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Wales v Poland Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Wales v Poland Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Monday 25 March, 20243 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Wales v Poland

📅
Kick Off: Tuesday 26th March at 19:45
🏆
Competition: Euro 2024 Qualifying
📺
Watch Live: BBC iPlayer

Every match in Euro 2024 Qualifying is covered on our bet builder stats tool which is a great resource for bettors ahead of the summer, you can also check out Andy Robson’s Euro 2024 Supporters Guide to whet your appetite ahead of the tournament in Germany. We are committed to keeping you up-to-date with Euro 2024 tips and insight throughout the international break.

Just one more Dragon roar and one more victory on Tuesday night will see Rob Page's Cymru into their third consecutive European Championships finals.

The difficulty does ramp up, as one would expect, from Finland last Thursday, ranked #60 in the FIFA rankings, to #30 in Poland. Wales themselves are ranked #29, so this is a battle of next-door neighbours in the FIFA rankings, which goes some way to explaining on its own how close this match could be.

Wales made short work of Finland. Helped by an early goal that owed a little to questionable goalkeeping, Wales were able to control the majority of the match by sitting back and allowing more possession to Finland, whilst knowing that they would have chances on the break. Wales had 5 big chances in the match, though they also conceded 3.

Poland also had an easy time of it in the play-off semi-final. They cruised past Estonia 5-1, with Robert Lewandowski not even required to grace the scoresheet, though he did manage 8 shots in the match. This win was earned with the helping hand of playing against 10 men for an hour, something that Wales will certainly hope to avoid here.

The stakes are very high for these two proud nations with a place alongside France, Netherlands, and Austria in Group D up for grabs for the victors.

We are able to construct a cheat sheet looking into the last few international fixtures for both nations with the hope of picking out some great bet builder selections for this play-off. Look here for the best bet builder bookmakers for the Euros.

Wales v Poland Cheat Sheet

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This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

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Wales v Poland match stats are available on our bet builder tool and official lineups will be available on there ahead of kick-off.

🏆 Match stats: Welsh victory last time out to provide the blueprint for Polish test

The success that Wales showed on the break against Finland will probably inform the approach that Rob Page will take here. The team will probably remain the same, though Kieffer Moore and Dan James demonstrated their form in making an impact off the bench and both would be ready to start if required. Wales’ unbeaten record extended to seven matches with the win, with five of those coming at home. The Welsh dominated the xG count against Finland as well, indeed the game was massively helped by that early goal as it broke the game open, with Wales generating over 3xG, and yet conceding 1.45xG as well. Poland are on a five-match unbeaten run, but the last four of those were at home. They beat the Faroe Islands (#135 in FIFA rankings) away at the beginning of that run but had previously lost to Albania (#64), Moldova (#155), and Czechia (#40) in consecutive away games. Whilst those stats might support a Wales home win, Poland did do the double over Wales in their recent Nations League campaign in 2022. The 1-0 Poland win in Cardiff did occur against a team that was much weaker than the team that is likely to play on Tuesday, with only 4 of the Welsh players likely to start in both matches. Also, Wales did win the xG battle that day, and out-shot the Poles 13-6 as well. The away match featured only 2 Wales players likely to start on Tuesday. Wales should be favoured for qualification, even up against an experienced Polish team.

Predictions:

⚽ Wales to win @ 2.45

⚽ Wales to qualify @ 1.73

🎯 Shooting stats: Lewandowski a difficult man to stop

As we know from previous research for the Finland match, Wales don’t tend to concede too many shots on target in their matches. However, Teemu Pukki found his way through on a couple of occasions, and Robert Lewandowski is a very tough man to keep quiet. The Barcelona striker has had three shots on target in each of his last two internationals and tends to dominate the shot count when he is playing. Taking him to get at least one shot on target is a sensible angle to add onto a bet builder. Poland have had their struggles away from home though, and Wales have their chances to get shots away as well. Though Harry Wilson tends to take shots from outside the area, he is one of Wales’ most reliable and experienced weapons in this team. He is favoured to have at least one shot on target. We saw on Thursday that Neco Williams could be used on free-kicks, as well as being the more attacking option of the wingbacks. He is worthy of a bet at an odds-on price, especially as he has one of the highest shot rates of any Wales player likely to start in the game.

Predictions:

⚽ Robert Lewandowski to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.20

⚽ Robert Lewandowski to have 2+ shots on target @ 2.0

⚽ Neco Williams to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.60

⚽ Harry Wilson to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.73

🩹 To be fouled stats: Frankowski an outstanding price

Both teams usually play a 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 formation, which will leave a 1v1 battle down the flanks between the four wing-backs. Nicola Zalewski of Poland is 1/12 to be fouled once or more, Neco Williams is 1/9, Connor Roberts is 4/9, but Poland’s starting right wing-back, Przemyslaw Frankowski is 11/10. This is despite him being fouled more than once a game on average in the current campaign. His direct opponent on the night will be Neco Williams. Williams is fouled, on average, over twice a game for Wales in the current campaign. Williams also fouls at a rate over one per game, making the case for Frankowski more compelling also. There is also some juice in the price for Ethan Ampadu to be fouled. Often the Leeds midfielder is seen as the one to do the tough tackling, but he is strong on the ball and Poland will want to shut him down. There will be a lot of congestion on the field, so Ampadu’s price seems temptingly big for a fulcrum of Wales’ midfield.

Predictions:

⚽ Przemyslaw Frankowski to be fouled 1+ times @ 2.10

⚽ Przemyslaw Frankowski to be fouled 2+ times @ 7.0

⚽ Neco Williams to be fouled 1+ times @ 1.61

⚽ Ethan Ampadu to be fouled 1+ times @ 1.67

🛑 Foul stats: Midfield and wing back battles to the fore

Turning the tables around, Ampadu also has the second-highest foul rate in the Welsh team, behind only Kieffer Moore, who is unlikely to be a starter here. Ampadu is a short price but it is a decent one for a bet builder, he can be added to commit two or more as well in this highly tense and super-important tie for his country. Nicola Zalewski is a big price for a foul as well. We mentioned the wing-back battle that is likely to happen and as Zalewski’s foul rate is over an average of one per match, his price seems quite fair for it to happen here, likely against Connor Roberts who is also fouled more than once a game on average.

Predictions:

⚽ Ethan Ampadu to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.14

⚽ Etham Ampadu to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.87

⚽ Nicola Zalewski to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.50

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

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