While West Ham’s home form had been improved lately, their 5-1 loss to Newcastle showed that they are still a long way off the team that qualified for European football just last season. West Ham did play in midweek and struggled to a 1-1 draw with a rotated side on the pitch, however even though some key players were rested, the likes of Rice, Aguerd, Bowen, Coufal and Ings all started. West Ham have had a long season and poor performances will only make them feel more tired mentally aswell as physically. Even worse for West Ham is that they only drew 1-1 against Gent, they will play this game with one eye on the 2nd leg as they do still have a chance of a trophy there. Arsenal have a great record against West Ham, since a 1-0 loss to the Hammers in 2019, Arsenal have won 6 of their last 7 matches against West Ham and they only game they didn’t win they drew 3-3, having gone 3-0 down. Arsenal have already been knocked out of Europe this season and this means they are fully rested ahead of this match and will likely start fast here. Arsenal should be too strong for West Ham and I expect them to continue their title charge with a win here.

Martinelli has had a world class season but doubts were starting to be cast over him after a run of 6 matches without a goal contribution. He has put these doubts to bed though as since then he has 10 goal contributions in 10 matches for the Gunners. Over the course of the season he has averaged 1 shot on target per 90 and backing him to have a shot on target has landed in all of his last 6 matches and 9 of his last 10 matches. Last time Arsenal played West Ham, Martinelli had a shot on target and scored and I think he can be a key man for Arsenal again here.

While Arsenal play a passing game with minimal dribbles attempted, both Arsenal’s wingers are given the freedom to run at the opposition full backs and try and beat their man. This means opposition full backs often commit fouls against Arsenal. Martinelli on the left wing draws 1.22 fouls per 90 and has been fouled at least once in 4 of his last 5 matches. Vladimir Coufal is expected to start at right back as he is one of the first names in the team sheet. Coufal played the full 90 minutes on Thursday so may have tired legs as the match goes on, making him more likely to commit fouls. So far this season, Coufal has averaged 1.16 fouls per 90 and has committed a foul in 5 of his last 7 West Ham matches. Coufal should struggle up against Martinelli here and I expect him to commit at least 1 foul here.

West Ham average the 3rd lowest possession of any team in the league and the Hammers have particularly low possession numbers against the top teams. Against Brighton they had 35% possession, against Chelsea it was 29%, against Manchester City it was 25% and last time they played Arsenal they had just 34%. Arsenal have the 3rd highest average possession in the league so far this season at 59.6% and I expect them to have even more than that here. Therefore, Arsenal passes look to have some good value in them. Martin Odegaard has been sensational for Arsenal this year and has averaged 51.5 passes per match. He has hit 50 or more passes in in 5 of his last 6 starts, only failing to do so against Liverpool in Arsenal’s last match. Arsenal should dominate possession and Odegaard is one of their best players for unlocking a tight defence, he should have the ball enough to attempt at least 50 passes here.