Football Accumulator Tips Today

Bayern Munich have started the season as you’d expect in the Bundesliga, winning three of their opening four matches and netting more goals than any other side in the process (14).

That scoring power jumps off the page straight away, but what is more impressive for Vincent Kompany’s side is the fact that they’ve only conceded two goals across these games. Schalke were the only side to hold them to a draw so far this season, which was a game that Bayern should have won when looking at the underlying numbers. 

Bayern Munich beat Augsburg 3-2 on the road last season, posting an xG of 4.24 as they outscored the home side - who did quite well to score twice with an xG of just 0.51 from three efforts on target. 

Bayern have actually managed to win on each of their last four trips to Augsburg, so it’s clearly a trip they enjoy and their current form makes it really hard to make a case for the home side despite their decent start to the campaign.

York have settled in really well to the EFL in front of their own fans, winning all four of their home games at the start of this season - netting 12 goals across these games and conceding just three.

York have scored more goals at home than any other side in League Two this season, with only four sides in the division boasting a better defensive record than the newly promoted side. 

They recorded a convincing home victory against Gillingham last time out, coming away 3-0 winners with an xG of 2.21 from 17 shots while the away side couldn’t even muster an effort on target from the six shots they had in the contest.

Northampton have lost each of their last three games ahead of this clash, and sit just one point above the drop zone in the early stages of the campaign - winning just one of their opening seven games. 

They haven’t won an away game this season, and have only scored one goal across their three assignments - making it hard to make a case for them to score here.

Lille have enjoyed a fairly strong start to the season having won three of their opening five games, netting eight goals in the process.

They’ve avoided defeat across their two home games, beating Troyes in a comfortable 2-0 victory after holding PSG to a 2-2 draw in a game that Lille could have got even more out of when looking over the underlying numbers.

Lille only lost four of their 17 home games in Ligue 1 last season, finishing third behind the two main title challengers in PSG and Lens. They found these sorts of games fairly routine last season, avoiding defeat against Le Havre both home and away.

Le Havre are yet to win a game in Ligue 1 this season having lost three of their opening five games. They’ve only scored four goals across these games, which is a real concern as that is the second lowest tally in the division across the opening five matches.

Furthermore, Le Havre will crucially be without starting goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi-Nzau who has had to make more saves than any other keeper so far (19), boasting a goals  prevented tally of 1.50.

Chelsea’s defensive issues are quite deep rooted, the Blues have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 21 Premier League matches - stretching all the way back to a shut out against Brentford back in Liam Rosenior’s brief tenure.

Xabi Alonso’s side faced a sobering 3-0 defeat at Brentford just before the international break, which was a result that highlighted the lack of balance and defensive rigidity of the squad. They’ve seen BTTS in their other four Premier League games, conceding 12 goals across these matches: no side has conceded more goals in the Premier League than Chelsea this season.

Bournemouth are one of only three sides in the Premier League yet to register a win domestically, but they have drawn three of their five matches and have found the back of the net in all but one of their games - with that blank coming against Liverpool just before the international break.

This is usually a very entertaining game, each of the last three clashes between the sides at Stamford Bridge has seen BTTS with the meeting last year ending 2-2 with both sides posting healthy xG numbers (2.31-3.14).

Falkirk are favourites to beat Dundee in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday, but I think this will be a tighter contest than the pre-match odds suggest.

The Bairns sit second from bottom, while fourth-placed Dundee signed off for the international break with a 2-1 win over Motherwell.

Steven Pressley’s side have scored in six of their seven league games this season, with their only blank coming away at Celtic on the opening weekend.

While Falkirk have shown more attacking promise in recent weeks, they remain vulnerable at the back, conceding against 10-man St Johnstone last time out. 

Indeed, John McGlynn’s side have failed to silence their opponents in six of their seven top-flight matches this term, including all three of their fixtures at the Falkirk Stadium.

I’m backing Partick Thistle to score at least once away at Livingston on Saturday.

The Jags got their promotion push back on track with an impressive 3-0 win over Arbroath last weekend.

