Envigado v Alianza Petrolera
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Sunday 17th July- 8:00:PM KO
Envigado and Alianza Petrolera are two sides who are generally capable of sneaking into the playoffs when everything falls into place or struggling at the bottom when they don’t.
In the Apertura season, Alianza Petrolera finished one in 9th outside of the playoffs on goal difference while Envigado qualified in 6th. Envigado only picked up a single point from six games in the playoffs, finishing with a goal difference of -10.
Envigado has one of the great academies of Colombian football producing dozens of national team stars including James Rodriguez, Juan Fernando Quintero, Frank Fabra, Matheus Uribe, Jhon Cordoba, Fredy Rincon, Dorlan Pabon, and most recently Yaser Asprilla who just finalized his move to Watford. A tiny club with a limited budget, the focus has traditionally been solely on producing talent and using the first team as the shop window.
With Spanish investors and greater financial stability in recent years, the project has shifted slightly but the focus is still on competing and providing the platform for top young talent. This often means Envigado are capable of incredibly impressive performances but can be inconsistent and lack the mental toughness in the biggest games.
In the playoffs this year they lost their opener against Tolima and then threw in a load of kids for the exposure and experience, once an unlikely title win became even more unlikely.
Envigado started the Clausura with a respectable 0-0 home draw against Cali giants America and then a 4-0 collapse away against a very limited Pasto side. The result was very flattering to the hosts with two of the goals coming in the final minutes but a disastrous, confidence-sapping start for Envigado following a poor playoff showing.
Envigado play a 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 formation depending on the opposition with quick wingers who lead the press supporting a focal point striker. Experienced Venezuelan Hernandez usually leads the line with Rodriguez as a potential alternative.
Diego Moreno was unavailable against Pasto and the composed midfielder was seriously missed. Central midfielder William Hurtado (18), defender Carlos Alberto Ordóñez (20) and winger Daniel Felipe Arcila (20) are the latest prospects coming through, although none are on the level of their top-tier caneranos.
Alianza Petrolera started the season with a good 2-1 away win against a limited Pereira and then a terrible 1-0 home defeat against poor but improving Union Magdalena. Alianza Petrolera are all about pace and athleticism in wide areas but a lack of a real high-quality central stiker holds them back.
Brayan Gil is talented, quick, and dynamic but hasn’t been able to recreate the incredible scoring numbers he produced in El Salvador as a teenager. More experienced Brayan Fernandez is a more consistent finisher but doesn’t have the same overall contribution.
This is a game of two very inconsistent, unpredictable teams who can beat anyone in the league on their day but can fall apart when things aren’t clicking. I think Envigado will bounce back from their disastrous mid-week defeat in Pasto to put a show at home in this one. I expect Envigado to press, dominate possession and control the game. They will need to be wary of quick Alianza counters but I see the hosts coming out on top.
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Prediction: Envigado to score over 0.5 Goals, 1.36 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Santa Fe v Cortulua
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Sunday 17th July – 10:05PM KO
Santa Fe is a side that is still on their path to recovery after a very poor start to 2022. It is not yet clear how high the ceiling is and they do have limitations but I expect them to continue to improve throughout the 2022 Clausura season.
The directors brought in Argentine Martin Cardetti and backed him to shape the side with a strong emphasis on attacking options from his homeland. This emphatically did not work and despite a slight upturn in form towards the end of his tenure a change was very much welcomed by the fans.
Uruguayan Alfredo Arias has come in and there are signs of improvement, although still tentative at this stage.
They have drawn the first two games of the Clausura season 2-2. Both were played away and featured late drama; they scored in the final minute to snatch a point against La Equidad and then conceded in the 95th minute against Rionegro Aguilas.
Santa Fe usually play with attacking fullbacks, Morelo the penalty box poacher and a combination of the energetic Matias Mier, Neyder Moreno and Wilfredo de la Rosa pressing and supporting behind. Against Rionegro they brought in Rivera for De La Rosa to shift from a 4-2-3-1 to a 4-3-3. Experienced midfielder Carlos Sanchez can drop between the central defenders to build the play and allow the fullbacks to push on.
Despite the managerial change Santa Fe have been consistent in the approach all year and haven’t made significant changes in personnel during the break. If they cut out the defensive lapses, they should have a solid, balanced side.
While Santa Fe have a squad of solid, measured, tidy players, Cortulua are a side with a lot more energy, invention and youth. Returning to the top flight in 2022, they finished 18th in the Apertura and will need a much stronger Clausura to avoid the drop.
Cortulua opened their campaign with a 1-1 draw away against Apertura champions Atletico Nacional with striker Mercado equalizing late from the penalty spot. On paper a strong star however all of the players who appeared in the final for Nacional were rested for the game and the hosts still dominated for large spells with a reserve team.
The Valle side then followed this up with a disappointing 1-0 loss at home to a decent, experienced Jaguares side which has been slightly botched together with players who have fallen out of favor elsewhere.
Cortulua’s star man is attacking midfielder Alexis Castillo Manyoma (19) who looks likely to move abroad in the coming weeks. They play in a 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3 with two big but inexperienced central defenders and quick, dangerous inverted wingers. The combination of Caicedo and Colorado in midfield is decent. With Ruiz moving to Millonarios, Mercado has been given a chance in attack following a strong pre-season. The clinical finisher is a bit of a journeyman and takes his chances well but isn’t capable of making something from nothing; good service is key.
This is a game between two decent sides who are still suffering the psychological impact of a poor start to the season. I believe the top flight experience and strong midfield core of Santa Fe should prove decisive in this one. The home advantage should also be an important factor with the hosts far more comfortable with the cold weather, the drizzle and altitude of Bogota.
Santa Fe should get the win as long as they can focus and cut out the defensive mistakes.
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Prediction: Santa Fe to Win, 1.53 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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