Sunday night sees the conclusion of Group 4 of League A in the Nations League as Poland travel to Wales, in a must win game for the home side. Whoever wins this game will start the next campaign in league A, and the loser will be relegated. A draw would favour the away side given that they won 2-1 at home.
Wales have picked up one point from their five games so far, but they will feel like it should be so much more. Having equalised in the last minute against the Netherlands, they went on to concede and eventually lose the game. They did this not once, but twice, both home and away. They were much improved in the second half against Belgium after a very poor showing in the first 45. However, they are missing some key players, including Aaron Ramsey, Joe Allen and Ben Davies.
Poland will be favourites to stay up in the division after their win at home. However, they were playing a much weaker and heavily rotated Welsh side, which included several players from League 1 and 2 clubs, due to their playoff final against Ukraine. The Polish side, which had star players like Lewandowski and Zielinski in it, were unconvincing and could easily have dropped points. Last time out, the Netherlands were comfortable in victory against them as they won 2-0 away from home due to goals from Gakpo and Bergwijn.
Wales v Poland Bet Builder Tips
Wales to Win
Wales’ home record is absurd. Before their game against the Netherlands in June, they were unbeaten in 19, winning 13, and should have kept this record going against the Dutch before conceding late on. The Welsh side was heavily rotated because it was their third of five games in 15 days, and they had just poured their hearts into the all-important game against the Ukrainians. The manager, Rob Page’s, record is also very impressive, and he has not lost a lot of games in charge of the country, and only tending to be against teams ranked in the top 10-15 in the World.
Poland are yet to win an away game this calendar year, having drawn two and lost one, including a 6-1 defeat at Belgium. They also haven’t beaten a team in the top 50 ranking in an away game since March 2019, where they edged past Austria 1-0. Given that they didn’t impress in a game at home to a heavily rotated Welsh side, I think there is value in the home side to win and to preserve their status in league A.
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Prediction: Wales to Win
Gareth Bale to Score or Assist
Gareth Bale is Wales’ main man, no matter what his club form is like, and it has been that way for a number of years now. He has 8 goals and 9 assists since 2020 and has turned up in the big moment so many times. Scoring all three goals in the playoffs for them, as well as many goals and assists in the Euros and World Cup over the last six years. There will be even more onus on him to step up this time round given that Wales will be without Ramsey, Allen and Davies, as well as long term absentees David Brooks and Harry Wilson.
On free kicks and penalties, he should have plenty of opportunities to both score and assist. He was given plenty of rest against Belgium having not started and coming on in the 66th minute. He was given the full 90 minutes to rest against Poland in the reverse fixture.
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Prediction: Gareth Bale to Score or Assist
Joe Morrell to be Shown a Card
Joe Morrell has plenty of critics, both at club level and at Wales. He struggles to get into Portsmouth’s side, but behind Allen and Ampadu, he is Wales’ best midfielder. With Allen injured, Matt Smith was given a chance in Brussels, but he did not impress before being taken off with 25 minutes to go. Morrell looked much more composed on the ball and Wales looked a much better side with him on the pitch. Given that, and the fact that he was rested for this game, Morrell should start alongside Ampadu.
In his Welsh career, he’s had 7 yellow cards in 22.1 full 90 minutes. In two of his last 3 competitive starts, he has been booked, including at Poland. He also does not have the protection of Joe Allen behind him and may be caught out or dragged out of position more often in this game. Given that he will have a tough game against Zielinski again, I think there’s value in him to be shown a card here. Wales will also be chucking men forward and I think that they could get caught out on the break.
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Prediction: Joe Morrell to be Shown a Card
Over 3.5 Cards
These are two teams with decent card averages, averaging almost 2 cards per game each. Wales had three cards at Belgium on Thursday. In their last five games, they have had at least two cards in four of those.
The referee for this game, Andris Treimanis is from Latvia. He averages 4.53 cards per game and has given over 3.5 cards in 73.68% of games. Given this, as well as how important it is for Wales, I can see cards here.
Given that this is a massive game for both teams, and one in which Wales need to score and win, the game could become stretched, and this will only result in more cards. The reverse fixture only saw three cards, but the game was much less important and the referee had much poorer stats.
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Prediction: Over 3.5 Cards
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How to watch Wales v Poland in the Nations League?
📅 When is Wales v Poland? / Sunday, 25th September 2022, 7:45PM
🏟 Where is Wales v Poland? / Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff)
📺 What TV channel is Wales v Poland on? / Premier Sports 1 / S4C
🟨 …And who is the referee for Wales v Poland? / A. Treimanis🇱🇹