While Mark Wilson’s side had been stuttering before that, their performances had been better than their results suggested, with a lack of cutting edge proving costly.

That victory should have lifted spirits within the Firhill camp ahead of a trip to Livingston, who lost 2-1 at home to Ayr last weekend despite playing with a man advantage for most of the game.

The Lions have also conceded in recent home games against Stenhousemuir and Inverness.

Thistle will represent a tougher test than either of those opponents, particularly given the firepower at their disposal.

The Jags have scored in two of their three league games away from home this season and won the reverse fixture 2-0, so they look well capable of finding the net again on Saturday.

I rarely go against Arbroath at Gayfield, and they look worth backing in the draw no bet market against Morton on Saturday. 

The Red Lichties are unbeaten in all four of their home league games this season, a run that includes a win over ante-post title favourites Livingston. 

They also saw off Queen’s Park 2-1 in their last home match, which bodes well for another visit from one of the division’s strugglers. 

Morton are the only side across the SPFL still searching for their first league win of the season, having taken just one point from their opening eight games.

Their struggles continued with a 2-1 defeat at home to Raith Rovers last Saturday.

Arbroath also came out on top when these sides met in August, strengthening the case for backing the hosts with the draw no bet safety net.

Stenhousemuir have made a stunning start to the season, so it’s surprising to see them priced up as such big outsiders away at Inverness on Saturday.

Marvin Bartley’s men are strengthening their title credentials with every passing week, having won seven and drawn one of their opening eight league games of the season.

That stalemate came on the opening weekend, meaning the Warriors have since won seven successive Championship matches, including impressive away victories at Queen’s Park, Livingston and Ayr.

A solid defence has been central to that success, and I’m backing them with a +1.5 head start on the handicap against an Inverness side they have already beaten this season.

What’s more, the Caley Jags have won just one of their four home league games this season, with that solitary success coming against rock-bottom Morton.

Hearts look worth siding with to get back to winning ways when they host St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday. 

Wouter Vrancken’s side saw their four-match unbeaten run ended by Falkirk before being held to a 1-1 draw by Kilmarnock.

However, Hearts have won all three of their home league games this season, seeing off both Dundee clubs and St Johnstone.

Those victories came against sides of a similar standard of opposition to that of St Mirren, and I think the Jambos’ superior quality will tell again this weekend.

The Saints went into the international break on the back of a third straight league defeat, losing 3-0 at home to Dundee United. 

That poor run adds to the appeal of backing Hearts to maintain their 100% home record.

Philadelphia have recovered really well from a slow start to the campaign and enter this clash having won each of their last six matches - netting 3+ goals in five of these games.

It’s no secret that Philadelphia have one of the most talented young players to come out of America in recent years with Cavan Sullivan pitching in with 12 goal contributions in the MLS this term despite still being a teenager. It’ll be interesting to see if his planned move to Manchester City materialises now with all the off field issues.

Real Salt Lake have lost four of their last five games ahead of this clash, but did manage to end that run of four consecutive defeats with a 3-0 win over New England last time out, which was a surprising result but one they deserved on the underlying numbers.

Philadelphia should have too much for this Real Salt Lake, even with that morale boosting win the away side earned last time out. Real Salt Lake are also without seven first team members here, including Diego Luna - who is their best player in my view.

There really isn’t much between these sides, San Jose sit slightly higher in the table but both occupy playoff positions in the Western Conference with this game being a good opportunity to spirit those spots.

Colorado notably boast the second best home record of any side in the Western Conference, only league leaders Vancouver have picked up more points in front of their own fans than Colorado with the home side here winning nine of their 13 matches and netting 25 goals in the process.

San Jose have only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches, but have avoided defeat across these games. They ran out 3-1 winners over Portland at home last time out, but did allow Portland to generate an xG of 1.33 and take more shots (18-13).

Furthermore, San Jose actually boast the joint best away record of any side in the Western Conference - once again levelling the playing field between these two as it matches Colorado’s impressive home record. San Jose have netted 24 goals across their 13 away games this term (1.84 per game).

