The success that Wales showed on the break against Finland will probably inform the approach that Rob Page will take here.

The team will probably remain the same, though Kieffer Moore and Dan James demonstrated their form in making an impact off the bench and both would be ready to start if required.

Wales’ unbeaten record extended to seven matches with the win, with five of those coming at home. The Welsh dominated the xG count against Finland as well, indeed the game was massively helped by that early goal as it broke the game open, with Wales generating over 3xG, and yet conceding 1.45xG as well.

Poland are on a five-match unbeaten run, but the last four of those were at home. They beat the Faroe Islands (#135 in FIFA rankings) away at the beginning of that run but had previously lost to Albania (#64), Moldova (#155), and Czechia (#40) in consecutive away games.

Whilst those stats might support a Wales home win, Poland did do the double over Wales in their recent Nations League campaign in 2022. The 1-0 Poland win in Cardiff did occur against a team that was much weaker than the team that is likely to play on Tuesday, with only 4 of the Welsh players likely to start in both matches. Also, Wales did win the xG battle that day, and out-shot the Poles 13-6 as well. The away match featured only 2 Wales players likely to start on Tuesday.

Wales should be favoured for qualification, even up against an experienced Polish team.

As we know from previous research for the Finland match, Wales don’t tend to concede too many shots on target in their matches. However, Teemu Pukki found his way through on a couple of occasions, and Robert Lewandowski is a very tough man to keep quiet.

The Barcelona striker has had three shots on target in each of his last two internationals and tends to dominate the shot count when he is playing. Taking him to get at least one shot on target is a sensible angle to add onto a bet builder.

Poland have had their struggles away from home though, and Wales have their chances to get shots away as well. Though Harry Wilson tends to take shots from outside the area, he is one of Wales’ most reliable and experienced weapons in this team. He is favoured to have at least one shot on target.

We saw on Thursday that Neco Williams could be used on free-kicks, as well as being the more attacking option of the wingbacks. He is worthy of a bet at an odds-on price, especially as he has one of the highest shot rates of any Wales player likely to start in the game.

Both teams usually play a 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 formation, which will leave a 1v1 battle down the flanks between the four wing-backs.

Nicola Zalewski of Poland is 1/12 to be fouled once or more, Neco Williams is 1/9, Connor Roberts is 4/9, but Poland’s starting right wing-back, Przemyslaw Frankowski is 11/10. This is despite him being fouled more than once a game on average in the current campaign.

His direct opponent on the night will be Neco Williams. Williams is fouled, on average, over twice a game for Wales in the current campaign. Williams also fouls at a rate over one per game, making the case for Frankowski more compelling also.

There is also some juice in the price for Ethan Ampadu to be fouled. Often the Leeds midfielder is seen as the one to do the tough tackling, but he is strong on the ball and Poland will want to shut him down. There will be a lot of congestion on the field, so Ampadu’s price seems temptingly big for a fulcrum of Wales’ midfield.

Turning the tables around, Ampadu also has the second-highest foul rate in the Welsh team, behind only Kieffer Moore, who is unlikely to be a starter here. Ampadu is a short price but it is a decent one for a bet builder, he can be added to commit two or more as well in this highly tense and super-important tie for his country.

Nicola Zalewski is a big price for a foul as well. We mentioned the wing-back battle that is likely to happen and as Zalewski’s foul rate is over an average of one per match, his price seems quite fair for it to happen here, likely against Connor Roberts who is also fouled more than once a game on average.