There can be no doubt that it has been a good recent run for Wales. However, it may also help to understand that Rob Page’s side have actually lost the xG battle in their last three matches.

Whilst the Dragons scored early against Turkey last time out and that wouldn’t have helped the xG numbers, it was Armenia who got the early goal in their match and yet they sustained and even grew their advantage in terms of chances created.

The overall trend at home over the last few matches is of clinical Welsh finishing. At the end of the match it is, of course, the number of goals scored that is the most important thing, not necessarily the chances created.

Finland have only won the xG battle in three of their last eight Euro qualifiers, excluding the matches against San Marino. Two of those were against Northern Ireland, now ranked down at 74 in the latest FIFA rankings.

The Nations League double header saw Wales dominate the xG battle in both matches, as well as winning both.

Wales are rightful favourites for this match, they have a good international home record, save the blip against Armenia when all four of the visitors’ shots on target went in. The Welsh have secured a passage to the finals through the play-offs before and the home draw will be key to their performance here.

Wales don’t tend to concede many shots on target at home. They only conceded 2 shots on target against Turkey, one of which was a penalty, Croatia managed only 3, and South Korea only 1 in their recent friendly.

Bearing that in mind, quotes of odds-on around Finnish attackers seem a bit too short to take into a bet builder.

However, there is an angle to try from Finland. If Pyry Soiri gets a start he could be worth looking at for a shot on target. Finland relied on Soiri to find the net against San Marino, which he did so twice from right back. He has played further forward in his career so he is familiar with being in attacking positions and he is a decent price to trouble the Wales goalkeeper.

Wales have a plethora of attacking outputs, their adaptation to the loss of Gareth Bale, and, to an extent, Aaron Ramsey (though the Cardiff man is in the squad) has been to share the attacking load amongst a number of players.

Harry Wilson has been prominent amongst the goals and shots for the modern Wales. Cutting in from the right and shooting with his left is Wilson’s modus operandi and he had three shots on target in the crunch match with Croatia in October.

Ethan Ampadu might be worth a bet at the prices as well. He has had shots on target against Turkey at home and Armenia away, Wales’ last two internationals.

Wales’ home matches have been very tight in terms of which team will win the most corners. They won 7 against Turkey v 5 for the opponents, it was 5-5 v Croatia, 2-3 v Armenia and 4-3 v Latvia.

It was 5-3 to Wales the last time that this fixture was played in Cardiff in 2020 as well, so Wales are probably a fair price on the corner match bet.

Finland went 4-4 with Slovenia, won 9-4 v Kazakhstan, lost 5-2 v Northern Ireland, and lost 7-2 to Denmark in their last four away qualification matches. This shows quite a high corner line in recent matches for Finland, and with Wales having 10 and 12 in their last two qualification matches, trying the overs lines should be a good value play.

Ethan Ampadu is potentially Wales’ most important player at the moment. He has had a superb season for Leeds, playing both in central midfield and in defence, but he is Wales’ fulcrum and has formed an important partnership with Jordan James in recent qualifiers.

Both men are value for at least one foul in this match. Ampadu had 4 in his last match against Turkey, and has committed at least one foul in each of the last four qualifiers in a row.

Jordan James is a much bigger price than his midfield compatriot, but has been getting his foot in as well. He has three fouls across the last two qualifiers himself, and is a keen runner and presser of the ball.

It is a slight surprise to see Glen Kamara priced up as big as he is. Kamara has picked up 5 fouls in his last four Euro qualification away matches, including 2 in Northern Ireland.