💎 Gem Bet: Oliver Arblaster - Over 0.5 Fouls Committed @ 1.83 (bet365)

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I think that this has been overpriced, and I think that I understand why.

Arblaster is only just back from a long injury layoff, and in his two starts since his return he is yet to commit a foul.

This is obviously not great form for this bet, but that is also what is dragging down this price.

It does take a bit of a leap of faith, but going back into Arblaster's history, he is actually a fairly regular fouler. He plays in deep lying midfield, which is a position in which a lot of fouls are committed, and his fouls committed record last season in the Championship was 0.74 fouls per 90, which included five in his last seven starts.

Direct opponents are likely to include Ben Sheaf, who is being fouled at a rate of 1.49 per 90, and has been fouled in 10 games in a row, and Lewis O'Brien, who is fouled 1.82 times per 90.

Other bookies are as short as 1.33 on this bet.

The conditions are there for Arblaster to commit at least one foul as he physically gets up to speed on his return to the league.