Guaraní v Cerro Porteño
Second and third meet in the national stadium the Defensores del Chaco as both sides recover from hard-fought games in the Sudamericana and Libertadores. Guaraní were on the right side of a 2-1 scoreline while Cerro Porteño saw their early lead wiped out, falling 2-1 to Palmeiras.
Hernán Rodrigo López was missing Néstor Camacho but could welcome back Facundo Barceló who came off the bench to score the winner against Danubio. In defence Walter Clar returned to the starting lineup at left back, another good sign for the team. With Dorrego injured the Aurinegro have been using youngster Luis Martinez in midfield, he will have a big game against a Cerro side that have been very good in possession.
Facundo Sava was 25 minutes away from what would have been a historic win in Sao Paulo against one of the best teams on the continent, Palmeiras. But with the injuries to Pachi Carrizo and Diego Churin the side began to struggle. Robert Morales played well but wasn’t at his sharpest, the striker is now nine games without a goal in all competitions. Claudio Aquino covered every blade of grass in the Morumbi and will surely be given a rest but could appear from the bench.
Both of these sides have found the net with regularity during the league season so far, Cerro Porteño are averaging 1.85 goals per game while Guaraní 1.54. Although the latter have only conceded nine goals this season it has been in nine separate games as they rarely keep a clean sheet away from Dos Bocas.
Vasteras v Orebro
These two sides were separated by just three points in the Superettan table last season, finishing ninth and tenth in the league. They have had very different beginnings to the 2023 campaign, though.
The home team come into this on the back of a slender but impressive 1-0 win against a Helsingborg side that have had a bit of a horror start to the Superettan season.
Sven Peter Markstedt’s Vasteras have started with two victories and a draw in their opening three matches, too. What is especially impressive about their beginning is they have conceded just one goal in those games. That follows on from a 2022 campaign in which they conceded 49 goals in 30 matches.
Orebro’s most recent outing was a poor 2-0 loss at home to Brage, last weekend. The visitors began the campaign with back-to-back goalless draws against Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersund so, three games in, they are yet to notch a goal.
The underlying data, such as expected goals, obviously indicates they have performed better than precisely 0 but not by much. Their current xG rate of 1.05 is the third lowest in the division and also means any sort of underperformance or misfiring will limit them severely, as it has done.
Despite the very different seasons in terms of results, these two have shared a key similarity in terms of a low-scoring start to the campaign. Vasteras’ three matches have consisted of just four goals, whilst Orebro have had just two goals come in their three matches. So, whilst Vasteras remain favourites, especially with their home advantage, it isn’t expected to be a high-scoring thriller.
Girona v Real Madrid
Real Madrid are involved at the very beginning of this midweek LaLiga round and it could be a fun one to tune in to, as Girona are a bold and attack-minded team that actually have a good record against Los Blancos. These teams have only met five times in Spain’s top division, all since 2017, and it’s an even split of two wins each and one draw. Looking at this season specifically, they’ve already played out a 1-1 draw at the Bernabéu.
Both these teams feature in the top four for goals scored this LaLiga season, with Real Madrid having netted 63 and Girona 44. The Catalans have been conceding a lot too, a sixth-highest 43 goals, which means that their matches have been producing a lot of net ripples overall. The average total number of goals in Girona games this campaign has been 2.90, the exact same as for Real Madrid games. Only Almería, who see 2.93 total goals per game, are providing more entertainment in that sense.
With Girona’s starting centre-forward Taty Castellanos returning from suspension, they’ll look to bounce back from a rare low-scoring game on the weekend, when they fell 1-0 at Real Valladolid.
If this game does produce more than 2.5 goals then it would be the 17th time out of 31 games for Girona and the 18th out of 31 for Real Madrid. These are two of just five teams in LaLiga to have more than half of their matches producing over 2.5 goals, and this Tuesday they go head to head.
