We have some cracking games covered this Sunday evening, with matches in Italy, Germany, France and Spain amongst others in which our league scouts spotted some great value betting options.
Newly-crowned Serie A champions host Champions League finalists Inter in a game which could be crucial for Inter’s hopes of qualifying for next year’s competition if they are unable to overcome Man City in the final next month.
Sporting will look to dent city-rivals Benfica’s title hopes when they welcome them to the Estadio Jose Alvalade, whilst PSG could become Ligue 1 champions yet again with a win against 16th-placed Auxerre, depending on the result of Lens’ game away at Lorient.
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Napoli v Inter Milan
At other points in the season, this would have appeared to be an absolutely massive game and had Inter got their act together earlier, it may well have been a thriller. As things are, Napoli are already champions and have no reason to battle hard, other than for the entertainment of their own fans.
The thing is though, there is a huge duty to entertain the fans for these Napoli players and many of them know that they are playing to either secure a new contract or maintain and intensify the interest of other clubs in them.
Inter may have made fairly light work of Milan in the Champions League on Tuesday, but it was still a huge game which will have seen plenty of celebration afterwards. Napoli have a great opportunity to pounce and score early here.
That being said, with the way that so many players in the Inter squad are finding form and goals now, you can’t say with any degree of certainty that they will not score at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Lautaro Martinez, Edin Dzeko and Romelu Lukaku are in great form and at least two of them will likely start, and they have much more to play for than Napoli with the top four fight not sewn up.
This game could feature plenty of goals with a lot of attacking talent on the pitch, with a real end-of-season feeling in Naples.
FC Copenhagen v AGF Aarhus
This week’s highlight of the Danish Superliga is the fixture between Copenhagen and AGF. It is a match between two teams who are both fighting for the championship, and also two fan bases that doesn’t like each other at all.
Thursday afternoon, FC Copenhagen won the Danish Cup final. They defeated AaB 1-0 in the final, and this gave them a confidence boost. However, there should be no title hangover, as head coach Jacob Neestrup firmly disallowed his players to celebrate the title with alcohol. Copenhagen are chasing the double, and Neestrup doesn’t allow any distractions.
Last weekend, the lions from the capital defeated arch rivals Brøndby, and they are now leading the Superliga with three games left. Copenhagen are thus in pole position to secure the double, but they are struggling offensively. Ajax loanee Mohamed Daramy suffered an injury against Brøndby, and he is doubtful for this match. He’s Copenhagen’s biggest star and a huge loss.
To make things worse, Copenhagen are also without Swedish international Viktor Claesson, the other offensive ace, and striker Hakan Haraldsson as well as reserve Marko Stamenic, striker Andreas Cornelius, captain Carlos Zeca and defenders Nikolai Boilesen and Davit Khocholava.
AGF secured a vital point at home against FC Nordsjælland last weekend. Peter Bjur equalized for AGF in the dying minutes, and their hopes of winning medals remain alive. AGF are five points behind Copenhagen, and a victory in this match would thus shoot them right into the championship fight.
AGF’s biggest strength is their defense. They are nearly impossible to break down and give very few chances away. Unfortunately for the guests, their offense isn’t at the same level. Top scorer Patrick Mortensen has scored just twice in the championship round, but both goals on penalties.
We expect a low scoring and intense match here. Neither team can afford to lose, and AGF will arrive with a defensive strategy.
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayer Leverkusen were eliminated from the Europa League by AS Roma on Thursday night as they looked to play in their first European final since 2002. But that could work in Leverkusen’s favour as Xabi Alonso’s side look for a response against Borussia Monchengladbach as they look to secure a place in next season’s UEFA Europa Conference League with two games remaining.
Only Bochum and Hertha Berlin have picked up fewer points than Borussia Monchengladbach this season. Daniel Farke has also come under criticism in recent weeks, particularly by Gladbach’s Sporting Director Roland Virkus, who was unhappy with their performance against Borussia Dortmund which resulted in a 5-2 defeat. Despite that, he renounced his support for Farke who will be in charge for the final two games of the season before they analyse their performance over the summer.
As for Bayer Leverkusen, they dominated AS Roma on Thursday night but failed to find a way past their low block whilst the Italian side frustrated Bayer by slowing the game down at every opportunity. Sardar Azmoun had an excellent chance in the first half but the lack of a No. 9 this season has perhaps been B04’s weakness. Patrik Schick, last season’s top scorer for the Werkself, has spent the majority of this season on the sideline with an injury.
Alonso’s Leverkusen have won four of their last five Bundesliga games at home and have scored at least two goals in 10 of their last 12 home games. Moussa Diaby continued to be their main threat with 18 goal contributions (9 goals, 9 assists) in 31 Bundesliga games this season. Leverkusen have also benefitted from the return of Florian Wirtz, but they’re just missing that forward who will score goals from a central position. However, expect the explosive pace and ingenuity that Diaby possesses to cause Gladbach’s defence problems.
Gladbach have just two clean sheets in 16 away games in the Bundesliga this season and you would certainly expect Bayer Leverkusen to control the game. Although they failed to score against a deep block vs Roma, Gladbach is a different opposition that will look to attack. Expect Leverkusen to exploit any space left behind and for them to win this one.