Orlando have been one of my go-to sides for BTTS in the MLS this season, they’ve seen 112 goals across their 27 matches (4.14 per game), which is unsurprisingly more than any other side across the two divisions.

Orlando have lost each of their last three games ahead of this clash, but have seen BTTS in all three of these matches. They’ve also notably been the away side in all of these matches, which is generally where they have struggled all season - winning just three of their 14 games on the road, but still managing to score 25 goals which sums them up quite well.

Columbus have opposite recent form having won each of their last three matches, seeing BTTS in two of these games. They also have a pretty poor record on the road having won just two of their opening 13 matches and have also recently lost their manager following a comment he made to a female referee.

Each of the last five head to head meetings between the sides have seen BTTS, including the most recent clash which saw Columbus come away 2-1 winners in the Open Cup just last month.

Inter Miami are one of the most entertaining teams in football at the moment, there aren’t many sides that can concede 50 goals across 27 matches (1.85 per game) and still sit third in the league having lost just five of these games.

Their scoring power is usually what separates them from the rest of the sides in the division, no side has scored more goals than Inter Miami in the Eastern Conference of the MLS this term (64 - 2.37 per game). 

They clearly trust in their ability to simply outscore the opposition, making them a good team to back for goals at both ends.

DC United have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches, including putting three goals past Western Conference leaders in Vancouver in their most recent away game. 

They should be able to find a way past an Inter Miami side who have only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches - winning just once across these games as well.

Lyon arrive with genuine momentum in the title race. They sit second in Ligue 1, just two points behind Monaco, and their 10 goals are the joint-highest total in the division alongside Strasbourg.

Lens may be 15th, but chance creation has not been the problem. They average around 1.71 xG, rising to 1.84 at home, alongside 14.8 shots and 6.4 efforts on target per game. The concern is defensively: Lens have conceded in all five of their league matches.

Lyon have averaged two goals per league game, alongside 13.4 shots and around 1.48 xG. Their recent competitive results include a 3-1 win against Auxerre, a 2-1 victory at Anderlecht and a 4-0 win over Rennes.

Lens create plenty, Lyon are chasing top spot, and both have clear attacking incentives. That makes BTTS a strong fit for this matchup.

Sporting cannot afford to lose more ground in the title race. They arrive six points behind leaders Porto, who have taken a perfect 21 points from seven matches, while Sporting sit third with 15.

The visitors have scored in every league game so far, producing 17 goals in seven matches. They average around 1.61 xG and 13.4 shots per game, while their five most recent competitive fixtures produced 12 Sporting goals and four conceded, with BTTS landing three times.

Braga are more productive at home, averaging around 1.65 xG and 14.5 shots per game.

Sporting need to push for three points, while Braga have enough attacking firepower at home to cause problems. That combination keeps BTTS firmly in play.

Two of Norway’s most dangerous attacking sides meet here, and the title race adds another layer to the matchup. Viking sit top of the Eliteserien on 50 points, level with Bodø/Glimt, while their 54 goals are the highest total in the league.

Brann remain a major attacking threat at home, averaging around 1.97 xG and 16 shots per game at Brann Stadion. The problem is at the other end: they have conceded 16 goals in 11 home matches, keeping just one clean sheet.

Viking average around 1.87 xG and 16.3 shots per league game, underlining their consistent attacking output.

With Viking fighting for the title and Brann producing strong attacking numbers at home, both teams carry enough attacking threat to make BTTS stand out.

Yasin Ayari is averaging 2.72 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and that figure could rise further while Jack Hinshelwood remains out through injury. His absence has pushed Ayari into a more advanced midfield position, giving him more freedom to make runs into the box and look to get on the end of crosses.

The Swedish international landed this selection against Arsenal just before the break, recording two attempts during Brighton’s impressive 3-0 victory against the title-holders. He also scored for Sweden against Romania during the Nations League, so he should come into this full of confidence. Sunderland have won only one of their opening five league matches, making this a favourable matchup to target Ayari.

