The main event for the debut MMA event at The Sphere in Las Vegas. We’re taking ‘Suga Sean’ on the nose for this one, despite Merab being priced generously for this one. Plenty of questions have been asked about Dvalishvili's physical condition coming into this one. The Georgian has taken to social media to showcase a serious cut above his eye, along with a clear staph infection evident on his arm in the lead-up. One of the key components of Dvalishvili’s rise to the top of the division has been his cardio, which is sure to be tested with this staph infection. Predict O’Malley to keep this fight at a distance and utilize feints against the wrestling-heavy Dvalishvili, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the aforementioned cut opened up early in the fight. O’Malley boasts elite takedown defence and a price of 1.57 for him to win on the nose seems generous for the main event of UFC 306.

A trilogy fight for the women’s strap at 125 takes the co-main event spot at The Sphere on Saturday night. Defending champion Alexa Grasso comes into this one as the favourite, having shocked the world in submitting Shevchenko back at UFC 285, before playing out a controversial split draw back in September 2023. Odds of over-evens are a generous price for the Kyrgyzstani-born fighter, and we’re taking her to retain her belt on the nose. Many believe the split draw should have been scored in favour of Shevchenko, who reigned over the division for the best part of five years before dropping the belt. Grasso utilized a fantastic game plan in the first fight and proved she was game in the draw just under a year ago, but a year off will do wonders for the kick-boxer Shevchenko. If she can keep this fight on the feet, Shevchenko at odds of 2.10 seems the smart pick given the value.

Both fighters will come into this with a full camp after their initial short-notice matchup was cancelled on the night back at UFC 303 in June. Ortega struggled with the weight cut and was replaced on the night by Dan Ige, who stunningly took the fight on mere hours' notice. Lopes took the win on the night, thus continuing his meteoric rise through the UFC featherweight rankings. Ortega has hinted at a move up to 155 lbs, meaning this could very well be his swansong at featherweight. The bookmakers clearly see the same, pricing the Californian at a hefty 2.38 just to win the fight. Ortega has only fought once in over two years, and while that was an impressive win over Yair Rodriguez, Lopes has strung together an impressive four-fight win streak, three of which by finish. Taking a monster in Movsar Evloev to a decision on five days' notice proves that Lopes is game to hang with the 145 elite despite his short run in the promotion. Expect Ortega to make a move up to lightweight at the conclusion of this fight, and go up off the back of a loss to Lopes in the process.

A straight-up ‘pick 'em’ closes out the prelims on Saturday night. Bookmakers have priced these two evenly for this bout at women’s 135, but we’re siding with the more experienced Aldana at just south of evens for this one. Dumont has been solid in her four-fight winning streak as of late, however, context is important when it comes to looking at these wins. The Brazilian was forced to a decision by then 1-0 Danyelle Wolf back at UFC 279, and taking former champion Germaine De Randamie to a decision back in April. De Randamie then off the back of a nearly four-year layoff. Aldana has only lost to the ‘who’s who’ in the women’s rankings during recent years in the UFC, with losses to Amanda Nunes, Holly Holm, and Raquel Pennington the only blemishes on her record since 2019. In between these competitive losses were impressive KO finishes of the likes of Ketlen Vieira, Macy Chiasson, and Yana Santos. A tough one to call according to the bookmaker odds, but Aldana has the experience against tougher opposition in her UFC run and should get the nod here.