Club Brugge v Union Saint-Gilloise
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Wednesday 11th May – 7:30PM KO
Last weekend in the Pro League saw Club Brugge take an enormous step towards their 17th league title by beating Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 away from home. They were certainly fortunate, not least when Union missed a penalty at 0-0, but they secured the three points, and now sit top of the table. Les Apaches must now win this game to retake top spot, and to put the destination of the title back in their own hands.
Fortunately for them, no side is better on the road, with the visitors losing just once away from home all season, and being one of only three sides in the division to have performed better away from home than they have at home throughout 2021-22.
The visitors are unbeaten in 15 games outside Brussels, their last, and only, away defeat in the league coming way back in August. They have found the net in 16 of their 18 away fixtures in the Pro League this season, a hugely impressive run which has seen them scoring 46 goals across those 18 matches.
Meanwhile Club Brugge have a strong, but not impenetrable record at the Jan Breydel Stadion. Although they have won their last 5 in a row at home, they had only won 1 of 4 home games directly before the start of this winning run.
The hosts scoring record is very impressive however, failing to score just once in 18 attempts in front of their own fans this season, that being the 0-0 regular season draw with Union. Despite this 0-0, and the lack of games with both sides scoring this season, all 3 meetings between these two sides have seen double-digit shots for both teams, and each side creating at least 1.0xG.
Union have created an average of 1.8xG across these three games, compared to Club Brugge’s 1.46xG per game. Despite the effective defensive structures employed by both sides, they are both able to create plenty of chances and pose a real threat in these ties.
The visitors now must win, or they will be relying on either Anderlecht or Antwerp to take points off Club Brugge to allow them to overhaul them and win the title, a situation they will be desperate to avoid. Expect to see them pushing hard for all 3 points here, whilst Club Brugge need only a draw. If Union are able to score, the hosts will have to throw everything at them to get back on terms, and if they were able to win, that would leave them just one further win away from the title.
The destination of the title will come down to this game, and I expect a game with plenty of chances for both sides, as they seek to either retain the title, as Club Brugge would by clinching this one, or to win their first title since the 1930’s in Union’s case. The various permutations mean that no matter who scores first, there is an incentive for the other side to immediately seek a goal in response which should lead to a great game, and goals at both ends.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.62 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Anderlecht v Antwerp
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Thursday 12th May – 7:30PM KO
The reverse of this fixture at the weekend saw Anderlecht lay down a real marker. They absolutely blew Antwerp away with a second-half blitz that saw them extend their 1-0 half-time lead to 4-0 by the 54th minute. Francis Amuzu’s hat-trick ensuring that Anderlecht are now three points clear of Antwerp, whilst another win here would confirm Anderlecht’s spot in the final qualifying round of the Conference League; which was about as good as could realistically be hoped when starting so far back from the Pro League leaders.
Anderlecht are not always the most consistent side, and have struggled against sides in and around them in the league, but their home record has been solid throughout the season. With the exception of a 1-1 draw with Gent, they have beaten every side from 4th down to 9th in the division at home, with all but one of these victories being by a 2-goal margin.
The hosts are now unbeaten in 6 games at Lotto Park, including 5 wins in a row before a very respectable 0-0 against Club Brugge last time out in which they were the better side and could perhaps have taken all 3 points. They are unlikely to blow Antwerp away as they did last weekend, but they are certainly the better side when they turn up; and with the chance to book their spot and ensure European football for next season in front of their own fans, they will surely be up for this one.
Visitors Antwerp are in dire form, winless in their last 4 Pro League games, and having won only 2 of their last 5 away games, losing all of the remaining 3. They have scored the fewest goals of any side in either play-off group this season, and conceded more goals than any of their rivals in the championship play-off. Both on paper and in practice they are the weakest side in this play-off group, and their decline has not been a surprise.
Anderlecht create just under 2.0xG per game at home (1.87), whilst Antwerp create only 1.28xG on the road, and concede a horrendous 1.76xGA. They have not always been punished for giving up so many clear-cut chances, but against the big sides you simply cannot keep giving them chances as they will eventually find the breakthrough.
If the visitors do concede, it will be a long way back for a side that has now gone 312 minutes without a goal, and has still yet to score in the post-season. They have lost 3 of their 4 away games against other sides in the championship play-offs, whereas Anderlecht have lost only 1 of 4 home games against their fellow top-4 sides, a 3-1 defeat to Union in the regular season.
Anderlecht have bounced back really well after their disappointing Cup Final defeat, and now look to have their European place all but wrapped up. Antwerp are crashing and burning, after scraping into the championship play-off they are demonstrating why they should never have made it in the first place, and anything other than an Anderlecht win to add to their misery would be a huge surprise.
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Prediction: Anderlecht to Win, 1.5 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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