Union Saint-Gilloise v Club Brugge
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Sunday 8th May – 12:30PM KO
The two games that will likely decide the destination of the Pro League title begin with a home tie for the league leaders Union Saint-Gilloise on Sunday lunchtime. Club Brugge are the only team this season that Union have failed to beat, losing 1-0 and drawing 0-0 in their two regular season games, but they still arrive here with a 3 point advantage, which gives them some breathing room.
These two sides have been clearly the best sides in the Pro League, however, Brugge arrived in the play-offs having won 8 games in a row, but their start has been somewhat unconvincing. They were the worse of the two sides in their 0-0 draw with Anderlecht, being outshot by 11-5 and producing only 0.82xG compared to Anderlecht’s 1.36. Their win against Antwerp was also unconvincing, the week break before the start of the play-offs perhaps breaking up their momentum and allowing the other sides to regroup.
Union have kept broadly consistent with their regular season form, and look to be in slightly better shape, but this really is a toss up. The one thing I would expect is this to be a cagey, low-scoring affair. A defeat for Club Brugge would ensure the opportunity to win the title is no longer in their hands. To take control of the title race they must win one of these two games, and win or draw the other.
The hosts have averaged 1.4xG per game in the first two rounds of the play-offs, conceding 1.2xG per game, with an average of 2 goals per game, pretty much exactly as you would expect from those numbers. The visitors Brugge have created 0.9xG across their first two play-off games, conceding 1.15xG on average. They have averaged under a goal per game in the play-offs thus far, with 1 goal in their 2 games, and this startling drop-off in form demonstrates their struggles in getting their attack to fire as it was during the end of the regular season.
An open-ended game with plenty of chances would be a huge surprise. Brugge have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their 8 games against the top-4 sides, whilst Union have also seen under 2.5 goals in over half of their 8 games against top-4 opponents (5 of 8).
The visitors play-off struggles are nothing new either, with last season seeing them almost lose out on the title to Genk despite arriving in the play-offs with a 14-point advantage. This enormous collapse is unlikely to occur again this season to quite the same extent, but they have been noticeably worse considering their strong end-of-season form.
Brugge cannot afford to lose, whereas a draw would suit Union, so I would expect both sides to be conservative in their approach, and especially if there are no early goals, Brugge will likely wait until late in the game to try and push forward and secure the win. They will also likely be happy with a draw away from home, allowing them to really go for it in the return leg in midweek, where a win following a draw would move them to the top of the table.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.95 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Antwerp v Anderlecht
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Sunday 8th May – 5:30PM KO
The final game of this Pro League weekend in Belgium features the two sides who are all but out of title contention. Both sides are 10 points behind league leaders Union with 4 games to play, and now can only hope to play in the Conference League next season, the question is whether they will enter in the final play-off round, or whether they will play the winners of the second play-off group in a final play-off for the chance to play in Europe next season.
Both sides have lost one and drawn one of their 2 play-off games so far, with both sides holding the title contenders Brugge and Union to goalless draws last time out, after losing their first games. Antwerp also know they must finish ahead of Anderlecht on points, as they were the beneficiaries of rounding when the point totals were halved before the start of the play-offs.
With points likely to be hard to come by in the final two rounds where both sides face Union and Club Brugge again, these two games are crucial, and Antwerp must win at least once in those two games, and avoid defeat in the other to finish above Anderlecht as they arrive level on points. A win for Anderlecht in either of these games will ensure they enter the final two rounds ahead of the Reds.
The chance to play European football is of huge importance for both sides, with the financial boost from even a European group stage enough to ensure both sides can continue to grow and compete for titles in the future. These two games will be hard fought battles, and though these play-offs have generally seen low-scoring ties, these are the exceptions to the rule in Belgium, and it seems likely that this game will open up somewhat compared to previous weeks.
Anderlecht have seen both sides scoring in 5 of their 8 games against sides in the championship play-offs this season, whilst Antwerp have seen both sides scoring in 4 of 8. The hosts have conceded in 6 of their 8 games, whilst the side from Brussels have conceded in 7 of 8. Both sides have excellent attacking units but their defensive organisation, though excellent last week has been lacking all season, especially in games against the sides in the top-4.
Antwerp need to win at least one of these games to leave the chance to qualify automatically in their own hands, so it seems likely they will go for it in this game. Anderlecht’s poor defensive record against the top sides will give them confidence, but with Anderlecht being the league’s second-highest scorers with 73 goals, keeping them out will be a major challenge.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, Yes, 1.6 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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