Genk vs Standard Liege

The first game in this Sunday’s slate of Pro League games sees current occupants of the final play-off spot Genk hosting 13th-placed Standard Liege. Genk have been in good form at the Luminus Arena, unbeaten in four games, with three wins, including against fifth-placed Charleroi and a creditable draw against second-placed Antwerp. Liege’s form meanwhile has been more mixed, with just one win in five. They have fared better on the road, with two wins and a draw in the last five, including beating Antwerp 3-2.

Genk have scored in all of their last six home fixtures, and have only failed to score once at home all season. Their last seven games have seen at least two goals, and have scored 12 goals in their last five matches, so they look good for more goals here.

They average 3.5 goals per game at home, the fourth-highest total in the Pro League, scoring 2.17 of those goals. With an xG of 1.97, this is hardly unsustainable and we should expect that it will continue throughout the season. Throughout the season, Genk have conceded in 67% of their home games, whilst overall 16 of their 25 games have seen Both Teams to Score land. Eight of their 13 games against bottom-half opposition have seen BTTS land also.

Les Rouches meanwhile have scored in every single one of their last nine games away from home, with all of their last five seeing a minimum of two goals being scored. Four of their last five away games have seen BTTS land, with 64% of all their games seeing the selection come in. Having played 18 games against opponents above them in the table, both sides have found the net in 15 of these games.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sint-Truiden

League leaders Union’s dream return to the top-flight after a multi-decade absence continues to be one of the best stories on the continent in 2021/22. After coming through three games against the sides directly below them in the table unbeaten, having kept three clean sheets and winning two of these games, nobody can argue that they would be worthy Pro League champions. They will be glad to have put that difficult run behind them, and now Felice Mazzu’s side can look forward to a much more comfortable run-in.

They start with a visit from Sint-Truiden, solidly midtable, but by no means a pushover. However, with Les Apaches now unbeaten in 10 games overall, and 5 matches at the Stade Joseph Marien, and four clean sheets in their last five. Averaging an impressive 2 goals per game on their own patch, and conceding just 0.92 per 90, their record of 50% clean sheets is unmatched across the division.

Having won all but one of the 11 games they have played against bottom-half opposition, the one aberration being a very unlucky 3-1 loss to Leuven back in November, there is little reason to expect anything other than a win for L’Union in this one.

Sint-Truiden will not be relishing the prospect of travelling to Brussels to face Union, and with good reason. They concede 1.5xGA per game away from home, and are scoring less than a goal per game on average. In seven games against the current top-4, they have lost four of these games, winning just once. Furthermore, they have been unable to win away from home against any of the top-6 all season long. They will look to dig in and get a point, but Union should be too strong.

Club Brugge vs Sporting Charleroi

Perhaps the most interesting of the four Pro League fixtures on Sunday sees reigning champions Club Brugge up against fifth-placed Sporting Charleroi. The Blauw en Zwart are in danger of dropping out of the title race entirely even before the play-offs begin, now sitting twelve points behind Pro League leaders Union, and having already played them twice. 

Meanwhile, The Zebras of Charleroi are now just two points behind Anderlecht, and after appearing to be too far back to push for the final championship play-off spot will now feel they can perhaps sneak in, with both Anderlecht and Brugge stuttering in recent weeks.

Whilst Brugge are generally involved in high-scoring games, this does not apply to games involving their fellow occupants of the top-5 spots, with only one game in six seeing more than two goals. They have struggled to find the net with the same regularity they did early on in the season, scoring just six times in five games, and seeing over 2.5 goals land in just two of their last five home games. 

They are more than capable of keeping teams out however, holding the league leaders to a 0-0 draw a couple of weeks back, and are fourth in the Pro League for clean sheets, forcing their opponents to draw a blank 35% of the time. 

Charleroi meanwhile have a similar record, running up the score against lower standard opposition, but scoring just four goals against top-7 opposition. In games against the top-4, they have scored just twice all season. However, they are similarly adept at keeping the ball out of their own net, with 10 clean sheets (38%) to their name, good enough for second in the league overall, just behind the league leaders who have 13.

The odds are super high here considering the cagey games which both sides have tended to play out against other top opposition, and I think there’s some real value in this selection. If you’d like to play it a little bit safer, under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.5 on Betfair is also a great selection, and gives you a little more breathing room.

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Beerschot vs Kortrijk

Finally for this weekend of Pro League action, we arrive in the outskirts of Antwerp, to the home of Beerschot, the Olympisch Stadion. De Ratten are rock-bottom, and have been ever since the third weekend of the season. 

They host Kortrijk, who have been hovering around the lower half of the second play-off group all season long, but have now begun to slide down the table, following a run of three successive defeats. They will know a visit to Beerschot presents a fantastic opportunity to push back towards the top-8.

Beerschot have conceded 1.85 goals per game this season at home, whilst only mustering 0.85 goals of their own in return. With nobody in the squad contributing more than four goals, this is perhaps not surprising, but Beerschot should not be entirely written off, having scored three times in both of their last two home games.

Despite this recent purple patch at home, they have failed to score in six of their last 10 games at home, and in 69% of their home games this season overall, all the while conceding at least once in 85%. Kortrijk are miserly at both ends, scoring 1.31 per game, and conceding 1.15 per game, suggesting another goal-fest at the Olympisch is unlikely here.

Kortrijk are currently unbeaten in all nine games against the current bottom-6, and have scored in eight of their last nine away fixtures. They should definitely win this fixture, however, they have drawn more than any other side in the Pro League this season (10 times in 26 games, 38%), and despite their lowly position, Beerschot are not incapable of taking scalps. They have proven this throughout the season, especially against mid-table opposition, which is why I am choosing to be a little more cautious here and go for Draw No Bet rather than Kortrijk to win outright.

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