Reece James averaged 1.05 shots per 90 across all competitions for Chelsea last season, with that figure rising to 1.22 at Stamford Bridge. His attacking involvement has increased significantly under Xabi Alonso, who has pushed Reece James into midfield. The Englishman missed out against Brentford with a hamstring injury, but he should be fit to start this weekend. 

James is averaging 2.46 shots per 90 this season, and he has recorded multiple efforts at goal in all four starts. That includes three shots against Arsenal at the Emirates, despite that being a tough matchup for Chelsea. This clash against Bournemouth looks much better to target Reece James, as the Cherries are yet to win in the Premier League this season.

It has been a difficult start to life in the Premier League for Alvaro Arbeloa, as Fulham have only picked up two points from their opening five matches. They have scored five goals during that sequence, and Josh King has accounted for two of them.

The 19-year-old has established himself as a key player for Fulham in an advanced midfield position, and he has landed this selection in four of his five starts across all competitions. King has also recorded multiple shots in every Premier League start this term, which shows how involved he is in the final third. No player has recorded more shots on target than Josh King this campaign for Fulham.

The international break arrived at a good time for Man United, as they have failed to win any of their last three matches. Michael Carrick’s side will be desperate to bounce back strongly at Old Trafford, and this looks like the perfect matchup against a Tottenham team still searching for their first league victory. 

Bryan Mbeumo has been one of Man United’s most consistent players, as he has scored twice so far this campaign. The Cameroon international has also landed this selection in all five league starts, including three shots against Man City, and five efforts against Fulham. Mbeumo also scored against Spurs during Man United’s 2-0 victory at Old Trafford last season, so he should be looking forward to this matchup.

With three goals scored from six appearances in all competitions, no Brentford player has been more efficient in front of goal than Kevin Schade. The German international is averaging 2.38 shots per 90, and he has landed this selection in four of his five starts. Brentford have been excellent in the final third this season, and they are unbeaten in seven matches across all competitions. 

Meanwhile, Villa have only won one of their opening five matches, one of which was against Spurs who currently sit rock bottom of the league standings. They have looked vulnerable defensively, and Schade will hope to capitalise on that at Villa Park.

With Mohamed Toure out injured, 0.99 goals per 90 in the Championship this season and 1.36 last season, for Norwich, the scorer of over 30% of their goals so far this term, there’s an opportunity to get Swansea onside here, after all - they’re top of the league.

The visitors still look like a side capable of pushing for a play-off position, but they cannot be trusted defensively.

They’ve conceded over two goals per game in the league, and lost three of their four away trips so far.

Swansea have covered this bet in 7/8 league outings, have conceded only six from their eight games and can hurt a Norwich side who conceded four or more goals in three games in a row going into the international break.

The visitors have to win by two or more goals for this bet to lose.

Burnley made the bold, and very questionable, decision to stick with Nicky Hayen, despite the newly-relegated side failing to win a game in their opening eight in the league (4D, 4L).

Watford have not been convincing this season, but I don’t think they’ve been bad to the point where they should be 3.10 outsiders at home against a winless side that sit rock-bottom.

Burnley are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, if that runs continues at Vicarage Road they’ll have to score three for the bet to lose.

It's chaos at Peterborough, they're a team to oppose this weekend.

The club almost denied they'd hired Robbie Savage before he was eventually announced, it was bizarre behaviour that will've only further frustrated a disgruntled supporter base.

There's been plenty of turbulence on the Leicester end as well, but they have looked like a top six quality side when they've turned it on this season and it was always going to take time for them to adapt to Russell Martin's extreme methods.

Posh have picked up one point from a possible 12 away from home this season, with a -7 goal difference across that quartet, and the extra time on the training ground should've done Leicester good over the last few weeks as they look to gel a mixture of youngsters and players with experience above the level.

They can justify strong favouritism in this one, and go some way to exposing the bold Savage appointment.

Reading are missing League One’s runaway top goalscorer, Jack Marriott, and key attacking cog George Earthy.