Valencia v Real Madrid
Sunday’s evening kick-off sees two wounded animals come face to face at Mestalla as Valencia seek to continue to climb away from the relegation zone while Real Madrid look to bounce back from their Champions League humiliation at the hands of Manchester City. The most likely outcome is a tie with goals.
Valencia have seen both teams on the scoresheet in each of their last four matches and have kept just one clean sheet, against bottom team Elche, since early March. However, they keep scoring. Since Rubén Baraja’s appointment, they have only failed to score in three games; his debut against Getafe and against Barcelona and Atlético Madrid away from home. Given that Valencia have found the back of the net in every game at Mestalla with him in the dugout, they’ll be optimistic of scoring against a leaky Real Madrid team.
Real Madrid have conceded nine goals in their last six games in LaLiga, and in the last month alone both Girona and Manchester City have put four past them. They’ve only kept one clean sheet in their last seven matches in all competitions. However, they’ve also scored 11 goals in their last six league matches, ranking fourth in the league and actually underscoring their xG of 12.89. That means that even if Ancelotti makes changes to rest the likes of Karim Benzema after his midweek disappointment against Manchester City, the substitutes, such as in-form Marco Asensio, should be able to step up.
Auxerre v PSG
Both Auxerre and PSG have much on the line when the teams meet at Stade Abbe-Deschamps on Sunday night. AJA are desperately battling relegation while PSG still need points to close out the league title, which could be secured on Sunday depending on how results elsewhere pan out earlier in the weekend. This combination, though, should make for a comparatively open affair.
PSG, of course, start as hot favourites. Christophe Galtier’s side have not been convincing in their performances lately, but they have still managed to win five of their last six matches. They have been particularly efficient away from home, with five road successes on the bounce in Ligue 1. In four of these five games, there has been Over 2.5 goals.
Last weekend, meanwhile, PSG eased to a 5-0 victory over a poor Ajaccio side. It was their first cleansheet in four matches and just a second in their last 10. Auxerre will fancy their chances of breaching the visitors’ defence, particularly since Troyes, Angers and Brest, all teams around them in the table, have been able to do so.
AJA, though, suffered an ill-timed defeat against relegation rivals Brest last weekend. They had gone into that match having lost just one of their previous six. It is difficult to see a positive outcome in this game, even in spite of PSG’s defensive woes.
PSG should get the victory here and it is worth pairing with Over 2.5 goals given the visitors’ scoring power and defensive difficulties. The last time the teams met, the Parisians were 5-0 winners.
Guabira v Jorge Wilstermann
Wilstermann have finally shrugged off the negative start to the season which included winless games and a six point deduction. They are now on a five game unbeaten run of five including three clean sheets in the latest three. The only worrying aspect is their recent heavy reliance on the goals of Rudy Cardozo and Vladimir Castellon.
Guabira for their part have lost their way somewhat in their last three outings, drawing 2-2 against Vaca Diez before losing the last two games without scoring a goal. Despite this Guabira are still a force to be reckoned with at home and one senses they are more likely to pull off a win.
Both games during 2022 between the sides were draws which points to close games which are the norm between these sides. The team’s goal average is also low, Guabira’s is 2.5, while Wilstermann’s is even lower at 2.08. Considering that Cardozo will be back from suspension for this game, logic points to a narrow Guabira win, with under 2.5 goals.
Sporting Lisbon v Benfica
Two years ago, Benfica defeated Sporting 4-3 to subject Rúben Amorim’s side to their first and only league defeat all season. Sporting could be forgiven for feeling a bit distracted; they had just sealed their first league title in 19 years four days earlier. The following year, Benfica fell to a 1-0 defeat to Porto in the penultimate match of the season, with Zaidu Sanusi’s extra time goal allowing Porto to seal the league title in their rivals’ stadium.
Today, Benfica have a chance to secure their first championship in four years and their 38th overall, in Sporting’s stadium. After a shaky start to April that saw them lose to Porto and Chaves and exit the Champions League at the hands of Inter, Roger Schmidt’s side closed out the month with a 1-0 win against Estoril Praia and a 2-0 win at Gil Vicente, before beating Braga 1-0 and thrashing Portimonense 5-1.
They have the best attack (77 goals scored) and the best defense (18 goals conceded) in the league, and after two consecutive third-place finishes, they sit four points above Porto and nine above Braga. They have never relinquished the league’s top spot this season, and despite losing Enzo Fernández to Chelsea midway through the season, they have remained consistent with Chiquinho and João Neves stepping up in midfield alongside other key players like David Neres and Fredrik Aursnes.
They are closing in on their first trophy since the 2019/20 Supertaça and will be facing off against a Sporting side that sits four points behind Braga and that looks set to be returning to the Europa League after two straight seasons making it to the Champions League group stage.
Sporting will be without starting goalkeeper Antonio Adán and are coming off a narrow 2-1 win against relegation battlers Marítimo, and whilst they have taken a step backwards domestically, their crosstown rivals look set to return to the promised land under Schmidt. I’m backing Benfica to get at least a point at the Estádio José Alvalade and move one step closer towards securing the championship.
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