Plymouth Argyle v Bristol Rovers
Newly crowned manager of the season Steven Schumacher is so close to guiding his team to promotion now. Argyle have been running hot throughout the season, and that has led to several neutrals believing that their stay at the top end of the table will come to an end before the campaign is up. The Pilgrims remain top of the pile though, and it is a testament to Schumacher and his players that they have been able to match the high standards shown by the bigger budget squads of Ipswich Town and Sheffield Wednesday. A big part of Plymouth’s push for the Championship has been their incredible home record, collecting 55 points from a possible 63 at Home Park. Schumacher’s team are a front-footed attacking outfit, especially when playing down in Devon. Joe Edwards and League One Young Player of the Season Bali Mumba have excelled in wing-back roles. Jordan Houghton provides an underrated anchor in midfield that allows the likes of Adam Randell or Sunderland loanee Jay Matete to be more expressive. The attacking midfield roles in Argyle’s 3-4-2-1 have been taken up by the likes of Danny Mayor, Finn Azaz, Callum Wright and Niall Ennis across the season, all of whom have contributed with key goals in key moments. Ennis has also featured up top alongside or instead of top scorer Ryan Hardie and effective Birmingham City loanee Sam Cosgrove.
It’s a relatively short trip southwest for Bristol Rovers whose return to League One has been a successful season. Having played only 42 games so far, the possibility of a top-half finish is still there before the season is up, but survival makes 2022-23 a positive campaign for Joey Barton’s side regardless of their final position. League One Player of the Season Aaron Collins has not hit the exceptional heights of the first half of the season but is still the undoubted star in this Gas team. Striker Josh Coburn, on loan from Middlesbrough, has earned the nickname ‘Teesside Haaland’ with his performances this season. Antony Evans can be an influential attacking midfielder with his creativity and set-piece ability.
Possessing most crucially a game in hand over third place Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth Argyle have the opportunity to get into prime position for promotion on Tuesday night. Win yet another home game at Home Park against a Bristol Rovers side whose season is done, and they will be one more win away from securing a place in the Championship. The Pilgrims should always be fancied in a home encounter, and take pride in their record against bottom-half sides. Accrington Stanley, Exeter City, Milton Keynes Dons, Cheltenham Town, Forest Green Rovers and Cambridge United have all been beaten by a margin of at least two goals down in Devon. Argyle will be keen to add the Gas to that list.
Newport County v Harrogate Town
Newport County may be just playing for position now with three games left this season, but they certainly seemed to be targeting the idea of a top-half finish. 14th as it stands with just four points between themselves and 12th place Sutton United, Graham Coughlan have hit a decent run of form since the middle of March, winning four and losing just two of their last 10 matches. The Exiles are built around a 3-5-2 where goalkeeper Joe Day, central defender Priestley Farquharson, and left-sided defender Mickey Demetriou have been near ever-present. Matthew Baker has broken into that defence since arriving on loan from Stoke City in January. Much like Demetriou, right-wing-back Cameron Norman is one of the most underrated players at League Two level, possessing an excellent all-round game. Will Evans, capable at striker or wing-back, operates regularly on the other flank with Aaron Lewis the alternative on the left if he isn’t pushed into midfield. Top scorer Omar Bogle leads the line in a front two, usually partnered by one of two loanees, either Middlesbrough’s Calum Kavanagh or Manchester United’s Charlie McNeil who has gained a reputation for his prolific goalscoring at youth level.
Possessing a game in hand on all those below them, 21st-place Harrogate Town need just a point at Rodney Parade this Tuesday to secure a fourth consecutive season in League Two. Simon Weaver’s side have spent the campaign above the relegation zone without ever falling in, still built on their main approach of being an attacking outfit that can give as much as it can take. Top scorer Luke Armstrong leads the line in a 4-2-3-1, supported by Alex Pattison, Sam Folarin and exciting Southampton loanee Kazeem Olaigbe. Tenacious captain Josh Falkingham sits in deeper midfield alongside either Levi Sutton or the more creative George Thomson, with Matty Foulds and Toby Sims encouraged to push forward from full-back. Matty Daly and Jack Muldoon look to make an impact in reserve.