That duo have scored 59% of Reading’s goals so far this season, and while MK Dons are winless after seven league games - they’ve drawn six of them, so it feels unlikely they’re going to be relegation battle fodder this term.

They built some confidence with 4-1 and 7-1 wins during the international break and have only conceded twice at home in the league, from three games, drawing all three.

Reading are winless away from home in the league, and though their attacking process has been strong, it’s very unlikely they’ll assert themselves against a physical MK side as they would’ve done at full strength.

This is the first of back-to-back home games for MK, Paul Warne may not survive in the role if they don’t get a win on the board.

This game screams goals.

Bristol Rovers have scored in 4/4 home games and Barnet have found the net in every game, the visitors have seen this bet land in 7/7 in the league.

Barnet eased aside Rovers 4-0 and 2-0 last season, with both games coming in December, but Rovers have been a different beast since and have won all four of their home league games.

This could be a game to look back to at the end of the season and see if it went on to decide the title or the promotion race, it’s two of the league’s best attacks who’re yet to look reliable defensively.

Rovers have conceded two or more goals in 3/4 in League Two, and Barnet have conceded a first half goal in each of their last three.

Salford have won 5/6 in the league, unbeaten during that run and Cheltenham were beaten 2-0 by 16th-placed Accrington last weekend.

Cheltenham have unsustainably overperformed going forward, scoring 16 from 10.8 xG, and have a higher total xG conceded than any other side.

League Two top scorer Charlie McCann is suspended for the hosts, and first choice left back, Joe Tomlinson is a doubt, with big money summer signing Luke Molyneux ready to cause havoc down Salford's right - he's scored once and assisted three times in his last four.

The odds look generous considering Cheltenham's unsustainable process and if Salford get Macaulay Langstaff on a run, he netted the only goal of the game last time out, they'll be hard to catch.

Brighton have started the season in excellent form, but they still have one of the worst disciplinary records in the Premier League. In fact, they have picked up 12 yellow cards in five matches - only Hull, Bournemouth, Sunderland and Nottingham Forest have been carded more often than the Seagulls. Fabian Hurzeler wants his men to press strongly in midfield, making this a great matchup to target Enzo Le Fee. 

The Frenchman is averaging 2.38 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, with that figure rising to 2.67 at the Stadium of Light. He has drawn 14 fouls across six competitive appearances, including five during Sunderland’s Europa League victory over AZ Alkmaar. The Frenchman sees plenty of possession in Sunderland’s midfield and regularly carries the ball into congested areas. Brighton’s aggressive approach should give him opportunities to attract contact whenever he turns away from pressure.

John McGinn is averaging 2.99 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has been fouled multiple times in seven of his eight starts. Unai Emery has had McGinn starting on the right wing this season, and he usually stays wide to try and stretch the play. 

That should put McGinn directly up against Keane Lewis-Potter, as he has been operating at left-back for Brentford. The 24-year-old prefers playing further forward, so isn’t used to having as much of a defensive responsibility. He has committed nine fouls across his five Premier League starts, averaging 1.91 fouls per 90. This matchup against McGinn out wide looks optimal to target this market again.

Wesley Fofana will have to deal with Evanilson this weekend, and that is a matchup to keep an eye on. The Brazilian international likes to press aggressively from the front, and his foul numbers have increased significantly since Marco Rose took over as Bournemouth manager.

Evanilson averaged 0.88 fouls per 90 across all competitions last season, but that figure has risen to 1.81 this campaign. He has recorded multiple infringements in four of his six starts, including two fouls against both Man City and Liverpool, respectively. 

Meanwhile, Fofana has drawn exactly two fouls in each of his last three league starts, which shows how he can be adept at drawing contact, and alleviating some pressure on his side by getting free-kicks.

Omar Marmoush has started all five league games for Tottenham since arriving from Man City, operating either from the left or through the middle. If he returns to the wing at Old Trafford, he should find himself directly against Diogo Dalot.

