Brazilian forward-turned-midfielder has given away a foul in ten of his last 11 league outings and at least two in seven of those, including five of his last six, despite starting as both a left-winger and central midfielder in that time.

Aston Villa have seen the opposition left-winger commit one, two, two, three and one foul in their last five matches while the left-sided central midfielder has committed two, three, one, one and four fouls.

Those numbers stack when you consider right-back Ashley Young has been fouled two or more times in six of his last ten matches, right-midfielder Jacob Ramsey has been fouled at least once in eight of his last 11 and centre-midfielder John McGinn has been fouled each of his last five starts (two or more in three of those).

A game Everton will be eyeing up as pivotal in their bid for survival as they take on mid-table Fulham at Goodison Park.

Consistency has been key for Sean Dyche since walking through the door but an early injury to Dominic Calvert-Lewin opened the door for winger Demarai Gray, who has played up top, or just off the front, in each of the last five matches.

While diminutive in stature, Gray has done a decent job of leading the line thanks to his pace and technical prowess. Part of his job is helping lead the Everton press as they look to back sides playing out from the back into corners and it has led him to commit a foul in four of his five league starts.

With Abdoulaye Doucoure still missing through suspension, it’s unknown whether Gray will play as the main striker or just off the front. Either way, Fulham have seen the opposing striker commit at least one foul in each of their last five matches and the most advanced midfielder commit one in four of the last five.

While Tosin Adarabioyo, Tim Ream and Harrison Reed are fouled intermittently, Issa Diop has been fouled in each of his last three starts and holding midfielder Joao Palhinha doesn’t mind taking a kick – he has been fouled in six of his last seven starts, including five and four fouls won against Bournemouth and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Another weekly clash between two sides looking to escape the trapdoor, albeit this one features the two sides at either end of the nine-team melee.

Crystal Palace have exploded back into life since Roy Hodgson took charge, by far the better side against both Leicester City and Leeds United to move six points clear of 18th. Southampton are now winless in five and four points adrift of safety.

A key reason for the upturn in form at Palace has been Hodgson’s ability to coach his athletic, technically capable midfield and attack to press high as a front five and it has paid off handsomely. Michael Olise, Jordan Ayew, Eberechi Eze and Jeffrey Schlupp are quick to step forward and support lone striker Odsonne Edouard and the opposition are unsure how to cope with them, all four being fouled at least twice in both of Hodgson’s games in charge.

It was Leicester and Leeds’ central midfielders taking the brunt of the pain, giving away five and eight fouls respectively over the two matches. That leads me towards James Ward-Prowse.

Both he and Romeo Lavia give away fouls regularly, the Southampton captain given away a foul in 12 of his last 14 starts and his teenage partner in 11 of his last 13. I’m backing Ward-Prowse here because is both less athletic than Lavia and has more twos against his name, giving away two fouls in six of those 14.

Whenever it comes to Brentford, you have to look at Ivan Toney and who he will be up against.

The newly-capped England striker is one of the most physical strikers in the division and enjoys both making his presence known and also drawing fouls from the opposition. In the 14 matches he has played since the World Cup break, he has given away a foul in 12 (committing two or more fouls on eight occasions) and been fouled in all 14 (fouled two or more times on 11 occasions).

It’s unsurprising, therefore, that opposition centre-backs have committed a foul in four of the last five matches played against Brentford and it’s why I’m backing Craig Dawson to force Paul Tierney to blow his whistle.

This will be something of an old-school battle with the physical Toney up against a 32-year-old that has now racked up over 250 Premier League appearances since stepping up two divisions from League One Rochdale.

Dawson has been around long enough to know you have to stand up for yourself and take one for the team occasionally – he has committed 0.94 fouls per game on average over his last four Premier League campaigns. That hasn’t slowed down – he has committed a foul in four of his last six league matches.

Another huge clash at both ends of the table as Manchester City look to close the gap on Arsenal to three points and make Dean Smith’s debut as Leicester City manager a torrid one.

As ever with Manchester City, the numbers favour looking at opposition full-backs who regularly find themselves in one v one situations with the likes of Jack Grealish, Riyad Mahrez, Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden. The opposing full-backs have committed at least one foul in each of City’s last five matches in Premier League and Champions League competition, including two or more fouls in two of the last three matches.

At right-back, 27-year-old Timothy Castagne tends to avoid trouble but January signing Victor Kristiansen is younger at 20 and finds it more difficult to avoid the referee’s ire. He has committed three, zero, three, two and one foul in his last five matches and has attempted at least three tackles in each of those matches.

He will most likely be up against former Foxes league winner and Ballon D’Or nominee Riyad Mahrez here, one of the trickiest in the business. The Algerian was rested for their Champions League quarter-final against Bayern Munich in favour of Bernardo Silva but has otherwise started ten league matches since the World Cup and has been fouled in eight of those, including three or more times on five occasions.