Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund
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Sunday 16th October – 4:30PM KO
Borussia Dortmund travel to leaders Union Berlin on Sunday afternoon with four points separating the two teams. Coming into this game on the back of a 1-1 draw against Sevilla in the Champions League on Tuesday night, Borussia Dortmund have had 48 hours longer than Union to prepare for this clash with Urs Fischer’s Union beating Malmo 1-0 in the Europa League on Thursday.
Under Fischer, Union Berlin have always been a difficult team to play against. With just 6 goals conceded in the Bundesliga this season, Die Eisernen have the best defence in the league after 9 games. Only in their 2-0 defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt on October 1 have Union conceded 2 or more goals in a league game. Playing with a back 5, Union like to play with a low block and as we’ve seen from Borussia Dortmund several times this season, they struggle to break down defences that sit deep. With an opponents xG of 10, Union also don’t allow their opponents to create and only 3 teams average more tackles won per 90 than Union’s 18 in the Bundesliga.
Going forward, Sheraldo Becker and Jordan Pefok have scored 9 and created 5 between them. The duo are one of Europe’s deadliest partnership’s this season and Mats Hummels and Co. will need to be at their best to sit deep enough as to not allow Becker to utilise his pace behind and to combat the physical threat that Pefok brings to this Union team. With 16 goals scored from an xG of 10, Union are one of the Bundesliga’s most clinical teams this season.
As for Borussia Dortmund, Edin Terzic has been given a boost with the return of Marco Reus. Midweek, they struggled to overcome a poor Sevilla side, Jude Bellingham equalising after they went behind to a Tanguy Nianzou header, another poorly defended set-piece. Even 9 games into the Bundesliga season, it’s difficult to pinpoint Terzic’s philosophy. They don’t really excel in any area, but they do have an admirable work rate. 9 teams have scored more than BVB’s 13 goals this season.
Unbeaten at home, Union have conceded just 3 goals in 4 games and they’ve scored no more than 2 goals at home this season. Meanwhile other than BVB’s first away game against Freiburg, winning 1-3, Reus and Co. have looked poor away from home, losing their last two Bundesliga games. It’s likely that both teams will cancel each other out. Potentially a 1-1 draw would be a good ‘correct score’ bet. Expect this to be low scoring. Betfair offering a good value of 1.90 for Under 2.5 goals.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.90 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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