Marmoush has drawn at least one foul in each of his last five Premier League starts, and he is averaging 1.88 fouls drawn per 90 for his new club.

The Egyptian is usually quite positive when he gets the ball, looking to turn and beat his man, which can make him a difficult player to contain. Dalot’s foul record has been inconsistent, but his numbers tend to increase when playing against a more direct winger. He committed three fouls against Man City before the international break, and two when facing Tottenham at Old Trafford last season.

It has been a mixed start for Ipswich, who have recorded two wins and three losses in their opening five Premier League matches. The Tractor Boys have looked a bit weak defensively at times, but they have been able to pose a danger in the final third, and Julio Enciso is a key reason for that. 

The Paraguay international has landed this selection in all five starts overall, including two fouls drawn against both Sunderland and Man United - Ipswich had an average of just 39% possession in those matches. Playing at Portman Road against a struggling Fulham side, Ipswich should be able to exert much more control on proceedings, which makes this price appeal.

Oliver Glasner returns to Selhurst Park for the first time since leaving the club to join Nottingham Forest and I’m a bit concerned about his former club this season from what I’ve seen so far.

Crystal Palace have only managed to win one of their opening five Premier League games, with that victory coming against a Fulham side who I also expect to struggle based on the early signs.

What has been particularly alarming about Palace’s performances so far is how open they look at the back, conceding 11 goals across their five games with only Chelsea (12) conceding more goals in the Premier League so far.

There seems to be an air of discontent too, Sarr and Mateta both pushed for moves away from the club during the summer and there have been rumours of Pierre Sage already having disagreements with the higher ups at Palace.

Forest have scored four goals across their five games so far, but have recorded an xG of 7.30 from these matches. I think they are in a better spot than Palace at the moment and should be able to benefit from the defensive issues currently troubling Sage’s side. 

This is the game of the weekend, everyone will be watching to see how Anfield greets Manchester City following the news that dominated the second half of the international break that City had been found guilty on almost all of their 115 charges.

It’s easy to get sucked into the narrative around the game, but I'm focusing on what I’ve seen from these sides on the pitch so far - with City entering this game having won all five of their Premier League matches, scoring the second most goals of any side in the division (13) behind Brighton (16).

City have scored in all three of their away matches across all competitions against Palace, United and Porto - scoring multiple goals in two of these assignments. They also take on a Liverpool side that is depleted following the international break with Gakpo, Isak and Jacquet all being doubts for this game.

Liverpool have only managed to keep one clean sheet across their four games at Anfield this term across all competitions. I think they’ll miss the presence of Jacquet in particular here, leading to City having enough chances to find the back of the net.

If you’ve been keeping an eye on Serie A this season then you will have noticed a substantial increase in goals and this is directly linked to the rule changes that have been introduced in the league this season which make it a much more enjoyable product.

Only 10 sides in Serie A have actually managed to keep a clean sheet so far this season, highlighting exactly how these rule changes have led to more goals. Sassuolo are one of those teams, having conceded nine goals across their opening five games of the campaign.

Milan haven’t fared much better defensively with only two clean sheets from their opening five games. Ruben Amorim’s style is very chaotic and almost always leads to chances at both ends, which is something Sassuolo can benefit from as they’ve managed to score as many goals as they’ve conceded this season (9).

Real Betis are such a hard team to beat when they’re in front of their own fans and have won each of their three home games at the start of this campaign.

They’ve won these games without conceding a goal too, being the only side in LaLiga to keep a clean sheet in each of their three opening home matches. Their scoring power could be better from these games, but the overall control is worth factoring in to any angle in this game.

Osasuna have struggled on the road in LaLiga so far this season, winning just one of their three away matches. They’ve conceded 10 goals across these games (3.33 per game) - which is the third highest tally in LaLiga for sides when travelling away from home.

Betis beat Osasuna 2-0 in this fixture last season, and I can see a similar sort of scoreline playing out here with how both sides have started the season. I can’t see Osasuna being able to find a way past this stubborn Betis backline, and even if they do - it’s likely that they are outscored with their poor defensive record on the road.