Genk v Standard Liege

The first game of this Sunday in the Pro League sees Genk hosting Standard Liege, who shocked Gent by snatching a last-minute draw despite a first-half red card in the first round of games. Gent have also had an interesting first week, losing in the last minute to reigning champions Club Brugge after a fantastic first 90 minutes of Pro League football, and then lost last season’s top assist-maker and third-highest goalscorer Junya Ito, who was sold to Stade Reims for €9m.

Replacing Ito will be a challenge for the Limburg side, but even without him they still have a solid squad capable of competing for the European places. They have also sold Kristian Thorstvedt in this window, and it doesn’t necessarily look like the club are keen to reinvest the combined €18m they have received for these two sales, which does make their task even more challenging.

Liege meanwhile are more likely to be looking over their shoulder at the relegation places than climbing towards the play-offs, despite the positive start. They have lost key players like Genk, and also made little to no effort to replace them. They may have grabbed a point in last week’s game, but they were assisted by a penalty and some fantastic goalkeeping from Bodart in goal. This much good fortune is unlikely to last.

Neither side has any injury concerns heading into this one, and it should provide a good marker for what both sides can expect from the season following tough starts for both. Each side performed admirably in their first games of the 2022-23, but these games are the ones that will really determine where they finish this Pro League season, not games against title contenders like Club Brugge and Gent.

Genk’s squad is simply superior, and I expect them to perform in front of their own fans, who will no doubt be concerned by the club’s transfer window so far. Liege are missing first-choice left-back Calut, which will hamper them, and I expect Genk to claim their first win of the season here.

Eupen v Club Brugge

Next up is Eupen playing host to reigning Pro League champions Club Brugge, fresh from their third league title in a row. Brugge have started the season with two wins, defeating Gent in the Supercup, then squeezing past Genk with a last-minute winner from Andreas Skov Olsen. Olsen appears to be taking up the mantle of Charles De Ketelaere who appears to be on the way out. The 21-year-old Belgian has been the subject of interest from top clubs across Europe following his player of the season campaign last time out.

Eupen meanwhile head into the second round of fixtures bottom of the Pro League, having lost 3-1 to Charleroi. Despite having 7 of their 8 shots hit the target, they struggled to make an impact and unlike other sides who have had busy transfer windows, Eupen’s does not appear to have been so smooth, with the side looking disjointed and unsure. They will struggle today against what is by some distance the best squad in the division.

Eupen have bet on young talent, and signed several relatively unproven sides from minor leagues around the world, and only time will tell if this will pay off, but they are doing this at the worst possible time, with this season seeing three sides being relegated instead of the usual one. Only 9 players to play more than 1000 minutes for Eupen in the Pro League in 2021-22 remain at the club, and that was very evident in their first game last time out.

Club Brugge struggled to balance European commitments with their domestic games last season, and this could be an issue again during the Champions League group stages, so they need to get as many points on the board as possible and take advantage of the time before European football begins.

Ultimately, this should be a very comfortable win for the visitors. Eupen look very weak this season and could well find themselves in the First Division B next year. Brugge meanwhile should retain their title once again if the squad performs to the level expected of them, and games like this need to result in three points.

Seraing v Kortrijk

Seraing remained in the Pro League last season through a 1-0 aggregate win over RWD Molenbeek in the relegation play-off; whilst Kortrijk were solidly midtable, remaining in the spots just outside the play-offs for the majority of the campaign.

Neither side looks to have done much this transfer window to improve their chances for this season,  with Seraing letting key players leave and replacing them with young, inexperienced, and unproven players. The visitors also lost some of their most-used players and though their signings are certainly a cut above those made by Seraing, they look set to remain in the midtable mire.

Seraing were absolutely dominated by Zulte-Waregem in their opening game, a result made even more worrying when you consider that they finished only one place below the side from West Flanders last season. They did not have a single corner, shot on target, and registered just 2 shots all game. They conceded 2.7 xG and generated just 0.16 for themselves. If this is replicated across the season they could be in real trouble, given that this was one of the few games they could hope to get a result.

Kortrijk also had a poor start, falling 2-0 at home to OH Leuven. Though they turned in a solid showing, especially in the first half, the ease with which Leuven saw out the game must be a concern, particularly as those two sides also finished very close to each other in the final standings last year. The shooting was wayward, with just 2 of 15 total shots finding the mark, and failing to score despite generating 1.14xG.

All the signs point towards two sides still figuring things out, and with neither side having scored yet this season, and generating just 1.3xG between them, goals look likely to be hard to come by in this game. Seraing surely cannot be that poor again this week, whilst Kortrijk threw everything at Leuven after falling behind in the second half and barely made a dent.

My only concern is that Seraing are truly awful and fold, but even if they are extremely poor, Kortrijk do not look like a side with enough cutting-edge to take advantage of this. For that reason I am going for under 2.5 goals as a four-star selection here.

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Royal Antwerp v Zulte-Waregem

Finally for Sunday’s Pro League fixtures, we land in Antwerp, where two sides who got off to flying starts face off. Antwerp were more fortunate in their 2-0 victory, edging past Mechelen, who had more of the ball and outshot today’s hosts, yet were unable to make that count. Zulte-Waregem meanwhile absolutely dominated Seraing, and really should have won by more than the 2-goal margin they ended up with.

Z-W were one of the most exciting sides to watch in the Pro League last season, with high-scoring games in abundance due to their gung-ho attacking approach and at times truly shocking defending. The opening game suggested this is likely to be the case again this season, and though they had an easy ride last week against a blunt Seraing attack, there are even more question marks around the defence this season, with two of their three most-used centre-backs departing.

They will face a much sterner test here, with last season’s golden boot runner-up Michael Frey leading the Antwerp line. His 22 goals last season is the most for any player still in the Pro League for 2022-23, and he started strongly with a brace in the opener. Waregem always take the game to their opponents, and the space this opens up will be appreciated by Miyoshi, Frey and Balikwisha across the front three.

Antwerp are of course a much better side than the visitors, but there are always surprises in store with Waregem. Goals are near-certain here, although calling which way they land is more challenging. I would expect Antwerp to win the game, on paper they should win comfortably, but keeping a clean sheet against a side that plays like Waregem is never easy.

Both Teams to Score is certainly an attractive looking option, but a 3-0 win for the hosts is not unrealistic at all, and for that reason the better option is to instead select over 2.5 goals here. More games are needed before we can really judge where this Waregem side is at in 2022-23, whilst the quality of the hosts cannot be disregarded, even if they have a habit of underperforming relative to expectations.

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