An end-of-the-season clash between two teams who are almost definitely both staying in League Two next season, there is always the potential for goals when Harrogate Town are playing. Sulphurites matches average 2.7 goals, Newport matches average 2.3. Harrogate can secure survival with a point this midweek, and they are anything like a side that will shut up shop in order to hang on. Three of their last five games have seen them come from 2-0 down to draw 2-2.
Mansfield Town v Leyton Orient
Mansfield Town need to beat a Leyton Orient side who have already won the League Two title and have nothing to play for now, as shown by their bizarre performance in the final stages against Gillingham.
The Stags remain in the chase for a play-off spot and have a game in hand on the likes of Stockport County, Carlisle United, and Salford City above them which they will be desperate to win. Nigel Clough’s side won 1-0 at home to 3rd position Stevenage over the weekend courtesy of attacker Davis Keillor-Dunn’s early goal and held on for an important three points in their quest for a top-seven finish. Their first-team coach Andy Garner was on media duties afterward and said the performance was ‘incredible’ which will give their players confidence heading into their remaining three fixtures. The Nottinghamshire club have received a huge boost on the injury front with the return of Nottingham Forest loan attacker Will Swan, who has scored nine goals this term, and he will compete with Lucas Akins and Rhys Oates for a place up front now. Mansfield are building momentum at the right time and are unbeaten in their last nine league games as they look to get over the line. They lost in the play-offs last year and will believe they have the quality to go one step further this time around so beating the champions would be a big statement of intent.
Leyton Orient will need to find the motivation from somewhere for their last few matches having already sealed the title now. They have been brilliant in this campaign and can afford to chill now as they start preparing for the transfer window. The London club beat Crewe Alexandra 2-0 at home last time out after goals by midfielder George Moncur and striker Charlie Kelman and their manager Richie Wellens said it has been a ‘pleasure’ to manage the team this season and he will be eager to show what he can do in League One now. On the selection front, key defender Omar Beckles remains suspended which is good news for Mansfield’s forwards with Jamie McCart, who hasn’t played much football since his winter loan switch from Rotherham United, taking his place in the heart of the back four. Orient lost 2-0 in their last away outing at Gillingham which suggests they are no longer playing at full throttle and they will be in for a tricky night against a Stags side who simply need to get a result.
Swindon Town v Stevenage
Swindon Town appear to have turned a corner and will be a tough test for automatic promotion chasing Stevenage.
The Robins were struggling for results under Jody Morris but the former Chelsea and Derby County coach has managed to get a tune out of his players over their past few games. They are unbeaten in their last three fixtures now and backed up their 1-0 win over Bradford City last Tuesday with an emphatic 5-1 victory away at AFC Wimbledon over the weekend after goals by striker Luke Jephcott (x2), forward Jacob Wakeling, defender Tom Clayton, and midfielder Ronan Darcy. Morris said his players ‘deserve’ credit for the way they went about their business and they have certainly found their shooting boots as they look to cause problems for their next opponents. In terms of injury news, goalkeeper Lewis Ward remains out of action until the summer but Sol Brynn has proved to be a useful option between the sticks, although he has conceded in six of his last eight outings. Swindon have endured a difficult campaign and will be hoping for much better next year as they look to get back up to League One. There is always goals in these matches at the end of the campaign and based on their past few performances, you wouldn’t bet against the Wiltshire club causing some problems.
Stevenage will be disappointed after their 1-0 away loss at Mansfield Town last time out and they will be looking to bounce back with a result at the County Ground. If the Hertfordshire outfit were to secure three points on Tuesday night, they would only be one win away from promotion. Their manager Steve Evans said the game could have gone ‘either way’ and his team will need to dust themselves down now and prepare for their next one. Promising 16-year-old forward Makise Evans was handed his debut at Field Mill and it will be interesting to see if he plays a part against Swindon, with Danny Rose, Jamie Reid and Jordan Roberts occupying their attacking positions. Stevenage are 3rd in the table for a reason and have scored 57 goals in their 43 fixtures so far this term which proves they have players up front who can find the back of the net. They have only kept one clean sheet in their last seven though and will be feeling the heat with Stockport County and Carlisle United breathing down their neck below them which could create a few nerves.
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