💎 Gem Bet: Lucas Paqueta - Over 0.5 Shots @ 1.40 (bet365)

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Lucas Paqueta has had a shot in each of his last five Premier League appearances and is benefiting from the additional structure that Nuno Espírito Santo is bringing to the side. 

Paqueta is someone who is capable of playing at a much higher level, but sometimes lets himself down with his attitude and work rate. Espírito Santo has a habit of fixing this trait in players, and Paqueta can be the latest to benefit. He missed West Ham’s most recent game due to an accumulation of yellow cards and should come back into the starting lineup here.

Paqueta has had 16 shots across his 11 Premier League appearances this term (1.50 per 90), netting three goals from an xG of 1.58. Nine of his 16 shots have come from outside of the box, which tells me that Paqueta doesn’t need too many invitations to take aim at goal. He’s already just one goal away from matching his tally across the entirety of last campaign and can add to the defensive woes that Liverpool have suffered over recent weeks.

Liverpool have conceded 10+ shots in each of their last seven Premier League matches, really highlighting the issues that Arne Slot’s side are facing at the moment. They’ve conceded tallies of 13, 16 and 12 in each of their last three away matches and don’t show any signs of improving at the back for this encounter.

Paqueta had one shot in this fixture last season as West Ham lost 5-0 to Liverpool at the London Stadium. It should be a more even contest this time around with the issues that Liverpool are facing at the back, and the improved performances that West Ham have put in under Nuno Espírito Santo.

This same pick is priced as low as 1.13 with other major bookmakers.