Burnley v Liverpool

Liverpool make the short trip to Burnley looking to narrow the gap on leaders Manchester City yet again in a clash against bottom of the league.

The reds were dominant on Thursday night, easing past Leicester thanks to a Diogo Jota brace in a 2-0 victory. They were also able to welcome back star man and Premier League top scorer Mohammed Salah, adding another whole level to an already firing attack. Luis Diaz was exciting and there is plenty for Liverpool fans now have plenty of depth to be excited about.

Burnley also had a positive midweek result, grabbing a deserved point against top 6 side Man United with their 6^th draw in 9 home games this season. Wout Weghorst came up with his first goal contribution assisting Jay Rodriguez after turning United skipper Maguire.

Liverpool need to win here to keep pace with City and could look to make this a statement win. They are in form at turf moor, winning their last 4 with the over 2.5 goals market landing in each of those wins. The consistency of Salah, Mane and Jota this season has led to Liverpool scoring 33 goals on their 12 travels while conceding 13. The over 2.5 has landed in 10 of those away games at a rate of 83%, the highest in the league. I expect business as usual for Klopp’s men and goals a plenty for their front 3.

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Newcastle v Aston Villa

Following victory at Everton, Newcastle host their second game of their week, and will hope for a second victory to build their gap over the bottom 3.

Despite all their recruitment, Newcastle have kept one clean sheet since December 4^th, coming against fellow strugglers Leeds. A delightful free kick from Kieran Trippier was the pick of their goals on Tuesday as they put 3 past Everton. Confidence is growing and Newcastle are a different proposition to the side Villa beat earlier in the season, particularly going forward. Throw Bruno Guimares into the mix, after Eddie Howe announced he was ready to play, and Newcastle could cause Villa many problems.

Gerrard’s Villa also look a different outfit to the side from the reverse fixture, which is a credit to Phillipe Coutinho’s return to the life in the Prem. He has also brought the best form out of fellow midfielder Jacob Ramsey, with both players contributing to 4 goals in their last 3 appearances. Gerrard’s narrow 4-3-3 system works well when played against another 4-3-3 like Newcastle play, with both games against Leeds and United’s similar systems combining for 10 goals. They should be able to exploit Newcastle’s weakness at centre back with their narrow front 3 combining in tight spaces to break them down.

Overall, I really like BTTS in this game which has landed in 9 of Newcastle’s 12 home games this season, the highest rate in the league. Especially with Newcastle and Villa’s attacking form and that is my tip in this game.

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Spurs v Wolves

Two sides formerly managed by Nuno Espirito-Santo meet on Sunday, looking for a change of fortunes following midweek defeats. Spurs blew a lead twice in a disappointing collapse against Southampton in the midweek, while Wolves failed to break down 10 men Arsenal losing 1-0.

Spurs have traditionally been a strong side at home this season and it was a shock loss to Southampton while Wolves rank top 6 for points away from home. I personally don’t like the look of either side’s odds to win this game and will be turning to the card market.

Firstly, referee Kevin Friend averages 5.75 yellows per game this season, a higher average than any other Prem ref.  Wolves are a side that draw plenty of yellow cards averaging 2 per game away and 2.41 per game overall, the highest rate in the league. They frustrate opposition teams with their impressive defence and I could see Spurs struggling to break them down and lash out.

Spurs had two players carded in their home game on Wednesday, with 2 of the 3 centre backs getting bullied by Che Adams and Broja. Expect Raul Jimenez to play a similar role with at least one of the back three likely to pick up a card against the big striker. I’m taking Spurs over 1.5 cards in this game, considering the ref’s record and Spurs record. They also had 4 in the reverse fixture at Molineux.

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Leicester v West Ham

Under pressure Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers is in desperate need of 3 points as his side host high flying West Ham here.

Injury hit Leicester lined up without a recognised centre back at Anfield as their defensive woes continued, with Rodgers’ side yet to keep a clean sheet in 2022. Leicester actually shipped 4 goals in the reverse fixture in August and the underlying numbers suggest this form won’t change quickly as they have the highest xG against and have faced the most shots this season. They faced 17 shots for an xG of 3.12 in that loss to West Ham and were dominated throughout.

David Moyes’ wonderful tenure at West Ham continued on Tuesday with a 1-0 win against Watford. The Hammers sit 4^th in the league and will look for a 7^th away win here and to add to their goal tally which sits at 42. Jarrod Bowen has been the star man for one of the league’s best attacks and he has a favourable matchup against young left back Luke Thomas. One of the most prolific heading outfits in the league face off against a Leicester side who have conceded the second most headed goals this season, another route for goals.

Interesting, when Leicester line up against a 4-2-3-1, similar to the one West Ham use, there is a goal every 19 minutes and every game is very open. Leicester and West Ham both rank top 5 in % of PL games with BTTS, and in an open game where both sides have defensive issues, I like the look of over 2.5 goals which has landed in 67% of Leicester games.

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