In this article…
Introduction
Seeded fourth in the group and the lowest ranked in Group C, it will be an achievement for Slovenia to make it out of the group at the European Championships.
Qualification from a finals group stage is something that Slovenia have yet to achieve in either the World Cup or European Championships. There has been only one victory in nine attempts in matches at finals, a 1-0 win over Algeria in World Cup 2010.
That group also contained England, and Slovenia will have to face the Three Lions again in their group at Euro 2024. In 2010, a solitary Jermain Defoe goal was enough for England to squeeze through into the round of 16 at Slovenia’s expense.
There are no real stars in the Slovenian squad, with the players playing all around Europe. There is a lot of international experience in the squad, with only Benjamin Sesko who is likely to start and under the age of 21.
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🔮 Euro 2024 predictions
Tournament Prediction: Group Stage exit
The chances of Slovenia’s qualification could well be decided in the second of their group stage matches against neighbours Serbia.
England and Denmark are strong opponents, and Slovenia have failed to get anything from England in six attempts in their history. Slovenia also finished behind Denmark in qualifying, drawing at home but losing away. In their other four meetings with Denmark, the Slovenes have lost.
There is very little encouragement from those statistics, so their best chance is a victory over Serbia. This isn’t particularly far-fetched, there has been one win each and two draws in their previous four meetings, but they will be outsiders for the match regardless.
The most likely scenario is for Slovenia to not qualify from the group, currently priced at 1.36 on Paddy Power. Slovenia are odds-on for this outcome and this seems fair. Three points was enough for two teams to qualify from the group stages in Euro 2016, but only one in Euro 2020, so unless they can get something from Denmark or England then odds will be against qualification for Slovenia even if they do beat Serbia.
Another bet to watch out for will be for Benjamin Sesko to be Slovenia’s top scorer at the finals. Sesko bagged five in qualification and has taken over on penalties from Andraz Sporar, so he should hold all the cards for goals for Slovenia now.
Slovenia Euro 2024 Qualifying Data
📖 How they qualified
Slovenia finished level on points with Denmark in qualification Group H and relied on excellent home form to see them through the group. They defeated all of the teams below them when they visited Ljubljana. They completed the double over Kazakhstan, Northern Ireland, and San Marino as well.
They were unable to beat Denmark in either tie, but they drew 1-1 at home, whilst losing 1-2 away, so they were able to score in each of the matches.
This was the first time that Slovenia qualified for a finals tournament directly, instead of using a play-off to get there.
Benjamin Sesko finished as Slovenia’s top scorer in the qualification tournament with five goals, this was only behind Denmark’s Rasmus Hojlund in the group.
👕 Players to watch
The only potential superstar in the Slovenian squad is young RB Leipzig forward Benjamin Sesko.
The 20-year-old came to the attention of the Red Bull network very early on. He signed a contract with Red Bull Salzburg at 16. Initially, he played for Liefering, Salzburg’s affiliated second-tier team in Austria, he scored 21 goals in 29 appearances in the 2020/21 season at that level, which led to a quick promotion into the Salzburg first team.
Even at this stage in his career, it was obvious that the pinnacle of the Red Bull empire, RB Leipzig, was going to be the destination for the young Slovenian. Sesko demonstrated his power to run the channels, hold off defenders and create space for himself, alongside a very good first touch and technical ability to link the play.
Sesko doesn’t quite, yet, have the scoring rate of some of the highest-level young strikers in the world, but his rate of around 0.75 goals per 90 in senior football is still indicative of a player with immense potential.
This Slovenian side may not have enough quality possession to provide chances for him, but watch for Sesko being able to create chances for himself and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him score at least once in the group stages.
There are two other Slovenians plying their trade at a really high level. Jaka Bijol has been a regular for Udinese in Serie A, and even if they succumb to relegation, Bijol will be in demand for a transfer to another top level team. Jan Oblak has been one of the world’s best goalkeepers for a while now, and between these three players, Slovenia will have a chance at qualification from Group C.
* All odds displayed correctly at the time of publishing *
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