Arsenal v Manchester United

The Gunners made a huge step towards a top 4 finish in the Premier League and bagged an unlikely win (2 – 4) at Stamford Bridge to finally end their three-match losing run. For once, Mikel Arteta rotated and relied on his bench players and they repaid his faith as Eddie Nketiah scored a brace and Mohammed Elneny was a valuable presence in the middle of the park. The Red Devils are coming to London with a point to prove after a humiliating defeat (4 – 0) at Anfield and if they fail to secure a win at the Emirates, then United’s hopes of Champions League football next season may be truly over. It is not looking good for Rangnick who now, faces a massive decision whether to drop most of the underperformers that featured at Anfield even though his squad options are limited due to the ever-mounting injury list.

The Spanish coach welcomed his captain Alexandre Lacazette back in the squad, but the striker may have to settle for the bench again after Nketiah’s impressive performance in midweek. However, Takehiro Tomiyasu is back in training and ready to return at right-back, while Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey are ruled out. Unlike Arteta, Rangnick doesn’t have much encouraging news on the injury front as Paul Pogba joined Luke Shaw, Fred and Edinson Cavani on the sidelines, but Raphael Varane, Scott McTominay and Cristiano Ronaldo were all back in training even though it’s questionable whether they are ready to be involved from the start.

Arsenal are a mixed bag, how on earth they lost to Crystal Palace and Southampton away and yet managed to defeat the European champions shows what sort of team they are. But, they have more determination and hunger than Rangnick’s squad and they are going to be eager to end their direct rivals’ chances for top 4. The Red Devils are left with no room for another damning result know they must win, but I feel United’s hopes rely on Ronaldo’s possible return in the starting lineup which most sources agree will happen. However, I expect an open match with a lot of goals and if you look at both defences, and take the reverse fixture into account it is hard not to see goals.

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Leicester v Aston Villa

Leicester City threw away another 3 points late on, an all too familiar sight for Leicester fans in a rollercoaster season for the Foxes. A 1-1 draw at Everton followed a 2-1 defeat to Newcastle, both times conceding in stoppage time. They welcome Steven Gerrard’s Villa to the King Power having won 5 of the last 6 at home in all competitions.

Thankfully for Villa, they still hold an 8 point lead over 18^th Burnley but after 4 defeats on the bounce they will be looking over their shoulders. It’s difficult to imagine Villa being near relegation and they need to turn around this slump soon, having shipped 9 goals in their 4 losses.

Following these 4 losses, Gerrard is expected to shuffle the pack going forward to change this run of poor form but injuries at the back mean the same back line should remain. Significantly, Lucas Digne is out of this game, meaning the weaker Ashley Young will be defending against the electric Lookman in a pivotal battle. Villa have struggled to contain agile players with the likes of Son and Saka thriving against their full backs. Couple that with Leicester’s 56.3% 1v1 success rate (4^th highest in the league) and this looks a good matchup to me.

I like BTTS in this game, particularly as Leicester should rotate defensively with one eye on the Roma game. Leicester’s recent defensive stability has come as a result of Fofana and Evans who will be rested, giving plenty of opportunity to a Villa attack full of quality. With 68% of Leicester games having both teams score, I expect that trend to continue.

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Man City v Watford

Premier League leaders and UCL Semi-finalists, Manchester City host an out of form Watford in what should be a routine victory with the visitors valued at 25/1 to pick up 3 points on Saturday.

Having played Liverpool in 2 of their last 3, City enjoyed a break from their rivals with a comfortable 3-0 victory over Brighton, allowing just 2 shots and having 62% possession. Their 3^rd goal, from Bernardo, summed up City’s dominant performance with an intense pressing style used to limit Brighton’s time on the ball.

Today’s opposition pose a different problem. The Hornets appeared to be doomed for relegation and are 7 points from safety with 6 to play. In these 6 games they travel to the Etihad and Stamford Bridge, needing to pick up a tough result in at least one of them. An xG of 2.05 for just one goal in defeat to Brentford, highlighted Watford’s recent troubles in front of goal, particularly with the loss of Cucho and Sarr’s poor form.

City can’t afford to drop any points with Liverpool breathing down their necks and this should be a statement win. Watford haven’t beaten City since 1989 and lost 8-0 on their last trip to the Etihad. Kevin De Bruyne’s quality should dominate Watford’s lacklustre midfield giving him the opportunity to add to the 3 goal contributions from the 8-0. In the last 4 meetings, City have led comprehensively at half time, and I expect similar today against a Watford side who have conceded more first half goals than anyone and have the worst first half record in the league. Couple that with City’s 36 goals in the first half this season and City should fly out the box.

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Norwich v Newcastle

Having finally picked up another win over Burnley, Norwich are barely hanging on to their Premier League status in a season they will want to put behind them quickly. Conceding 66 goals and scoring just 22, they will already be preparing for life next year. The Newcastle side they welcome today have returned to fine form with 3 wins on the spin and have escaped the relegation battle they were once in.

The Canaries put in a fine performance at Old Trafford last week, outscoring United on xG and only losing 3-2 to a brilliant Cristiano Ronaldo hat trick, quite a big contrast to their last away days when they failed to register a shot on target at Brighton. With nothing to lose, Dean Smith should set up his Norwich side in a 4-2-3-1 system with the intent on attacking as draws won’t help at this point.

The Newcastle side they face today are susceptible against a 4-2-3-1 on the road, keeping just one clean sheet against the system all season, conceding 60% possession and 12 shots per game in comparison to 10 shots per game against every other formation. However, they come into this game in excellent form having won their last 3 but did ship 5 goals to Spurs the game before.

Norwich have to take the game to Newcastle today in order for 3 points, however Newcastle and particularly Brazilian starlet Bruno Guimares have been in brilliant recently. The reverse fixture finished 1-1, with Norwich dominating a 10 man Newcastle and I think BTTS should land again here.

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Brentford v Tottenham

The Bees are displaying their best brand of football of the season at the moment and they are on an impressive three-match winning streak. Thomas Frank’s stubbornness to move away from his attacking-minded, high-press approach has finally paid off after struggles in the early part of the season and Brentford are marching towards a top-half finish. Now, after noting wins against Chelsea and West Ham this month, another London-based club is coming across in town. Tottenham suffered a disappointing loss to Brighton (0-1) at home last week, which opened the door for their opponents to get close to the much wanted 4th place in the standings. Conte is definitely not happy with the performance of his players nor with the result and he is aware that Spurs can’t afford to lose many more points if they are to make the Champions League next season.

The hosts were able to welcome back Josh Dasilva back in the matchday squad in their win at Vicarage Road, but lost Ethan Pinnock to injury as he joined Frank Onyeka, Mathias Jorgensen, and Sergi Canos on the sidelines. However, the captain Jansson was back to bag the winner in stoppage time and his presence is going to soften the blow in the heart of the defence. For the visitors, Conte remains with the same squad from last week as Japhet Tanganga, Matt Doherty and Oliver Skipp are ruled out.

Brentford are on a brilliant run noting five wins out of the past six league matches and Frank’s squad must be very confident going into the match on Saturday. However, they have only kept clean sheets twice on their impressive run and even though they score regularly, they concede quite often too. Now, with possibly three centre-backs out and against a prolific Spurs side, I expect them to concede at least one goal again. It was unusual to see Son, Kane and Kulusevski so toothless last week, but with the hosts’ issues at centre-back they surely fancy their chances to get back on the scoresheet.

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