Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding an average of 4.52 corners per game at the Deutsche Bank Park this season, with five of their last six visitors all reaching the four corner threshold. Their European record is even shakier, allowing 5.64 corners per game on home soil.

Spurs, meanwhile, consistently rack up corners. They’ve hit at least four in 14 of their last 16 away games in all competitions, and in eight of their last 10 in Europe.

Tottenham’s goalkeeper to make three or more saves comes backed by consistent pressure from the opposition. Due to Spurs’ vulnerability in transition and open-play defending, their shot-stopper is routinely kept busy. He’s made three or more saves in every European away match this season, and in 10 of his last 11 on the road across all competitions.

Frankfurt, meanwhile, are relentless at home, forcing the opposition goalkeeper into three or more saves in nine of their last 11 home outings and in all five of their European home fixtures.

Despite his creativity and playmaking influence, Maddison’s discipline often unravels under pressure. He averages 1.44 fouls per 90 this season and has committed at least one foul in 13 of his last 14 starts.

That trend remains consistent on the European stage too, where he’s committed at least one foul in six of his seven continental starts, including a notable three in the reverse fixture against Frankfurt.

Hugo Ekitike to hit the target once feels almost inevitable given his form and role. The French forward has registered 30 goal contributions this season (21G, 9A) and has been particularly impactful in Europe with seven contributions this campaign.

He’s averaging 3.93 shots per 90 minutes with 1.62 of those hitting the target and has tested the keeper in three of his last four games. With goals in each of his last two, including one in the reverse leg, he’s again expected to be Frankfurt’s key attacking threat.

Frankfurt’s imperious home form makes backing them on double chance a well-supported play. They’ve lost just three of 21 games at Deutsche Bank Park this season, scoring in every outing. In Europe, they’ve been even stronger, unbeaten at home in the Europa League with four wins and a draw, including a 4-1 dismantling of Ajax in the last round.

Their momentum continued with a 3-0 weekend win over Heidenheim boosting confidence ahead of this decisive tie. Meanwhile, Tottenham are unravelling on the road. A 4-2 defeat to 16th-placed Wolves marked their fourth straight loss in all competitions, with just one win in their last six on the road, and only three victories in their last 14 European away games. They’ve also lost five of their last seven knockout ties on the road in UEFA competitions and six of their last seven when visiting German sides.

Rodrigo Bentancur to be carded feels like a smart inclusion considering his style of play and tendency to cross the line. Averaging 1.5 fouls per 90, the combative Uruguayan has already been booked 11 times this season, the joint most of any other Tottenham player.

That disciplinary record follows him into Europe, where he has received three yellow cards so far this campaign. A second-leg scenario with increased tension is exactly the kind of environment where Bentancur’s aggressive edge often spills over.

Frankfurt’s output at home improves significantly compared to their road numbers, jumping from 4.77 SOT to 6.05 per game. They’ve hit four or more in 19 of their 21 matches in front of their own fans this season, including every European home fixture.

Tottenham have looked especially open when travelling, conceding an average of five shots on target per away game this season, with every one of their last 11 hosts hitting this line. In Europe, it’s more damning, all five sides they’ve visited have landed at least five shots on target, with Spurs conceding an average of 6.2 per game.

While Ellyes Skhiri's season-long foul rate sits at 0.87 per 90, context is key. He’s picked up six yellows this season, including three in his last seven starts, and in Europe his discipline deteriorates, committing a foul in each of his last five appearances, and earning two bookings this campaign. That average rises to 1.03 fouls per 90 in continental play.

Perhaps most tellingly, his likely direct matchup is James Maddison, a player who draws a notable 3.09 fouls per 90. That battle alone may be enough to tip Skhiri into card territory, especially with tactical fouls required to stem transition or regain control in midfield.